Market Thoughts Into Year-End

I sent this note out to my clients earlier in the week. If you are interested in our Managed Account Products, please email me at: After QE-1 ended, the market dropped -17%. After QE-2 ended, the market dropped -21%. Now that Operation Twist/QE-3 is over, many believe the market will drop again. In my [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:49-04:00November 1st, 2014|Tags: , , , , |

Caution Warranted

Last weekend, I wrote a post about the lack of "New Ideas" in this market. On Tuesday night, I posted a video saying I was "short-term cautious." I know it hasn't paid to say ANYTHING bearish over the past 18 months because EVERY DIP has been bought, but this pullback feels different. I'm noticing that [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:50-04:00March 13th, 2014|Tags: , , |

A Seasonally Strong Time of the Year

Nothing has changed with my Fourth Quarter Game Plan that I outlined on 9/16/13. 1) There will be no Fed taper until next year. 2) The S&P 500 could see +5-7% upside from here, but individual stocks could potentially see significantly more upside. My feeling is that individual stock pickers will be rewarded more than [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:51-04:00October 17th, 2013|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |

Two Reasons The Market Will Make New Highs Later This Year

REASON #1 As many of you know, I use the price action of leading stocks to help me determine the overall health of the market. Everything else is just noise. When the market corrected in June, I thought we could be heading into a deeper correction...but something interesting happened. As I did my nightly screening work [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:52-04:00July 4th, 2013|Tags: , , , , |

Three Summer Scenarios

On 5/28/13, I wrote a blog post about how I lightened up my equity exposure. The S&P 500 was at 1660 and proceeded to drop over 60 points. When the S&P 500 found support on its 50-day moving average (around 1600 on 6/6/13), I began to increase my exposure as discussed here. Since then, the [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:52-04:00June 24th, 2013|Tags: , , , , |

A Few Words of Caution

Every night, I go through my stock screens and look at approximately 1,000 stocks. Why? Because this is the way I was taught to evaluate the overall health of the market. If I find tons of strong fundamental companies building sound technical bases, breaking out on strong volume, and holding their gains, I feel confident about exposing my capital [...]

By |2016-11-26T07:10:55-04:00July 26th, 2011|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , |