Link to IBD Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xrr_eT_qfys
Link to CNBC Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rucTDqfOU1g
Seasonal statistics on late June/early July: https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1670119283391893504

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 2:00 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 13:35 Comparison to 2003
4) 17:05 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
5) 23:20 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, ASML, KLAC, AMD, MRVL, ACLS, ALGM, AEHR
6) 27:15 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), ADBE, CRM, AI, DT, FTNT, SNPS, SNOW, WDAY
7) 30:00 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), MORF, AXSM, KRYS, RCUS, RVNC, ABOS, IMGN, BBIO, VRNA
8) 33:00 Stock Review – Home Builders: ITB (ETF), LEN, DHI, PHM, KBH, TOL, BZH
9) 34:15 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: DXCM, TMDX, RXST, QTRX, SDGR, ONON, DECK, OPRA, DKNG, UBER
10) 38:10 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
I continue to say “keep things simple.” We’re in a Bull Market. This is one of those 2-3 times per year the market is healthy. How am I determining that it’s healthy? It’s mainly due to the price action of growth stocks. In my analysis, I also add market technicals, sentiment, seasonality, unusual options activity, etc., but my main criteria is stocks. As I mentioned in my Market Note to Members on 5/21/23, it’s important to remain mentally tough. The market doesn’t provide us with too many strong opportunities, so I remind members to stay focused on the strongest stocks/ETFs out there, get those strong entry points, and manage trades as best as possible based on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. Of course, we will see pullbacks and corrections along the way, but the statistics show that these corrections will likely be minor into year-end.

In this video, I present a great “New High Buy” signal from Mike Cintolo of Cabot Newsletter. It looks for the number of stocks hitting new highs on the Nasdaq reaching their highest level in at least 18 months AND it’s the first signal in at least 18 months. In other words, coming off a period where the Nasdaq is in a correction (below its 200-day moving average), we are looking for continued strength and for the market to broaden out. This signal occurred last month. Since 1980, it’s only occurred 12 other times, and the next 9 months led to an average return of 17%. As I said, of course we will see pullbacks along the way! That is why I will continue to remind you of potential times to expect weakness, such as the week after OpEx and the seasonally weak August/September time period.

