Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 14:10 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, ISRG, META, TSM, ONON, TSLA, PLTR, AVGO, RKLB
4) 18:25 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NOW, CRM, MSFT, APP, FTNT, CYBR, RBRK, TWLO, NET, KD, PSTG, INTA
5) 22:15 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), SMTC, MRVL, ALAB, ANET, CRDO
6) 23:40 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: NTRA, VRT, VST, CEG, NRG, GEV, SEI, GEO, YPF, WIX, CLS, LUNR, RDW, HWM, EQT, WMB, EXE, SPOT, FOUR, BROS, DECK, HOOD, RDDT, NBIS
7) 31:05 Stocks Near Buyable Ranges: AVGO, SPOT
8) 33:25 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
A big positive for the market on Friday, January 17 was the follow through day (FTD) for the Nasdaq Composite, as it also regained its 50-day moving average last week. The S&P 500 also regained its 50-day, however, other key indexes remain below their 50-day (IWM, MDY, NYSE Composite, and the Equal Weight RSP). Yes, Friday was a step in the right direction, but I would still like to see the market continue to prove itself over the near-term. Specifically, I would like to see sideways consolidation on light volume, tighter price action in more stocks, breakouts consistently working, no distribution days over the near-term, and an additional FTD in the next week or two.
I’m open-minded for another power trend to develop, but I still want to wait patiently for more consistent health, rather than the choppy price action we’ve seen over the past few weeks. I am currently about 40% invested. As I’ve mentioned millions of times in these videos (and again in this video), everyone has different investment objectives, risk tolerances, and timeframes. I continue to encourage members to “do what works for you.” I know some members who are currently on margin, and others who maintain large cash positions. There is no right or wrong, and I’m happy with my current exposure because I can always increase it quickly if conditions improve. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your long weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
1/17/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) sees 4500 June $489.78 puts sell to open for $12.75
1/17/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opening sales of 2600 Feb 7th $606 calls at $3.80 to $3.71
1/17/24 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) large buyers of 20,000 Feb 14th $73 calls at $0.59 to $0.72
1/17/24 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) also a buyer of 1000 March $52 ITM calls at $9.76
1/17/24 Energy ETF (XLE) buyer of 2100 July $75 puts at $0.70
1/17/24 Walmart (WMT) 3000 April $85 puts sell to open for 1.49
1/17/24 Ross Stores (ROST) buyer 1500 May $140 puts for $3.65
1/17/24 AppLovin (APP) seeing 500 Jan. 24th (W) $350 calls bought $6 to $8
1/17/24 GEO Group (GEO) seeing buyers 1200 Feb 36 calls 2.85
1/17/24 GEO Group (GEO) buyers of 4300 March $36 calls at $4.05 to $4.20, adjusting the $27 calls
1/17/24 GEO Group (GEO) also 650 deep ITM Feb 40 puts sold to open 6.50 to 6.30
1/17/24 Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 2000 Feb 7th (W) $215 puts sell to open 1.60
1/17/24 Cava Group (CAVA) 500 Feb $100 puts sell to open 1.15 to 1.12
1/17/24 Uber (UBER) opening sales of 900 Jan 2027 $110 calls at $6.05 bids
1/17/24 EQT (EQT) large Feb bull risk reversal closing and March $55 calls open 28,000X against sales of 14,700 $48 puts
1/17/24 EQT (EQT) opening sales of 11K Feb 14th $48 puts at $0.31
1/17/24 Baker Hughes (BKR) buyers of 3800 March $43 ITM calls for $5
1/17/24 Coinbase (COIN) sees 1500 Feb $450 calls bought at $3.65 as the $410 calls from the other day adjust
1/17/24 Morgan Stanley (MS) with 2800 June $155 calls sell to open $3.02
1/17/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) 885 Feb 14th (W) $670 puts sell to open $4.77
1/17/24 Amgen (AMGN) sees 550 March $275 calls sell to open $8.10
1/17/24 Howmet Aerospace (HWM) 1100 Feb $120 puts sell to open $3.60, huge move after the unusual call buys recently
1/17/24 GE Vernova (GEV) buyer of 1000 Feb $420 calls at $16
1/17/24 Teck Resources (TECK) with 4500 Feb 14th (W) $44 calls bought
1/17/24 Reddit (RDDT) buyer of 500 Jan 24th $165 calls at $12.65 as $160 calls adjust
1/17/24 MongoDB (MDB) opening sale of 2600 Feb 14th $215 puts at $1.39
1/17/24 Nvidia (NVDA) large opening sale 1950 Sept $134 puts for $17.10
1/17/24 2x Nvidia ETF (NVDX) sees 1500 Sept $14 calls sell to open at $4.30 to $4.20
