Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 6:20 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, WING, CRWD, ISRG
4) 12:25 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), PANW, ZS, CDNS, CRM, WDAY
5) 15:05 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL, ARM
6) 16:20 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), ACAD, MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, AXSM, RXST, PRCT, TMDX
7) 19:25 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMCI, NFLX, DECK, VRTX, VRT, CLS, CAMT, PSTG, NTAP, CELH, CAVA
8) 23:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I’ve discussed in many recent videos and in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
Coming into this week, I mentioned that the second half of February tends to see some seasonal weakness. Also, the week after regular cycle options expiration does as well. The way I am dealing with it is accepting that there will likely be a pullback in some of the names that I like over the next 6-12 months. So far this week, if you shut out the noise from all the drama around Nvidia’s earnings, this seems like a normal pullback on light volume to the 21-day moving average (for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500), and many of the leaders are holding key support. I’m approximately 80% invested but I’m not in a rush to put more money to work until we get through the remainder of the month. I also want to observe how many of the leaders act around key support and wait for some of the volatility to calm down. If the market proves to be incredibly resilient and bounces from here, then I will hopefully participate. In case we see some more backing and filling into the end of the month, I want to have cash available, especially if the Nasdaq Composite reaches its 50-day. As always, I will take this day-by-day and continue to update members in these videos. If anything important comes up in between videos, I will email members a Market Note. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
2/21/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeing 3250 August $189 puts sell to open for $6.75
2/21/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also a buyer of 2300 June $211 calls at $5.43 to $5.50
2/21/24 On Holding (ONON) September $20 puts selling to open 4300X at 0.79 to 0.75
2/21/24 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 1000 Dec $165/$155 put spreads bought
2/21/24 TJX (TJX) 7500 March 1st (W) $100 calls bought $1.66 offers and higher, reports 2-28
2/21/24 Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) opening sale 1000 Sept $40 puts for $1
2/21/24 Uber (UBER) buyers of 2500 May $75 calls at $7.65 as the April $72.50 calls adjust
2/21/24 Urban Outfitter (URBN) 1170 September $46 calls sold to open 4.50
2/21/24 DraftKings (DKNG) buyers of 2300 August $43 puts at $6.35
2/21/24 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 1300 March 1st (W) $660/$615 put spreads bought
2/21/24 Pfizer (PFE) opening seller of 13,415 March 22nd $26 puts at $0.25
2/21/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) buyer 1000 July $62.50 calls $4.75 offers
2/21/24 Bristol Myers (BMY) seeing 3400 May $55 calls bought up to $0.84 offers
2/21/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buyers of 1000 May $635 ITM calls at $91 to $94 as the March $600 calls adjust
2/21/24 Micron (MU) buyer 1500 May $82.50 calls $5.40 offer sweep
2/21/24 On Semi (ON) with 6000 April $65 puts sold to open 0.99 to 0.98
2/21/24 DataDog (DDOG) 3500 April $105 puts sold to open 1.37
2/21/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 3600 August $77.5/$95 call spreads for $2.78
2/21/24 MongoDB (MDB) 1190 April $300 puts sold to open 4.12, reports early March
2/21/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) 500 August $110 puts sold to open $23.10 to $22.90
2/21/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) also 500 August $115 puts sold to open $25.80
2/21/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyers of 1800 May $130 calls over $4M with some adjustment rolls
2/21/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) late day opening sale of 1000 Jan $125 puts at $37, nearly $4M in put premium
2/21/24 Z-Scaler (ZS) 500 June $220 puts sell to open ITM $27.95 with it reporting 2-29
2/21/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) opening sale 2000 December $95 puts for $3.45
2/20/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) large opening sale 10,000 March 8th (W) $195 puts 2.38.
2/20/24 Celsius Holdings (CELH) with 1650 March 8th (W) $70 calls bought up to $3.10, reports later this month
2/20/24 Nike (NKE) 4200 March 28th (W) $90 puts sell to open 0.87
2/20/24 On Holding (ONON) 2000 January $30 puts sell to open $4.70, reports in March
2/20/24 Tesla (TSLA) 400 October $185 puts sold to open 22.75
2/20/24 AppLovin (APP) with 1000 April 62.50 call bought 2.45 offer
2/20/24 Uber (UBER) 1000 June $67.50 puts sold to open 2.71
2/20/24 Uber (UBER) block of 5500 March 28th $67 puts sold to open $0.60
2/20/24 Spotify (SPOT) 400 May $220 puts sell to open 8.78
2/20/24 Disney (DIS) with 900 May $115 puts sell to open $7.55
2/20/24 MGM Resorts (MGM) with 2500 more March $40 calls buying $2.85 to $3.20 offers
2/20/24 Occidental (OXY) 1000 March 28th (W) $61 short puts opening
2/20/24 Chesapeake Energy (CHK) opening sales of 4750 April $70 puts at $0.90
2/20/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) large opening sale of 15,500 April $62.50 puts at $0.90
2/20/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) also buyers of 5500 March $66/$70 call spreads at $0.73
2/20/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) buyer 2000 March $123/$135 call spreads for $3.13, also closing sales in April $125 calls
2/20/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) another 1500 March $123 calls bought as weekly $120 adjust
2/20/24 TransMedics (TMDX) sees a spread sell 300 April $65 puts and buy 300 March $90/$125 call spreads
2/20/24 United Parcel (UPS) buyers 1000 March $148 calls near $4
2/20/24 Freeport McMoran (FCX) buyer 13,000 June 40/42 call spreads for $0.75
2/20/24 Freeport McMoran (FCX) also 3000 Sept $35 puts sold to open 2.35
2/20/24 Camtek (CAMT) sees 1500 August $60 puts sell and buys the $85/$95 call spreads
2/20/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 3400 March 28th (W) $415 calls sell to open for 5.20
2/20/24 Snowflake (SNOW) with 400 Jan 2026 $320 calls sell to open $33.79 as the $300 short calls adjust higher
2/20/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) seeing a buyer of 400 August $130 calls at $26.50 to $27.25
2/20/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) 2150 May $55 puts sell to open 2.30
2/20/24 Veeva Systems (VEEV) into earnings next week seeing 800 April $200 puts sell to open $5.00 bids
2/20/24 Super Micro (SMCI) buyers of 2000 March 8th (W) $1000 calls $13 to $16 range
2/20/24 Super Micro (SMCI) 600 March $1000 calls bought $16 to $17
2/20/24 Super Micro (SMCI) also 2500 March $1200 OTM calls bought $7.50 to $8.50
2/20/24 Palantir (PLTR) buyers of 6000 March 8th $22.50 calls at $1.54 to $1.88
2/20/24 Micron (MU) opening seller of 1000 Aug $70 puts at $3.50, willing buyer closer to 200 day MA
2/20/24 Salesforce (CRM) with 875 September $210 puts selling to open for $4.50
2/20/24 Texas Instruments (TXN) with 10,000 April $150 puts sold to open 1.82