Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:17 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 10:45 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, ARM, NTAP, LLY, MSFT, ISRG
4) 15:05 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), SNPS, CDNS, CRWD, PANW, CYBR, NOW, APPF, GWRE
5) 19:45 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, AVGO, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, CRUS
6) 21:20 Stock Review – Medical Products: XBI (ETF), STAA, NTRA, TMDX, HALO, PRCT, TWST
7) 25:10 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: NVO, DELL, MU, WING, CAVA, TXRH, TSLA, FTAI, LDOS, VRTX, AMGN, VRT, SMCI, CAMT, CLS, FN, DY, COHR, PSTG, PLTR, COIN
8) 33:50 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
I start this video by reviewing the price action over the past few months. In early May, we started a new power trend when the Nasdaq Composite regained its 50-day moving average and held above it. That’s when I kept saying don’t overcomplicate things, stick with the trend, stick with strong stocks, and use the 21-day as your guide. In the videos leading up to July, I discussed how we could see some seasonal strength during the first 2-3 weeks of July.

In my efforts to help members prepare and possibly anticipate near-term moves in the market, I discussed how I started taking profits into the strength last week. I even emailed everyone a Market Note on Tuesday, July 9th to outline my thoughts and reasoning: 1) We are heading into the second half of July and August, two seasonally weaker periods. 2) We haven’t visited the 50-day moving average in a while. It’s not an exact science, but we usually visit it approximately every three months. 3) Many stocks were extended, as I haven’t presented too many stocks near buyable ranges in recent videos. 4) Many sentiment measures are near the higher-end of their bullish ranges.

As I discussed last week, I am expecting a normal pullback over the next 3-6 weeks. A few points I would like to stress: 1) I am not bearish, just defensive. For me, defensive means using smaller position sizes and raising cash. 2) I think this will be a normal pullback, and I’m by no means calling for a crash. 3) If we do see a pullback, I’m not expecting it to go straight down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us zig-zag down with 2-3 days up, 2-3 days down, etc. In other words, a choppy environment and nothing sustained over the near-term. 4) I will always be open-minded. If things stabilize, I can always adapt and change my mind. 5) If we do see a pullback, I will be looking to put cash to work in some of the relative strength names or newer names that show up on my screens. 6) I will also be paying attention to those levels where I’ve seen large put writes (August 480 for the QQQ and November 535 for the SPY). Again, these levels are never guaranteed, but I will keep these areas in mind over the next few weeks.

