Q3 statistics in a year with a strong January: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1680198967181672449
August Statistics: https://twitter.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1682613673318129665
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 10:30 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, ADBE, ISRG, CELH, LLY, NOW, TSLA, UBER
4) 14:20 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CRM, CDNS, SNPS
5) 15:05 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, MRVL
6) 17:10 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: EXTR, ABOS, ONON, DECK, BKNG, XLE (ETF), XOP (ETF), BKR, SLB, HAL, JPM, ITB (ETF), Z, CLS
7) 20:50 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Over the past few weeks, the major indexes have seen a normal pullback to the 50-day moving average. As I mentioned in many recent videos, don’t overcomplicate things. So far, it looks like a normal pullback on lighter and lighter volume, and I still expect the uptrend to resume in the fourth quarter. In the meantime, be patient! August tends to be a choppy month and I’m still not expecting any sustained upside over the near-term. We might see a bounce during this upcoming week of regular cycle options expiration, but the statistics show the remainder of the month tends to trend down. I suggest keeping new positions light until the market stabilizes and we get through this seasonally weak period.
Please keep in mind that it’s not only important to protect your capital, but also your mental capital. In other words, I don’t want members to get frustrated by over-trading in a likely choppy environment. For now, I remain 50% invested and will continue to observe the market’s price action. I am especially paying attention to relative strength during this pullback in order to focus on the strongest names into the fourth quarter. Again, try not to overthink the macro picture and just wait patiently for better opportunities. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend!
Unusual Option Activity:
8/11/23 Energy ETF (XLE) with 4000 January $92/$86 bull risk reversals opening for $0.99
8/11/23 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 2000 September $148 calls bought up to $6.10
8/11/23 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) massive buy of 46,000 Dec $50 calls for 8.75 as the Sept 45 calls adjust
8/11/23 Shopify (SHOP) with 400 June 2025 $65 calls bought for $13.40 to $13.75
8/11/23 Hess (HES) with 700 November $170 calls bought $6.30
8/11/23 Chevron (CVX) buyer 1000 Sep. 29th (W) $170 calls $2
8/11/23 MasterCard (MA) seeing opening sellers 1400 Sept $380 puts $4.20 to $3.80
8/11/23 Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) unusual 500 January $20 deep ITM calls open near $24
8/11/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) opening sale 1650 Sept 2024 $80 puts for 6.35
8/11/23 Unity Software (U) more put selling with 900 February $35 puts sold for $4.90
8/11/23 On Semi (ON) opening sale 1625 Oct. 80 puts for 1.39
8/11/23 Marvell Tech (MRVL) opening seller 5000 Sep. 29th (W) $45 puts 0.59
8/11/23 Micron (MU) seeing 3950 Sept 29th $55 puts sell to open for $0.68, captures earnings on 9/28
8/11/23 Google (GOOG) late buyer for 4700 January $142 calls at $5.98, adjusting the Oct $135 calls up and out
8/10/23 Energy ETF (XLE) with 15000 September $91 calls bought as August 88 adjust
8/10/23 ON Holding (ONON) 2000 August 40/45 call spreads bought, reports 8-15
8/10/23 ON Holding (ONON) also with 610 July 2024 $27.50 puts sold to open $2.85 bids
8/10/23 Nike (NKE) with 1000 Aug $111 ITM puts sold to open at $2.21
8/10/23 DraftKings (DKNG) opening sale 1000 February 17.50 puts 0.67
8/10/23 DraftKings (DKNG) another 10,000 Oct 22.5 puts sell to open 0.52
8/10/23 Shopify (SHOP) another 5000 October $30 ITM calls buying $27.50 offer
8/10/23 Valero (VLO) seeing a large buy of 5200 Sept $140 calls at $3.15, adjusting higher the $130 calls
8/10/23 Blackstone (BX) buyer 4700 September 8th (W) $105 calls $1.79 adjusting Sep 110 calls
8/10/23 Shockwave Medical (SWAV) buyer 200 January $210 calls $31.27 adjusting the $240 calls
8/10/23 Bristol Myers (BMY) opening seller 2500 October $60 puts $1.36
8/10/23 Immunogen (IMGN) buyer 1000 September $14 calls $1.15
8/10/23 Enovix (ENVX) buyer 5000 October $17.50 calls for $1.70
8/10/23 Microsoft (MSFT) with over 10k of the Aug 25th $327.50 puts sold to open $7.15
8/10/23 Meta (META) with 2725 June 2025 $420 calls bought near $40.40
8/10/23 Microchip (MCHP) opening seller 10,000 October $72.50 puts $1.20 to $1.17
8/10/23 Unity Software (U) opening sale 1500 November $37 puts $4.46
8/10/23 Micron (MU) opening sale 800 March $62.5 puts $5.35
8/9/23 Shopify (SHOP) with buyers of over 3000 October $30 deep ITM calls bought at $25.60 to $26
8/9/23 Chevron (CVX) large opening sale for 10,000 Oct $145 puts at $1.63
8/9/23 Marathon Petro (MPC) seeing 1400 October $145 calls bought $7.40 to $8.05
8/9/23 Marathon Petro (MPC) also seeing 1000 September $145 calls bought $5.90 offer today
8/9/23 Conoco (COP) large spread sells 8,160 Oct $105 puts to buy 8150 of the $125/$135 call spreads at $0.05 credit
8/9/23 DraftKings (DKNG) 10,000 Oct. $22.50 puts sell to open 0.55
8/9/23 Zillow (Z) seeing 1750 Sep. 8th (W) $60 puts sell to open ITM $4.35 to $4.25
8/9/23 DexCom (DXCM) opening seller 300 March $110 puts for $10.80
8/9/23 Revance Therapeutics (RVNC) with 1500 January 22.50 ITM puts sold to open 4.70 to 4.30
8/9/23 Alibaba (BABA) buyer 5000 October $105/$130 call spreads for $3.43
8/9/23 Google (GOOG) massive trade closing out Aug $130 and $135 calls and sells 8580 Oct $115 puts to buy $135/$145 call spreads
8/9/23 ON Semi (ON) opening sale 700 July 2024 $80 puts for $6.40
8/9/23 Meta (META) opening sale 1000 Sept 2024 $220 puts 12.95
8/9/23 Meta (META) also 1500 Sept 2024 $200 puts sell to open 8.80
8/9/23 Amazon (AMZN) large trade sells 8000 Sept 2024 $100 puts to open for $4.10
8/9/23 Nvidia (NVDA) 1450 Sept $535 calls bought $7.70 to $8.35, Sep. 1st (W) $485 calls bought 1000X $12 to $12.80
8/9/23 Nvidia (NVDA) also 1000 September 2024 $260 puts sold to open $13.80
8/9/23 META, NVDA, AMZN each with large Sept 2024 opening put sales today
8/9/23 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) with 2000 September $352 calls bought $6.10 to $6.45
8/9/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 5000 Sept 1st $187 puts sold to open at $1.68, adjusting Sept $193 short puts
8/9/23 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) large buyer of over 23,000 Nov $165 calls bought at $4.30 to $4.60
8/9/23 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) buyer 2000 September $151 calls $6.10 to $6.20
8/9/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) with 15,000 Oct $42 puts bought at $2.33, adjusting the Sept $48 puts that bought on 7/24 and nearly doubled