Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 10:05 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, WING, CRWD, ISRG
4) 17:25 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), PANW, ZS, CDNS, CRM, WDAY, GWRE
5) 19:35 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL, ARM
6) 20:50 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), ACAD, MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, PTGX, SLNO, RXST, PRCT, TMDX
7) 23:15 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMCI, NFLX, DECK, VRTX, VRT, CLS, CAMT, PSTG, NTAP, CELH, CAVA
8) 26:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I’ve discussed in many recent videos and in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
Coming into this week, I mentioned that the second half of February tends to see some seasonal weakness. Also, the week after regular cycle options expiration does as well. The week started off lower, but then rebounded to close at new highs after Nvidia’s earnings. One point I discuss in this video is that when seasonal weakness is supposed to happen, but the market proves to be incredibly resilient, that is the market giving us information. It did the same thing in mid-January of this year. It dropped quickly, I thought there would be follow through weakness, but it proved to be strong and resumed higher. There’s no perfect way to deal with this besides accepting normal volatility if you have a longer-term timeframe. For me, I’m just doing my best to take some profits into strength, but stay invested in the names I like longer-term. For example, I am currently 75% invested. If this upcoming week consolidates or pulls back into the end of the week, I will look to put more money to work in some of the relative strength names. If the market continues higher, I am plenty invested and will hopefully continue to participate. Again, just stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there, manage your portfolio as best as you can, and accept the many variables along the way. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
2/23/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing over 67,000 March 1st weekly $514 calls buy at $1.75 as Feb weekly $502 calls adjust
2/23/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) seeing 2500 Dec $415 puts sell to open $16.92, confident in shallow corrections this year
2/23/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) large buyer of 22,000 May $85/$80 put spreads at $0.90
2/23/24 Tesla (TSLA) large opening sale of 42,000 March 1st weekly $200 calls at $2.19 as the Feb weekly adjust
2/23/24 Lyft (LYFT) buyer 3300 June $19 calls $1.26 offer to open
2/23/24 Booking Holdings (BKNG) buyer 100 May $3600 calls for $190
2/23/24 Marriott (MAR) large buyer of 11,500 June $230 calls at $29.04 as the March $200 calls adjust higher
2/23/24 Starbucks (SBUX) 10,000 May $90 puts sell to open 1.63
2/23/24 JP Morgan (JPM) buyers 17,765 April $190 calls $3.30 to $3.25 as the March $180 adjust
2/23/24 Morgan Stanley (MS) with 1400 June 2025 $62.50 puts sell to open $2.35
2/23/24 Visa (V) with 1400 Sept $300 calls sell to open at $11.65 as March short calls adjust higher
2/23/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) 5,670 April 5th (W) $64 puts sell to open 1.06
2/23/24 Vera Therapeutics (VERA) with 450 April $50 calls bought $4.70 as March adjust
2/23/24 Amylyx Pharma (AMLX) large buyer of 2700 June $8 deep ITM calls at $11.90
2/23/24 Nvidia (NVDA) with 250 April $820 calls bought $55.60 against 3350 of the $920 calls sold $23.50
2/23/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 31,500 May $720 calls are bought $112.90 as March $680 adjust
2/23/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 1500 March 28th $830/$880 call spreads near $14.70
2/23/24 Nvidia (NVDA) large buyer of 1300 Jan 2026 $700 ITM calls at $266.50, over $34M
2/23/24 Meta (META) June 2026 $410 calls open 5000X at $168.85 as the Jan 2026 $390 adjust
2/23/24 On Semi (ON) 5425 April 5th (W) $66 puts sold to open 0.67
2/23/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) seeing 900 Sept $62.50 puts sell to open at $5.90
2/23/24 Snowflake (SNOW) buyers active 2500 March 1st (W) $250 calls $5.30 with earnings 2-28
2/23/24 Synopsys (SNPS) with 250 January $530 puts sell to open at $43 bids
2/23/24 Dell (DELL) buyer of 1600 April $95 calls at $3.20 to $3.40, reports next week 2/29
2/23/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) with buyers 2500 July $180 calls $20.50 to $21.10
2/23/24 Apple (AAPL) trade sells to open 3000 June 2026 $165 puts at $13.22, adjusting June 2025 short puts
2/23/24 GoDaddy (GDDY) with 1500 March $116 calls buy $2.65
2/23/24 Vertiv (VRT) opening sellers 1950 Sept $45 puts 2.45 to 2.40
