Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:17 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:35 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, ARM, NTAP, LLY, MSFT, ISRG
4) 8:20 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), PANW, CYBR, NOW, APPF, GWRE
5) 9:20 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, AVGO, CRUS
6) 10:10 Stock Review – Medical Products: XBI (ETF), TMDX, HALO, PRCT, TWST, AORT
7) 11:20 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: NVO, DELL, SMCI, MU, WING, TSLA, FTAI, LDOS, VRTX, AMGN, VRT, CAMT, CLS, COHR, PLTR, FN, COIN, ASTS
8) 17:25 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In the past two videos, I reviewed the price action since early May. In this video, I start by discussing the Market Note to Members I sent on Tuesday, July 9th. In that note, I mentioned to start expecting a normal pullback to the 50-day moving average, and I outlined my reasons for it. Over the past two weeks, the pullback happened and from here I would like to remain patient. 1) I would like to see signs of the selling stabilize. 2) I will be open-minded, but I will definitely NOT get overly bearish, especially because so many people call for the end of the world on any drop. 3) I will continue to screen for strong relative strength stocks.
Bottom line: I plan to remain patient and defensive. For me, defensive means having a larger than normal cash position (I am currently 50% invested) and using lighter than normal position sizes until conditions improve. Again, I’m not bearish, just patient until I see better price action from the market and growth stocks. One big positive is how small and midcaps are holding up very well. In this video, I discuss the strategy of using index ETFs. This can be helpful for those who have a large cash position and would like to have some exposure until more stocks set up again. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
7/24/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) large opening seller of 12,500 Sept 30th (Q) $200 puts for $1.66 to $1.72
7/24/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) spread bought 5000 Dec 2025 $285 calls and sold 5000 June 2026 $140 puts
7/24/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) 1000 September $140 ITM calls buy $7.55 offer
7/24/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) also buyers of 2000 August $140 calls at $5.95 to $6.25
7/24/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) some buyers into the dip for 1000 Jan $510 calls at $12.55 to $13.58
7/24/24 Rivian (RIVN) buyers of 5000 June $22.50/$25 call spreads for $0.36
7/24/24 Lyft (LYFT) 1250 June 2025 $8 puts sell to open 0.80
7/24/24 BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) buyer 1580 Jan $85 puts $4.40 to $4.50 offer sweep
7/24/24 Valero (VLO) 400 Jan 2026 $135 puts sell to open for 14.45
7/24/24 Coinbase (COIN) with 1200 Nov $200 ITM calls bought for $9.5M
7/24/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) buyers of 200 Nov $1700 ITM calls at $421 to $426, over $8M
7/24/24 KKR (KKR) large opening sale 1000 Jan $120 puts for $9.41
7/24/24 KKR (KKR) also 500 Jan $115 puts sell to open 7.50
7/24/24 FTAI Aviation (FTAI) buyer of 2000 Aug $115 calls at $4.45 as the $110 calls adjust
7/24/24 3M (MMM) buyer 2000 August $105 calls $3.54
7/24/24 Caterpillar (CAT) buyer of 300 Nov $330 calls at $30.30, reports 8/6
7/24/24 Nvidia (NVDA) with dip buyers of 1800 August 9th $113 ITM calls at $8.40
7/24/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also 1750 Aug 30th (W) $108 ITM calls bought for $2.8M
7/24/24 Broadcom (AVGO) large opening sale of 10,000 Sept $135 puts at $2.35
7/24/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) large opening sale of 300 July 2025 $155 puts at $32.60 to $32
7/24/24 Applied Materials (AMAT) buyer 750 Nov $250 calls $7.95
7/24/24 Google (GOOGL) seeing 20,000 March $180 puts sell to open $16.10
7/24/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 420 Aug 30th (W) $145 calls $15.20 offer
7/24/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) opening sale 1330 Dec 2026 $120 puts $20.40
7/24/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) massive adjustment buys 75,400 Nov $175 calls at $10.85 as the Aug $165 calls roll out and up
7/24/24 Micron (MU) buyer of 10,000 August $125 calls at $1.33, adjusts $135 calls
7/24/24 Celestica (CLS) 2000 October 67.5 calls sold to open 2.10
7/24/24 Coherent (COHR) with 4000 Oct $90 calls sell to open $2.01 to $2.05
7/24/24 Fortinet (FTNT) opening sales of 1250 Aug $57 calls at $3.40 to $3.30
7/24/24 Super Micro (SMCI) opening seller of 1000 October $700 puts at $74.90, near $7.5M
7/24/24 Oracle (ORCL) notable opening sale 600 January 2026 $150 ITM puts for $21
7/23/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large buyers for over 40,000 August 2nd $500 calls at $1.12 to $1.15 offers
7/23/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyers of 10,000 August 576 calls $1.12 to $1.14, some bigger near term call buyers similar to QQQ
7/23/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) buyer of 3000 August $103 calls at $1.68 offer sweeps
7/23/24 Tesla (TSLA) 500 January 2026 $540 calls sold to open for 19.10
7/23/24 Tesla (TSLA) trade into earnings of 1000 Nov $350/$205 bull risk reversals for a credit of $2.21
7/23/24 Tesla (TSLA) 1000 Aug 30th (W) $245 puts sell to open $16.75
7/23/24 Rivian (RIVN) 7000 Jan 11 puts sold to open 0.68
