Q3 statistics in a year with a strong January: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1680198967181672449
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:20 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 11:00 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
4) 15:15 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CRM, ADBE, SNPS, AI, DT
5) 16:55 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, MRVL, ALGM
6) 17:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: XBI (ETF), KRYS, ABOS, RETA, ITB (ETF), DXCM, ONON, DECK, LULU, META, UBER, CAT, BKNG, CMG, SHAK, SDGR, DKNG, RXST, QTRX
7) 23:20 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Over the past month or so, I discussed to expect seasonal strength during the last week of June and into the first three weeks of July. We got that strength and I’m glad to hear that many members took advantage of it. Coming into this past week, I mentioned that if the strength continued, I would look to lighten up my exposure, and to start expecting a normal pullback over the seasonally weak months of August and September. That’s exactly what I did, as I reduced my exposure this past week from approximately 85% invested down to 50% invested. In my efforts to help members anticipate some potential moves in the market, I outlined in recent videos the reasons why I am expecting a pullback: 1) The indexes are extended. 2) The upcoming seasonal weakness. 3) Every few months, the major indexes have a normal visit to their 50-day moving average. 4) Sentiment is reaching the higher end of many sentiment measures.
As always, what you should do depends on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. If you are longer-term, learn to deal with normal volatility along the way. If you are shorter-term, there’s nothing wrong with locking in some profits in order to have cash available when the indexes and many leading stocks pull back. Either way, stick to the three guidelines of: 1) Using strong stocks and ETFs. 2) Getting strong entry points. 3) Managing your trades as best as possible. The second point is especially important right now because the indexes and many stocks are extended. I am counting on members to show some patience and discipline until things consolidate to logical support (21-day and 50-day). In the meantime, use lighter positions and keep your expectations realistic. Many members told me they experienced strong gains over the past month or two, but please realize it’s been a strong market. If we have a normal consolidation, protect those gains and be ready for the next strong run, which could potentially occur in the fourth quarter. Again, patience and discipline is key right now. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
7/21/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large trade sells to open 10,000 January $390 ITM puts for $22.15,
over $22M in puts sold showing strong confidence for current levels holding by year end
7/21/23 Skechers (SKX) opening seller of 1400 January $65 calls for $1.70
7/21/23 Shake Shack (SHAK) buyer of 1000 August $77.50 calls at $4.40, adjusting July $72.50 calls
7/21/23 Chevron (CVX) seeing 1000 Oct $150 puts sell to open late day at $3.50 bids, reports 7/28
7/21/23 Oneok (OKE) opening sale of 4763 Sept $65 calls at $2.71, adjusts July $62.50 short calls
7/21/23 American Express (AXP) seeing a large opening sale for 11,000 September $155 puts at $1.45
7/21/23 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) seeing 700 August 25th $310 puts sell to open at $2.50
7/21/23 TG Therapeutics (TGTX) seeing 2000 November $21/$19 bull put spreads sell to open at $1.00
7/21/23 UnitedHealth (UNH) large late day buyer of 1900 December $540 calls at $13.75 up to $14.10 in aggressive buys
7/21/23 Amazon (AMZN) trade sells to open 1000 February $130 puts for $11.42, adjusting January short puts
7/21/23 Unity Software (U) seeing 1300 Feb $40 puts sell to open for $5.75, put sales been popular in the name on dips
7/21/23 Microchip (MCHP) with 1465 August $90 calls sell to open at $3.50, adjusting July short calls
7/21/23 Salesforce (CRM) seeing 1600 Aug 25th $230 calls sell to open for $8.08, adjusting Sept short calls, captures earnings 8/23
7/21/23 Dell (DELL) opening sale of 3400 Oct $52.50 calls at $3.90, adjusting July short $45 calls
7/20/23 McDonald’s (MCD) buyer of 808 Oct $300 calls for $7.42, adjusts the July $290 calls, reports next week
7/20/23 Lululemon (LULU) with 2650 August $410 calls bought for $3.85 aggressive offers
7/20/23 Rivian (RIVN) seeing 1500 October $25 puts sell to open for $3.46
7/20/23 Tesla (TSLA) buyers of 2300 August 25th $255 ITM calls at $28.85 to $29.25, adjusting July calls
7/20/23 Netflix (NFLX) large opening sales of 1225 September $410 puts sold for $9.30
7/20/23 Lyft (LYFT) seeing large buyers for more than 20,000 Sept $15 calls at $0.55 to $0.65
7/20/23 Helmerich & Payne (HP) with 2000 Aug $40/35 bull put spreads sold to open at $1.05, reports 7/26
7/20/23 J&J (JNJ) opening sales of 2000 September $165 puts at $3.60
7/20/23 BridgeBio (BBIO) seeing a buyer of 1100 Sept $35 calls at $3.80
7/20/23 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 1300 September 2024 $250 deep ITM calls bought for $126
7/20/23 Google (GOOGL) reports next week with opening sales of 5000 July 28th $123 calls sold for $3.05 bids
7/20/23 Google (GOOGL) also with 2600 Sept 1st $126 calls sell to open for $4.35 bids
7/20/23 Crowdstrike (CRWD) seeing 1400 Aug 4th $155 calls bought $3.43, adjusting $157.50 calls
Nasdaq (QQQ) into the dip seeing a large opening sale of 8500 August $385 ITM puts for $9.05, over $7.6M showing confidence in pullbacks