2/23/24 Zscaler (ZS) 475 December $260 calls buy at $36.30 into the strong rally, reports 2/29
2/23/24 Adobe (ADBE) seeing 1400 March $550/$545 bull put spreads sell to open, captures earnings 3/14
2/22/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyers of 13,575 June $212 calls for $6.5M
2/22/24 Industrials ETF (XLI) 5000 Sep $125/$115 bull risk reversals open for $0.20 credit with June adjustments
2/22/24 Uranium ETF (URA) buyer of 1800 June $30/$35 call spreads at $1.08 and also sells the $25 puts at $0.95
2/22/24 McDonalds (MCD) 1000 April 290/285 bull put spreads opening for 1.52 credit
2/22/24 TJX (TJX) with 700 January $110/$100 bull risk reversals opening for 2.42 credit
2/22/24 eBay (EBAY) with 1500 January 2026 $30 calls bought $15.95 deep ITM
2/22/24 Starbucks (SBUX) buyer 5000 May $100 calls $2.21 to $2.26
2/22/24 Starbucks (SBUX) also with size buyers June $100 calls 6570X $3.27
2/22/24 Uber (UBER) buyer 1000 December $80/$90 call spreads for $4.02
2/22/24 Uber (UBER) buyer of 1250 Dec 2025 $67.50 calls at $24.80
2/22/24 Home Depot (HD) 5000 April $340 puts sold to open $2.29
2/22/24 Cheniere Energy (LNG) large opening sale of 3000 April $150 puts at $2.10 post earnings
2/22/24 Chesapeake Energy (CHK) opening sale of 500 Jan $90 calls at $6.80
2/22/24 Halliburton (HAL) with 3960 May $31 puts sell to open $0.62 bids
2/22/24 Baker Hughes (BKR) opening sales of 3700 June $28 puts at $1.20
2/22/24 Chevron (CVX) large buyers of 4400 July $160 calls at $7.16 as June 155 calls adjust higher
2/22/24 Amylyx Pharma (AMLX) spread sold 1000 May $13 puts to buy the $20/$35 call spreads
2/22/24 Amgen (AMGN) 10,000 April $265 puts sell to open 2.57
2/22/24 Merck (MRK) large buys of 2100 Sept $110 deep ITM calls at $22.50
2/22/24 Pfizer (PFE) 3200 June 2025 $20 puts sell to open 0.70
2/22/24 Boeing (BA) 500 January 2026 $290 calls sell to open for 21.95
2/22/24 ServiceNow (NOW) seeing buyers of 2500 March 1st $840 calls at $1.90 up to $2.55
2/22/24 Oracle (ORCL) block of 1258 May $100 puts sell to open $2.22
2/22/24 Applied Materials (AMAT) buyers of 900 Oct $210 calls at $21 to $21.35
2/22/24 Applied Materials (AMAT) with 2485 April $220 calls bought $4.04
2/22/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer of 525 Sept $77.50 calls at $7.20
2/22/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) with buyers of 1400 April $85 calls at $1.45 offer
2/22/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 1500 Jan $90 calls $6.70
2/22/24 Amazon (AMZN) large opening sale of 3600 June 2026 $165 puts at $21.41 as the $150 short puts adjust higher
2/22/24 Microsoft (MSFT) early buyers of 7000 July $460 calls bought up to $9.15 offers, up over 22,000X now
2/22/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 6000 May $140/$165 call spreads for near $4
2/22/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer of 2500 May $150 calls at $2.71 offer
2/22/24 Super Micro (SMCI) seeing 425 April $950 calls bought for $4M
2/22/24 Super Micro (SMCI) with 1000 March $850 calls buy at $94.40 to $106
2/22/24 Super Micro (SMCI) with 200 Jan $690 puts sell to open at $122.70, has seen that 670-690 zone targeted for short puts
2/22/24 Adobe (ADBE) 200 August $540 calls bought $56, and 100 Jan 2026 $550 calls bought $126.20
2/22/24 Lam Research (LRCX) buyers of 275 April $950 calls at $49
2/22/24 Celestica (CLS) opening sale of 2000 Oct $55 calls at $2.63 as the March $40 short calls adjust
2/22/24 Micron (MU) opening sales of 1600 Aug $85 puts at $7.45
2/22/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) large buyer of 10,000 June $150 ITM calls at $41.50
2/22/24 MongoDB (MDB) with 590 August $270 puts sold to open 8.30 bid
2/22/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) seeing 700 Jan $160 ITM puts sell to open at $57.30
2/22/24 Apple (AAPL) 2500 September 2025 $210 calls sell to open $13.80
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 2000 September $1400 calls $7.70 to $8.65
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1200 April 730/690 bull put spreads opening
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 August $930 calls bought $48.65
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 August $940 calls bought $44 to $45
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 August $950 calls bought near $44.30
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 August $960 calls bought $41.55
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also buyers in April $780 calls 2000X, May $775 calls 2000X, and April $770 calls 3000X
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also a buyer of 1200 August $940 calls at $44.20 to $45.90
2/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) opening sale of 2000 Dec 2026 $650 puts at $116 to $115, over $24M in put premium sold