1/17/24 Crowdstrike (CRWD) sees 2000 March $290 puts sell to open at $4.95 to $4.80
1/17/24 Coherent (COHR) buyer 500 April $120 calls $4 offer sweep
1/17/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 20,000 May $200 calls $26.41 as the Feb. 180 adjust
1/17/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) block of 2550 Feb 28th $190 puts sell to open $1.97
1/17/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) with the 1000 Jan. 31st (W) $124 calls bought
1/17/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) also seeing buyers 3000 of the $125 calls
1/17/24 Broadcom (AVGO) buyers of over 17K next weeks $245 calls at $0.93 to $1.39
1/17/24 Microsoft (MSFT) large block of 2500 April $420 puts sell to open for $12.06
1/17/24 Applied Materials (AMAT) seeing 1000 Feb $195 ITM puts sell to open at $10.85 bids
1/17/24 Constellation Energy (CEG) 2000 Feb $270 puts sold to open 2.90 to 2.85
1/16/24 China Internet ETF (KWEB) buyers of 10,000 Sept $32 calls at $2.31 to $2.34 offers
1/16/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 3000 Jan 31st $149/$156 call spreads bought at $1.13 as strikes adjust
1/16/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) also with 2200 March $155/$140 bull risk reversals open for $0.80 credit
1/16/24 Ultra Nasdaq 100 ETF (TQQQ) buyers of 9000 March $74 puts at $4.65
1/16/24 Walmart (WMT) 2500 Sept 77.5 puts sell to open 1.90
1/16/24 McDonalds (MCD) size opening sale 400 Jan 2027 $300 puts for 36.90
1/16/24 Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 2450 Feb 14th (W) $205 puts sold to open
1/16/24 Uber (UBER) with 1200 Jan 2027 $65 puts sold to open at $10.20 bids
1/16/24 Uber (UBER) massive buy 3300 June 2026 $70 calls for $15
1/16/24 Maplebear (CART) seeing 725 April $44 calls bought $390K
1/16/24 EQT (EQT) buyer of 3000 June $65 calls at $1.60 and 5K of the $60/$70 call spreads bought
1/16/24 Expand Energy (EXE) massive buyer of 4050 June $120/$140 call spreads at $2.70
1/16/24 Cheniere Energy (LNG) 1250 September $360 way OTM calls bought 2.55
1/16/24 Visa (V) buyer 3000 Feb $325/$340 call spreads as Jan calls adjust
1/16/24 Goldman Sachs (GS) buyers of 1100 August $750 calls at $9 to $9.45
1/16/24 Citigroup (C) buyer 2000 July $80 calls $5.04
1/16/24 Citigroup (C) buyers of 4000 June $100 calls at $0.44 offers
1/16/24 SoFi Technologies (SOFI) 10,000 March $22 calls being bought 0.52 to 0.55
1/16/24 GEO Group (GEO) sees 4800 March $22 calls bought at $12.90 to $13 as the Jan calls adjust
1/16/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) sees 1000 March $770 calls bought $39.55 offer
1/16/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) massive buyer of 360 June 2026 $770 calls at $136.70, nearly $5M
1/16/24 Insmed (INSM) sees 1000 Feb $80 calls bought at $1.70 to $2
1/16/24 GE Vernova (GEV) with 134 Jan 2026 $540 calls bought at $36.70
1/16/24 Oklo (OKLO) large opening sale 800 Jan 2026 $20 puts at $6.30
1/16/24 Kratos Defense (KTOS) 1000 May $32.50 puts sold to open $2.70 and buys the May $30 and $35 calls 1000x each
1/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) opening seller of 1300 March 2026 $100 puts at $8.85
1/16/24 Texas Instruments (TXN) buyer 600 July $190 calls $15
1/16/24 Dell (DELL) with 1500 April $110 calls bought $10.40 to $10.76
1/16/24 Broadcom (AVGO) buyers of 1700 April $270 calls at $7.90 to $8.15 offers
1/16/24 Camtek (CAMT) buyer of 575 March $100/$120 call spreads for $6.60, adjusts Jan spreads
1/16/24 Nebius Group (NBIS) sees 1600 Feb $35 puts sell to open at $2.90 to $2.95 bids, popular stock with put sellers
1/16/24 ServiceNow (NOW) buyer 500 Feb $1140 calls 21.30 to 21.70
1/16/24 Meta (META) large late day buyers of 1700 April $700 calls for $16 to $16.40
1/16/24 Constellation Energy (CEG) buyers of 3500 Jan 31st $310 calls at $10.20 to $11.30
1/16/24 Constellation Energy (CEG) buyer 1000 March 310/340 call spreads adjusting the 250/280 spreads
1/16/24 Vistra (VST) buyer 1000 Feb $180 calls $10.50 adjusting some April and March calls
1/16/24 American Tower (AMT) 4000 Jan 2026 $210 calls being sold to open 10.90 to 10.70
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) sees 2400 Dec 31st $605/$575 bull put spreads sell to open at $9.35
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large buyers of 14,000 each April $590, $560 and $540 puts bought
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large opening seller of 27,000 Dec $680 calls at $7.05, implied a ceiling 2025 up near 687 or about +16% return from here