As I have mentioned for the last year or two, I still think the Nasdaq Composite eventually gets to its old March 2000 high of around 5100-5200. It will probably get there over the next 6-18 months, however, it will not be an easy ride up. There will be pullbacks, shakeouts, and quick corrections along [...]
I sent this note out to my clients earlier in the week. If you are interested in our Managed Account Products, please email me at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com. After QE-1 ended, the market dropped -17%. After QE-2 ended, the market dropped -21%. Now that Operation Twist/QE-3 is over, many believe the market will drop again. In my [...]
The following Fox Business video is a market discussion with Charlie Gasparino, Liz Claman, and me. Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com I can be reached at: jfahmy@zorcapital.com. Follow me on Twitter @jfahmy Follow me on StockTwits @jfahmy
For the past month, I have been cautious on the market for one main reason: Too much distribution. Since I first mentioned it on this blog, the institutional selling has accelerated and the Nasdaq Composite has now seen 15 distribution days in the past 31 trading sessions (since 9/3/14). I am NOT saying a crash is [...]
This article is mostly for traders who vary their investment levels. If you are a passive long-term investor who is fully invested at all times, just realize that there are sacrifices. In other words, you might ride things up or down longer than you expect. That's why it's important to define yourself and have conviction in [...]
In a Blog Post on September 22, I wrote: "If you are a trader, there is nothing wrong with raising some cash and waiting for more positive signs to appear." Since then, the market has continued to see distribution (professional selling). Last Thursday and Friday (10/2 and 10/3), the market bounced from an oversold condition [...]
Today (10/2/14), the market sold off early but rallied back on strong volume. Here are my thoughts: 1) I like how the Russell 2000 $IWM undercut the low it made earlier this year (2/5/14) and outperformed today. The index has led us on the way down. Now, we need to see if it can lead [...]
Here is a pattern I have noticed in the market about 10 times over the past 2 years: 1) The market goes on a 3-6 week run. 2) The run usually stalls when we get extended from the moving averages, bullishness increases (based on many sentiment measures), and active investment managers are aggressively long the [...]
I always try to keep an open mind when it comes to the stock market. I look at the positive and negative signs and adjust my investment levels accordingly. Unfortunately, I am seeing more negative signs right now and feel that some caution is warranted. NEGATIVES: 1) The number one sign I use to evaluate [...]
For the past few weeks, the financial media has not stopped talking about the Chinese company Alibaba, which is going public this Friday. My biggest concern is that the retail investor is going to get screwed because they have been brainwashed that this will be the greatest IPO ever and they HAVE to buy it. [...]