7/23/24 American Express (AXP) buyer 500 Nov $230 puts $5.75
7/23/24 KKR (KKR) opening sale 500 March $115 puts $8.60
7/23/24 Corcept Therapeutics (CORT) with 1000 Aug $32 calls buy at $4.10 to $4.50
7/23/24 FTAI Aviation (FTAI) buyer 1000 August 120/130 call spreads into earnings
7/23/24 Broadcom (AVGO) buyer 2000 Oct $172 calls $5.90 offer
7/23/24 Meta (META) with 400 Sept $515 calls bought $24.65
7/23/24 Dell (DELL) 800 March 85 puts sell to open for $3
7/23/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) bull flow with buyers 1250 Sept $165 calls $21.10 to $22.15
7/23/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer 750 max strike Oct $270 calls $3.80 offer
7/23/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 450 Jan 2026 $90 calls $10.20
7/23/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) buyer 400 August 30th (W) $195 calls $10.50
7/22/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) early buyers of 2700 Aug 30th $552 calls at $13, over $3M
7/22/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also large buyers of 5000 Oct $552 calls at $18.35 to $18.40, over $9M
7/22/24 Gold ETF (GLD) opening sellers of 1550 September $231 calls at $2.35
7/22/24 Ark Genomics ETF (ARKG) sees 4000 August $27/$23 bull risk reversals open at $0.45 debit
7/22/24 Russell Value ETF (IWN) with 400 Aug $168 calls buy at $3.14 and 300 of the $167 calls buying at $3.60
7/22/24 Starbucks (SBUX) buyer 1000 June 2025 $75/$100 call spreads
7/22/24 Target (TGT) with 1225 Aug 23rd $160 calls sell to open $2.66, earnings 8/21
7/22/24 Disney (DIS) 300 Dec 2026 $85 puts sell to open 8.30
7/22/24 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) seeing 1250 January $180 calls sell to open $8.90 to $8.45
7/22/24 Occidental (OXY) buyer of 2500 August $61 calls at $2.25
7/22/24 Chevron (CVX) buyer 600 March $180 calls $3.45 offer to open
7/22/24 Blackstone (BX) 1500 September $155 calls buy 1.45 to 1.55
7/22/24 MasterCard (MA) with 1000 November $410 puts selling to open $7.40 to $6.85
7/22/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) large buyer of 4765 Sept $140 calls at $4.25
7/22/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) also an opening sale of 1400 Aug 30th $115 puts at $0.93
7/22/24 Procept BioRobotics (PRCT) early unusual buys 1000 August $60 puts $3.10 to $3.70
7/22/24 Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) more bullish put selling with Sept $120 and $115 high Delta put sales
7/22/24 Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) also 400 Oct $120 puts sold to open 10.40
7/22/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) 750 October 780 puts sold to open for over 1.2M premium
7/22/24 Amgen (AMGN) notable opening sale 350 January $330 puts for $23.40
7/22/24 Palantir (PLTR) 1200 February $25 puts sell to open $3
7/22/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 1000 Dec $170 calls $18.09
7/22/24 Corning (GLW) seeing 10k Aug $45 calls buy at $1.20 as the $47 calls adjust
7/22/24 NetApp (NTAP) seeing 300 Jan 2026 $160/$105 bull risk reversals open at $3.50 debit
7/22/24 ASML (ASML) opening sale of 115 March $780 puts at $38
7/22/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) seeing 800 August 30th (W) $220 calls bought up to $3.10 from $2.88
7/22/24 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 1000 Jan 2026 $185/$205 call spreads
7/22/24 Meta (META) nice size bull trade buys 250 Dec. 2025 $540 calls $78.50 and sells 500 of the $400 puts $36.55
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is an intriguing small cap with a major strength since the May announcement that it signed a 6-year definitive commercial agreement with AT&T (T) for SpaceMobile Service. ASTS since 7/17 has seen 10,000 January 2026 $20 calls buy near the $4 level for $4M and still has notable long calls at August and November $15 strikes. ASTS in recent weeks has ridden its 21-MA higher back to multi-year highs and resistance near $13.50 from 2021. ASTS is building the first and only global Cellular Broadband network in space designed to be accessible directly by everyday smartphones for commercial use, and other applications for government use. The SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide cost-effective, high-speed Cellular Broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The SpaceMobile Service currently is planned to be provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO using low band and middle band spectrum controlled by MNOs. Approximately 5.6 billion mobile subscribers are constantly moving in and out of coverage, approximately 3.4 billion people have no cellular broadband coverage and approximately 400.0 million people have no connectivity or mobile cellular coverage. ASTS has a market cap of $1.9B and currently has minimal revenues as an early-stage company positioning for the future. FY27 forecasts by analysts see $2.4B in revenues ramping from $141M in FY25 and $810M in FY26. ASTS also recently announced a partnership with Verizon (VZ). ASTS is emerging as the leader in the space-to-cellular broadband market. Google and Vodafone have also signed investments with ASTS. $67B is the 8-yr expected demand for satellite direct-to-device communications. Analysts have an average target of $16 and short interest at 18% of the float remains elevated. Deutsche Bank raised its target to $22 in May. Scotia says the company could lead the biggest revolution in network architecture in decades.