Seasonal statistics on late June/early July: https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1670119283391893504

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:10 UPDATED FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
4) 14:00 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, ASML, MRVL, AMD, ACLS, AEHR, ALGM
5) 16:20 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), ADBE, CRM, AI, DT, FTNT
6) 17:15 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), AXSM, KRYS, PRTA, ETNB, ABOS, MDGL, VKTX, TERN, KOD, RCUS, RVNC
7) 22:55 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: WING, CMG, SHAK, SWAV, DXCM, TMDX, SDGR, RXST, QTRX, ONON, DECK, DKNG, ITB (ETF), LEN, DHI, PHM, KBH, TOL, BZH
8) 28:30 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
In this video, I review the market’s recent price action. I also remind members that when I present higher probability and/or seasonal statistics, they are not for everyone’s style of trading. In other words, KNOW THYSELF! If you are nimble, able to make decisions, able to watch the market, like to vary your investment levels, etc., then you can use them and be tactical if you want. However, if you are new to trading, can’t watch the market closely, have a longer-term timeframe, etc., then you can ignore the statistics, or use them to help explain some of the market’s movements while you are observing. In other words, all this is part of me encouraging members to keep working on your own style, and one that fits your overall investment objectives and timeframe.

Heading into July, I am expecting the strength to continue because of the new money coming into the market, and the strong seasonality during the first three weeks of the month (see link above). Of course, we will have pullbacks and normal shakeouts along the way, which is why I constantly stress getting those strong entry points. For me, I am going to keep it simple. I will likely stay 70-80% invested over the near-term (subject to change of course), I will stay focused on the strongest leaders, and I will do my best to manage my positions. As I’ve been saying recently, this is one of those 2-3 times per year the market is healthy, and I’m going to do my best to take advantage of it. Stay focused, stay mentally tough, and do your best to shut out the noise. As a reminder, the US markets close early on Monday, July 3rd at 1PM EST, and they will be closed on Tuesday, July 4th. The MidWeek Video will be posted on Wednesday at its regularly scheduled time. Thank you and enjoy your long weekend!

Unusual Option Activity:
6/30/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) July 28th (W) $380 calls with 8000X bought today $3.90 offers
6/30/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opening sale 3000 Sep. 2024 $400 puts for 13.85
6/30/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Sep. 29th (W) $445 puts also selling to open 3000X at $9.92
6/30/23 Nike (NKE) 1950 Aug. 11th (W) $104 puts sold to open $1
6/30/23 Toyota Motor (TM) buyer of 429 August $150 calls for $13.20
6/30/23 MGM Resorts (MGM) buyers adding to September $44 calls positions 2600X $2.40 to $2.50
6/30/23 Caesars Entertainment (CZR) opening sellers for 2800 January $35 puts at $1.30 bids.
6/30/23 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) seeing buyers of 800 December $120 calls at $5.20
6/30/23 Starbucks (SBUX) opening sale 2000 June 2024 $75 puts for 1.99
6/30/23 Walmart (WMT) opening sales of 900 Dec $160 puts at $7.70 to $7.25
6/30/23 Occidental (OXY) opening sale of 900 June 2024 $57.50 calls at $9.45
6/30/23 AstraZeneca (AZN) buyer of over 2000 July $72 calls at $1.87
6/30/23 Schrodinger (SDGR) aggressive buy of 600 January $55 calls $7.80
6/30/23 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) seeing 340 Jan 2025 $440 calls sell to open at $12.50 down to $11.50
6/30/23 United Rentals (URI) seeing 1500 Sept $460/$400 bull risk reversals open for $11+ debits
6/30/23 Freeport McMoran (FCX) trade opens 10,000 August $40/$35 bull risk reversals as $37 calls adjust
6/30/23 Shopify (SHOP) seeing opening sales of 1000 Aug $60 puts at $2.88
6/30/23 Snowflake (SNOW) seeing 2500 July $170/$167.50 bull put spreads sell to open at $0.71
6/30/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1100 next week’s July 7th $111 puts sell to open $0.77
6/30/23 Oracle (ORCL) with 2500 July $124 calls bought 1.25 offer
6/30/23 Adobe (ADBE) seeing 2000 July 7 (W) $500 calls bought
6/30/23 Google (GOOG) large sweep buyers for 3500 July 28th $120 calls at $5.45 offers, captures earnings 7/25
6/30/23 Duolingo (DUOL) strong up 5% and seeing buyers for 1200 July $145 calls at $5.90 to $6.20
6/30/23 Shopify (SHOP) seeing opening sales of 1000 Aug $60 puts at $2.88
6/30/23 Nvidia (NVDA) next weeks July 7th $415 puts sell to open for $7 down to $5.60, also the $417.50 calls bought up to $10
6/30/23 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing 1600 January $305 puts sell to open for $10.70 down to $10.50
6/30/23 Apple (AAPL) ramping into the close as 10,000 March $190 puts sell to open at $10.40
6/29/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyers of 3000 July 28th $428 calls at $13 to $13.30
6/29/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large opening seller 10,000 Sep. $444 calls for nearly $10M
6/29/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also 10K Aug. 11th (W) $434 calls opening today over $10M
6/29/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 30k September $177 puts bought for $2.57, adjusting the $175 puts
6/29/23 DraftKings (DKNG) opening seller 1250 Oct. 22.50 puts 1.31
6/29/23 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) large buy 2500 June 2024 $125 calls for $9
6/29/23 ExxonMobil (XOM) with 1900 January 2025 $90 puts sold to open 6.20 to 6.15
6/29/23 Blackstone (BX) trade sold 750 June 2025 $125 calls $5.40 and 1500 June 2025 $65 puts for $5.40
6/29/23 ImmunoGen (IMGN) with 1000 October $17 puts sold to open $1.75
6/29/23 Palo Alto (PANW) buyer 111 Sep. 2025 $300 calls $46.05 offer
6/29/23 Palo Alto (PANW) also with 575 Sep. $250 puts sold to open 13.25
6/29/23 Nvidia (NVDA) large trade buys 1100 Dec 2025 $510 calls at $96.30, adjusting the Aug $310 ITM calls
6/29/23 Nvidia (NVDA) spread sells 1445 Dec $310 puts and buys the $440/$530 call spreads, net $13 debit
6/29/23 Microsoft (MSFT) large trade opening 3000 December $370/$295 bull risk reversals for $3.55 debit
6/29/23 Dell (DELL) buyers of 3500 July 14th $52 calls at $1.42, adjusting June 30th calls
6/29/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 3000 November $135 calls $8.65 to $8.70
6/29/23 Amazon (AMZN) late day buys 1500 June 2025 $150 calls $20.25
6/29/23 Netflix (NFLX) seeing over 5000 July 14th $500 calls bought for $0.65 offers, seems to be a lot of bull flow in Tech names for July 14th expiry