From here, please know your timeframe and stick to your OWN plan. If you don’t have a plan, work on fine-tuning one and defining yourself. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity:
7/19/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 3500 Dec $211 puts sold to open $7.66 as August short puts adjust
7/19/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeing 1500 June 2026 $200 puts sold to open $13.20
7/19/24 Energy ETF (XLE) a massive block of 23,000 December $87 puts bought at $2.17
7/19/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyer of 6000 August $559 calls at $5.21 as the $564 calls adjust
7/19/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also buyers into the dip for 5300 August $568 calls at $2.02 to $2.60
7/19/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 5000 August $528 puts sell to open $2.21 to $2.32 as the $525 short puts adjust
7/19/24 Oil Services ETF (OIH) massive opening sale of 10,000 Oct $300 puts at $5.50 down to $5.40
7/19/24 Gold ETF (GLD) seeing odd buyers of 3400 Jan 2026 $350 max strike calls at $2.20 to $2.27, adjusting the Jan 2025 $250 calls
7/19/24 Tesla (TSLA) 5500 Aug 30th (W) $300 calls sell to open $4.60
7/19/24 Nike (NKE) buyer 600 March $70 calls $9.50 to $9.60
7/19/24 Netflix (NFLX) 1000 August 23rd (W) $595 puts sell to open $5.25 to $5.20
7/19/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 2300 Sept $82.50 puts sell to open $3.80 to $3.70
7/19/24 Occidental (OXY) large opening sales of 5220 Nov $62.50 puts for $2.66 to $2.60
7/19/24 Occidental (OXY) also seeing large opening sales of 11,000 Jan $62.50 puts at $3.35 to $3.30
7/19/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) buyers of 1100 next weeks $1900 calls at $18 to $24.50
7/19/24 Coinbase (COIN) buyers for 1000 Oct $400 calls at $7.60 to $7.70 offers
7/19/24 Robinhood (HOOD) buyer of 1400 Nov $20/$35 call spreads at $4.50
7/19/24 Robinhood (HOOD) with 2100 Jan $23 calls buying at $5 as the Feb $20 calls adjust
7/19/24 Robinhood (HOOD) also a buyer of 3000 Aug 2nd $24.50 calls at $1.03 as $25 calls adjust
7/19/24 Mastercard (MA) with 500 Nov $450 puts sell to open at $21.18 as July $435 short puts adjust
7/19/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) sees buyers of 3400 August $500 calls at $2 to $2.50
7/19/24 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) 100 August $280 calls bought $25.90 and 100 of the $350 calls bought $8.90
7/19/24 Cardinal Health (CAH) buyer of 3000 Aug 30th $100 calls $1.54
7/19/24 Supernus Pharma (SUPN) unusual buyers of 1000 Sept $33 calls at $1.35 up to $1.95
7/19/24 Johnson Controls (JCI) 1000 January $65 puts sell to open $2.97
7/19/24 Vertiv (VRT) sees 1000 June $95 ITM puts sell to open at $23.21
7/19/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) block of 4100 August 23rd $125 puts sells to open for $1.26 bids
7/19/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) also seeing 400 Feb $140/135 bull put spreads sold to open at $1.80 credit
7/19/24 Nvidia (NVDA) spread sold 3000 Nov $105 puts $6.77 and bought 1500 Nov $160 calls $4.13
7/19/24 DataDog (DDOG) 200 Jan 2026 $135/$105 bull risk reversals open $7.20
7/19/24 Teradyne (TER) with opening sellers of 1350 Nov $170 calls at $6.70 to $6.40
7/19/24 ASML (ASML) dip buyers for 1100 August $1060 calls at $2.50
7/19/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) large opening sale of 3500 Sept $240 puts $6.70
7/19/24 NRG Energy (NRG) sees 4000 Sept $60 puts sell to open $0.77 as the July $75 short puts adjust
7/18/24 S&P 500 Index (SPX) size trade bought 2970 Oct $5580 calls for $193
7/18/24 Gold ETF (GLD) buyer 1000 August $228 calls $4.35 offer
7/18/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening sales of 4400 Aug 23rd $500 calls at $5.20 bids
7/18/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 7300 Dec $218 puts sold to open 8.67 adjusting 185 strike
7/18/24 Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) buyer 1000 Dec $44 calls for 5
7/18/24 Ultra Natural Gas ETF (BOIL) dip buying of 4500 Jan $10 calls bought ITM for $1.8M
7/18/24 Hershey (HSY) with 1500 August $190 puts buying $3.30 to $3.40
7/18/24 Pepsi (PEP) with 1500 Sept $170 puts selling to open 3.52
7/18/24 Walmart (WMT) 1200 Oct $70 calls sell to open $3.50
7/18/24 Nike (NKE) 1000 ITM Sept 77.50 puts selling to open 5.65 to 5.55
7/18/24 Uber (UBER) 8800 August 23rd (W) $57 puts sell to open 0.61
7/18/24 DoorDash (DASH) 1000 Nov $125 calls sold to open 4.45 to 4.30
7/18/24 Trade Desk (TTD) 920 Dec $95 puts buying $10.40 to $10.50
7/18/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 1725 August 30th (W) $83 puts selling to open
7/18/24 Netflix (NFLX) Jan 2026 $550 puts sold 300X $54.40 and 300 of the $1030 calls sold for $31.50
7/18/24 Netflix (NFLX) buyer 200 Nov $670 calls $49.60
7/18/24 APA (APA) with 1300 January 2026 $37.50 calls sell to open $3.97
7/18/24 Cheniere Energy (LNG) buyer of 1000 June 2025 $200 calls for $12.28
7/18/24 ConocoPhillips (COP) sees a buyer of 2000 Nov $125 calls at $3.99
7/18/24 Exxon (XOM) large buyer of 1000 Dec 2026 $120 puts at $15 offers
7/18/24 Exxon (XOM) also 1000 of the Dec 2026 $115 puts buy at $12.70 to $13.35
7/18/24 Visa (V) 300 September 2025 $290 calls sell to open $21.15
7/18/24 Citigroup (C) buyers of 2500 Aug 30th $66 calls at $1.77, adjusting March $67.50 calls
7/18/24 Amgen (AMGN) buyer of 550 October $325 puts $10.50
7/18/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) buyer 1000 August $130 calls for $6.74, reports 8-7
7/18/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) opening sales of 1100 Aug $120 puts at $2.48 down to $1.75
7/18/24 Gilead (GILD) buyer of 2200 Jan 2026 $75 calls at $8.73, adjusting $65 calls
7/18/24 Regeneron (REGN) seeing 700 September $1000 puts buy for $1.2M
7/18/24 Workday (WDAY) opening seller of 2175 Aug 30th $205 puts at $2.25
7/18/24 Micron (MU) buyer 4000 Oct $125 calls against the $135 which may be adjusting
7/18/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 32,220 next week $127 calls $1.33
7/18/24 Nvidia (NVDA also a buyer of 3067 Oct $144 calls at $5.83 as the $120 calls adjust up
7/18/24 Apple (AAPL) quick surge in next week $227.50 calls bought 10,000X at $3.60
7/18/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 1350 each of Dec 2026 $695 and $700 calls buy for net $4.7M
7/18/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 3300 Sept 77.5/90 call spreads at 1.70
7/18/24 Synopsys (SNPS) large opening sale of 1100 September $490 puts $8.10 to $8
7/18/24 Cadence (CDNS) 1830 August $250 puts sell to open $2.42
7/18/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 5000 January $130/$210 call spreads for $37
7/18/24 Amazon (AMZN) midday buyers of 4700 August 9th $185/$210 call spreads for $6.60
7/18/24 Google (GOOGL) sees opening sellers of 1100 March $180 puts at $15.35 bids
7/18/24 Intuit (INTU) spread sold 600 Dec $530 puts $8.50 and bought 300 of the $740 calls $17.25
7/18/24 Dell (DELL) opening seller 1000 March $90 puts $4.90
7/18/24 DataDog (DDOG) 800 Oct $110 puts sell to open $5.55 to $5.50
7/18/24 Constellation Energy (CEG) sees a buyer of 550 Jan $200 calls at $17.30 to $17.50
7/18/24 Vistra (VST) large opening sale of 4000 Dec $82.50 calls at $8.30 as the $100 short calls adjust
7/18/24 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 1000 October $345 calls $7.20 to $7.40
7/18/24 Tesla (TSLA) also seeing some opening sales of 1300 August 9th $260/$310 strangles for $21, leans strongly bullish delta and sees range of 240-330 roughly into next month