I also discuss a very similar analogy to the 2002/2003 bottom in the Nasdaq Composite. So far, it has almost been identical to that market 20 years later! As they say, the market doesn’t always repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be this Monday, July 17th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity:
7/14/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) midday stock replacement sells to open 15,000 December $395/$355 bull put spreads for $14.15, shows confidence in current levels holding into year end
7/14/23 Tesla (TSLA) seeing sweep buyers for September $290 calls at $23.60
7/14/23 Tesla (TSLA) also buyers of 2000 Aug 4th $320 calls for $5.05 offers
7/14/23 Tesla (TSLA) with opening sales of 1700 Aug 4th $265 puts sold for $8.15 bids
7/14/23 Tesla (TSLA) also the $260 puts sold for $6.56. Reporting next week 7/19
7/14/23 Rivian (RIVN) opening sale of 4500 Dec $12.50 puts for $0.43
7/14/23 Crocs (CROX) buyer of next weeks July $124/$132 call spreads for $2.35, also sells the $118 puts to open for $0.85, 900x each
7/14/23 Exxon (XOM) with 2500 July $103 calls bought for $1.05 offers
7/14/23 Mastercard (MA) with 1000 July 28th $392.50 puts sold to open for $3.40
7/14/23 Mastercard (MA) also sells the $390 puts for $2.85, captures earnings 7/27
7/14/23 BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) with 1000 September 10 calls bought ITM up to $9
7/14/23 BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) into close a buyer of 1675 July next week $22.50 calls for $1.20
7/14/23 InMode(INMD) buyer 1375 January $47.50 calls for $4.80
7/14/23 Meta (META) size buys of 3900 October $320 calls as the $295 adjust from 7/11
7/14/23 Meta (META) buyer 2000 Dec. 2025 $500 calls for $36.25
7/14/23 Meta (META) late day buyer of 23,022 June 2025 $600 calls for $15.45, adjusting the June 2025 $390 calls higher
7/14/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 1976 July 28th $470/$480 call spreads for $2.81, adjusts July 21st
7/14/23 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buyers of 1500 August 11th $500 calls for $12 to $15
7/14/23 Nvidia (NVDA) large buys of 3000 Jan $550 calls for $45.45, adjusting the $450 calls higher, over $14M
7/14/23 Nvidia (NVDA) roll of 3000 Jan calls that have been sitting in OI from mid-March and up over 900% on original buys, now adjusting higher to $550 strike for the large bullish trader
7/14/23 Applied Materials (AMAT) buyer of 200 Nov $130 ITM calls for $22.15
7/14/23 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 3000x6000x January $375/$425/$450 call butterfly’s open for $10.15, sees the name between 385-450 by January and is a broken wing fly so can make money above 450 still
7/14/23 Oracle (ORCL) 3500 July 119 calls active with buyers
7/14/23 Snowflake (SNOW) opening sales of 2500 July $182.50 puts for $4.60 down to $3.56
7/14/23 Snowflake (SNOW) seeing buyers of 1100 Sept 1st $210 calls for $6.00
7/14/23 Amazon (AMZN) massive buy 14,000 November $110 calls for $30.15
7/14/23 Opera (OPRA) down 25% on shelf offering seeing 2000 January 17.50 calls buy ITM 7.70 to $8 into weakness
7/13/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) with 8600 Sept $47 calls bought for $3.80, adjusting the $43 calls higher
7/13/23 Ark Genomics ETF (ARKG) unusual 4000 January 2025 $55 calls bought $2.25
7/13/23 Financials ETF (XLF) with 5000 March $35 puts sold to open for $1.75 ahead of big bank earnings
7/13/23 Crocs (CROX) early sweep buyers 1250 July $130 calls $3.30 offer
7/13/23 Crocs (CROX) also 1000 August 150 calls bought 2.75
7/13/23 Best Buy (BBY) opening sales of 1000 Sept $87.50 puts for $7.50 bids
7/13/23 McDonald’s (MCD) opening seller 1340 September 285 puts for $3
7/13/23 Tesla (TSLA) with 2500 June 2024 $480 calls bought today for $6M
7/13/23 MGM Resorts (MGM) with 15,800 Sept $50/$41 bull risk reversals opening as bull flow continues in it
7/13/23 Lyft (LYFT) midday sweep offers buy 1300 January $16 calls at $1.02
7/13/23 Trade Desk (TTD) buyers of 1450 August $95 calls $4.35 to $4.55
7/13/23 Exxon (XOM) with 2100 July $107 calls bought $0.52 offers
7/13/23 EOG Resources (EOG) buyer 500 January $139 calls $9.20 offer
7/13/23 Biogen (BIIB) buyer 100 January 2025 $285 calls for $54.50
7/13/23 BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) opening sales of 1100 November $7.50 puts at $0.80
7/13/23 Lennar (LEN) with 1150 November $135/$115 bull risk reversals opening as Nov. 125 calls adjust
7/13/23 Lennar (LEN) also seeing some size opening sales of 1300 June $145 calls at $10.60 to $10.10
7/13/23 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 6000 Oct $360 calls sell to open for $10.55, adjusting July $335 short calls from mid May
7/13/23 Salesforce (CRM) buyer 3750 Nov $250 calls $9.57, adjusts the $230 calls bought earlier this week before the big move
7/13/23 Amazon (AMZN) seeing opening sales of 1500 August $135 puts at $6.90 bids
7/13/23 Meta (META) buyer 1500 June 2025 $400/$550 call spreads for $28.70
7/13/23 Meta (META) 1500 Dec 2025 $600 calls bought 1500X $21.60, max strike and timeframe
7/13/23 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing opening sales for 1300 December $330 puts at $9.20
7/13/23 Nvidia (NVDA) massive buy of 6000 September $370 calls for $90.60
7/13/23 Nvidia (NVDA) late day buyers in September $465 calls over 2000X for $8M
7/13/23 Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) seeing buyers of Nov. $60 calls 850X
7/13/23 Skyworks (SWKS) with 250 January 2025 $155/$105 bullish risk reversals open for $5.80 credit
7/13/23 Dell (DELL) with 1500 August 4th (W) $56 calls bought $1.15 to $1.20
7/13/23 Adobe (ADBE) large opening sale 1000 January $450 puts for $16
7/13/23 Google (GOOGL) 2500 Aug 4th (W) 135/140 call spreads bought, captures earnings
7/13/23 Google (GOOGL) opening seller 1000 June 2024 $140 ITM puts for $19.65
7/13/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) massive trader buys 30,000 March $390 calls for $22.79 also appears to be buying the Dec $384 calls at $18.34 for 30k