Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 6:55 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ADBE, NOW, LLY, NVO, UBER, DELL
4) 13:40 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), SNPS, CDNS, PANW, CRWD, QLYS, ZS, MDB, CRM, VERX, ESTC
5) 16:10 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, KLAC, LRCX, AMD
6) 18:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, NFLX, WING, CMG, LULU, URI, BKNG, CAMT, AFRM, IOT, DKNG, CRSP, TDG, PLTR, SMCI
7) 26:25 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In recent videos, I summarized my market thoughts in three steps: 1) We had incredible strength during the first half of November, as the technicals improved considerably. 2) Statistically and probability wise, we are due for a 1-3 week consolidation, either through price or through time. 3) Coming out of this consolidation, I am expecting further strength into mid-January. Right now, we are in step 2. We have been consolidating for about two weeks and I’m thinking two things could happen from here: 1) Maybe we’ve consolidated enough and the market just continues higher from here. 2) Maybe we need to consolidate more (down to the 21-day) over the next week or two. Either way, as I’ve mentioned, I think the pullbacks will be shallow and I expect a continued rally once this digestion is done.
How am I handling things? I remain approximately 80% invested, and I will look to put money to work in some names on the watch list if they approach their 21-days. How should you handle it? As always, it depends on your timeframe and investment objectives. If you are fully invested, hopefully you are participating in this rally by being involved in some strong stocks and ETFs (and I’m assuming you are not looking to put more money to work). If you are lightly invested, now may be the time to look for safer entries (assuming you are looking to put money to work). As always, stick to strong stocks/ETFs, get strong entry points, and do you best to manage your trades based on those moving average guidelines. Thank you and good luck this week. One quick announcement, the next MidWeek Video will be posted a day earlier this week. It will be posted on Tuesday, December 5th by 8PM EST.
Unusual Option Activity:
12/1/23 Treasury ETF (TLT) large opening seller for 5250 Jan 5th $96 ITM puts for $4.75 to $4.05 bids, more bullish bets for bonds into year end
12/1/23 Uber (UBER) 750 Jan 2025 $62.5 calls bought $8.30, also 500 of the $80 calls bought
12/1/23 Lyft (LYFT) seeing 5000 Dec $13.50 calls buy at $0.56
12/1/23 Valero Energy (VLO) buyer 1000 January $130/$140 call spreads
12/1/23 Chevron (CVX) with 1000 June $150 calls $8.50 to $8.60
12/1/23 Schlumberger (SLB) opening sale 650 January 2026 $46 puts for 5.15
12/1/23 Visa (V) large opening seller of 2300 March $270 calls at $5.25
12/1/23 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) opening seller 1000 March $80 calls $4.30 to $4.20
12/1/23 Shockwave Medical (SWAV) seeing 750 April $200/$250 call spreads bought $9.50 to open
12/1/23 Boeing (BA) massive buyer of 2300 June $260 calls at $11.60 to $12
12/1/23 Elastic (ESTC) buyer 1000 February $115 OTM calls $3.10
12/1/23 Dell (DELL) buyer 2000 Dec. $71 calls $1.55 into earnings dip
12/1/23 Dell (DELL) also 4800 Jan. 12th (W) $64 puts sold to open 0.65 to 0.60
12/1/23 Microsoft (MSFT) January $365 puts being sold to open 5000X at $6
12/1/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 2000 Dec 29th $140 ITM Calls at $8.74
12/1/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 800 Jan 2026 $480 calls at $127.25
12/1/23 Nvidia (NVDA) also buys 800 of the $485 calls at $125.15
12/1/23 Intel (INTC) large opening seller of 3000 Jan 2026 $47 puts at $8.70, adjusting the Jan 2025 short puts
12/1/23 Salesforce (CRM) seeing buyers of 1100 June $290 calls at $12.90
11/30/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) with 8500 February $47 calls sold to open 3.05
11/30/23 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) with 10,000 March $50/$55 call spreads bought at $0.82
11/30/23 Campbell Soup (CPB) large opening sale 2000 June $40 puts for $2.80
11/30/23 Lululemon (LULU) with 525 Sept $640 calls being bought $7.50 to $8, far OTM
11/30/23 Pepsi (PEP) opening seller of 1500 June $185 calls at $2.50
11/30/23 Dutch Brothers (BROS) with 2000 Jan $27.50/$25 put spreads buy for $0.75
11/30/23 Exxon (XOM) block of 1250 September $90 puts sold to open for $3.90
11/30/23 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) with 180 January 2025 $200 puts selling to open for $900K premium
11/30/23 Merck (MRK) massive opening sale of 15,000 Feb $95 puts at $1.38
11/30/23 J&J (JNJ) strong mover today seeing 2000 April $165/$175 call spreads buy for $2.04
11/30/23 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) buyers 580 Dec. 22nd (W) $340 puts $4.30 to $4.50
11/30/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 1300 June $525 calls $40.80 to $41.05
11/30/23 ASML (ASML) with 300 January 2025 $640 puts selling to open $55.60 to $55
11/30/23 Microsoft (MSFT) opening seller of 1000 April $370 puts at $15.90
11/30/23 Apple (AAPL) today with opening sales of 3000 December 2024 $185 puts $13;25 to $13.15
11/30/23 Treasury ETF (TLT) massive bull trade selling to open 3000 January 2026 $85 puts for $5.40 and buys 3k of the $100/$130 call spreads for $5.85, long term bull thinking rates have peaked