Q3 statistics in a year with a strong January: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1680198967181672449
August Statistics: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1682613673318129665
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:30 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
4) 11:30 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CRM, ADBE, SNPS, AI, DT, MDB
5) 13:35 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, MRVL, LRCX, ALGM
6) 15:20 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: XBI (ETF), KRYS, ABOS, ITB (ETF), XLE (ETF), XOP (ETF), SLB, TDW, BKR, VLO, BKNG, SDGR, DKNG, ONON, DECK, RXST, QTRX, UBER
7) 19:40 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In recent videos, I discussed that I am expecting a normal pullback over the next month or two for the following reasons: the indexes are extended, we’re heading into two seasonally weak months, a visit to the 50-day would be normal price action for the major indexes, and the higher bullish sentiment. In this video, I stress five points: 1) One goal of this product is to help you understand normal price action. After an index or stock has a decent move higher, some sideways consolidation should be expected to digest those gains. Please keep in mind that I’m talking in terms of probabilities. 2) The market is healthy 2-3 times per year. Those healthy times usually last about 8-12 weeks, and we just had one of those periods. Again, I’m talking in probabilities. 3) I’m by no means bearish. I’m just reminding members to keep your expectations realistic, as I am not expecting any significant progress in the major averages over the near-term. 4) I’m not saying the market will go straight down to the 50-day. We will likely oscillate and there will be sector rotation along the way. 5) I am very open-minded when I approach the market and realize that I can be wrong. That is why I will take this day-by-day, and I still remain 40-50% invested to hopefully participate if we move higher.
My game plan over the near-term includes those three key factors of: 1) Using strong stocks and sector ETFs. 2) Getting strong entry points. 3) Managing your trades as best as possible. The main two points I would like to add over the near-term is to be VERY PATIENT while waiting for stocks to reach logical support levels, and to use lighter positions in case the market sees volatility next month. During this time, I will be paying attention to relative strength and constantly curating the watch list. As always, I encourage members to make decisions based on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Monday, July 31st at 7PM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
7/26/23 Energy ETF (XLE) seeing a large buyer of 25,000 October $80 puts at $1.53 offers
7/26/23 Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) calls hot again this time with 16,000 Sep. $34 bought up to $0.65
7/26/23 Crocs (CROX) large trade opens 750 January 2025 $180/$100 bull risk reversals for a $1.60 credit
7/26/23 Dutch Bros (BROS) unusual 600 April 30 calls bought for $4.60
7/26/23 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) buyers of 1300 Sept $130 calls at $5.00 to $5.30 offers
7/26/23 AbbVie (ABBV) seeing a large opening sale of 10,000 Sept $150 calls for $1.62 bids
7/26/23 Nvidia (NVDA) August 525 calls hot early 4150X bought
7/26/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 200 February $465 calls for $66
7/26/23 Amazon (AMZN) Aug 11th (W) $130 calls close 13,500X but 4000 Aug $131 calls are bought to open $4.65
7/26/23 Okta (OKTA) another 1600 Nov $80 calls with buyers $4.95 offer where 4000 bought recently
7/26/23 Micron (MU) large opening seller 2000 March $65 puts for $5.55
7/25/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 1500 Dec. 2025 $360 puts sold to open 28.95
7/25/23 TJX (TJX) seller 1500 Oct. 80 puts to open at $1
7/25/23 Elf Beauty (ELF) buyer 1500 August $120 calls $4.60 to $4.75
7/25/23 Sweetgreen (SG) seeing 1500 August 16 calls bought 1.05 to 1.10 into earnings 7-27
7/25/23 MGM Resorts (MGM) opening seller 1475 September $47 puts 1.39 to 1.32
7/25/23 Valero (VLO) buyer 3400 September $130 calls $4.05 as August bull risk reversals adjust
7/25/23 UnitedHealth (UNH) buyer of 200 Oct $520 calls at $16.06, adjusting Sept $500 calls
7/25/23 KB Home (KBH) with 1600 Oct $55 calls buying midday for $3.50 offers
7/25/23 Google (GOOG) 1500 Aug 118 puts sell to open 2.44
7/25/23 Datadog (DDOG) with 2000 Aug $135 calls bought for $1.85
7/25/23 Datadog (DDOG) also 1400 August $115 puts sold to open 6.90 to 6.70.
7/25/23 Microsoft (MSFT) with 4900 August 11th (W) $350 puts opening for $12.40 ITM ahead of results
7/25/23 Microsoft (MSFT) buyers of 6000 September $390 calls at $3.50 to $3.80 in three large lots
7/25/23 Microsoft (MSFT) also 1000 March 270 puts sold to open 4.55
7/25/23 Apple (AAPL) opening seller 1000 Dec. 2024 $190 puts $15.50
7/25/23 Fortinet (FTNT) unusual buy 400 Jan. 2025 $105 calls $6.60 to $6.70, far OTM
7/25/23 Broadcom (AVGO) with 200 Jan $920 puts sold to open at $73.10 to $74
7/24/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 4000 September $397 calls $3.26 offer
7/24/23 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) into strength with 2500 September $135 puts bought $4.35
7/24/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) opening sale 3500 November $190 puts for $5.19
7/24/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also 1800 April 175 puts sold to open 5.02
7/24/23 Tesla (TSLA) seeing buyers in September $315 calls 15,000X for $3.85 to $4
7/24/23 Celsius Holdings (CELH) buyers 525 Oct. 100 ITM calls $47 to $47.50
7/24/23 Crocs (CROX) opening seller 500 March 105 puts for 10.15
7/24/23 Valero (VLO) with 4000 August $130 calls bought into strength up to $2.56
7/24/23 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) buyer 500 November $135 calls $5.45 offer
7/24/23 Schlumberger (SLB) with 2500 Oct. 60 calls sold to open 2.24
7/24/23 DexCom (DXCM) with 500 February $135 calls sold to open 12.30
7/24/23 Google (GOOG) sweep buyer of 1000 Aug $123 calls at $4.35
7/24/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 1500 March $75 puts sold to open $2.26
7/24/23 Microsoft (MSFT) also now with a large opening seller of 1150 June 2024 $330 puts for $22.65
7/24/23 Nvidia (NVDA) $6M buy of 500 June 2025 $440 calls for $130.63
7/24/23 IonQ (IONQ) size buyer 1000 September 12.50 calls for $3.20
7/24/23 Snowflake (SNOW) with 250 October $175 puts sold to open 17.40
7/24/23 Broadcom (AVGO) with 850 September $930 calls sold to open $33
7/24/23 Apple (AAPL) seller to open 1000 September 2024 $190 puts for $14
7/24/23 Meta (META) seeing 5000 January 2025 $550/$250 bullish risk reversals open for $18.41 credit, continues to see upside longer dated positioning