Seasonal statistics on late June/early July: https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1670119283391893504

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:10 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:40 UPDATED FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
4) 12:25 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, ASML, MRVL, AMD, ACLS, AEHR, ALGM
5) 14:15 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), ADBE, CRM, AI, DT, FTNT
6) 15:20 Stock Review – Home Builders: ITB (ETF), LEN, DHI, PHM, KBH, TOL, BZH
7) 16:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: XBI (ETF), KRYS, ETNB, ABOS, WING, CMG, SHAK, SWAV, DXCM, SDGR, RXST, QTRX, DECK, ONON, DKNG
8) 21:05 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
In this video, I review some concepts from the Seminar Videos and how they apply to the current market. I believe the market is healthy 2-3 times per year and this is one of those times (as I’ve been saying in recent videos). 90% of what I use to determine the market’s health is the price action of stocks. Specifically, I want to see stocks setup, breakout on volume, hold their breakouts, and see if these stocks are coming from a broad range of sectors. Of course, I want to make sure the market is in a confirmed uptrend, but I want to reiterate that sentiment, seasonality, and unusual options activity are secondary to the price action of stocks. In other words, stocks is the main factor, and if these other measures line up, then it’s a bonus.

Right now, I am going to keep things simple. The first three weeks of July tend to be seasonally strong (see statistics above) and I’m going to do my best to stick with my stocks. The main concepts include: 1) Expose yourself to the strongest stocks and/or sector ETFs out there. 2) Get those strong entry points. 3) Manage your positions as best as possible. This includes taking some profits into strength (based on your timeframe), cutting losses (a suggested stop is a Friday decisive close below the 10-week moving average), and sitting through normal price action (as I am mostly doing this week). Of course, we will see normal pullbacks and shakeouts along the way, which is why I remind you to use the 21-day EMA as your guide. If you have any questions or would like clarification on any of these points, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Saturday, July 8th at 11AM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week!

Unusual Option Activity:
7/5/23 UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ) buyers of over 4000 September $41 calls at $4.35 to $4.55
7/5/23 Biotech ETF (XBI) 12,000 December $79 puts bought $4.06 as some Sep. 85 adjust
7/5/23 Energy ETF (XLE) buyer 5000 Dec. 2025 $70 puts for $7
7/5/23 Nike (NKE) opening sale 2000 August $105 puts for $2.04
7/5/23 Costco (COST) with 1000 August $520 ITM calls opening today above $26
7/5/23 Lululemon (LULU) buyer 300 August $380 calls $11.20
7/5/23 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) buyer 2485 August $105 calls for $4.10 as July $100 adjust
7/5/23 First Solar (FSLR) opening sale 2000 Aug $180 puts for $7.40 as put sellers remain active in the name
7/5/23 Chevron (CVX) with a large opening sale for 10,000 August $145 puts at $1.67
7/5/23 Exxon (XOM) late day opening sales of 10,000 Sept $100 puts at $2.16, similar to the CVX put sales
7/5/23 Freeport McMoran (FCX) with 1715 Sept $35 puts sell to open $0.89
7/5/23 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing some buyers of 1000 Sept $420 calls at $43.80
7/5/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyers of 1200 Aug. 4th (W) $117 calls $6.50 to $6.80
7/5/23 C3.AI (AI) buyers 1200 October $60 calls $3.55 to $3.90
7/5/23 C3.AI (AI) also opening sale 1000 September $40 puts $7.85 to $7.80
7/5/23 Microsoft (MSFT) 1200 March $345 puts sell to open for $26.05 as the June 2024 $270 short puts adjust higher
7/5/23 Microsoft (MSFT) also buyers of 1400 November $365 calls at $12.10 to $12.35 offers
7/5/23 Meta (META) seeing opening sales of 1700 December $220 puts at $5.30
7/5/23 Meta (META) also late day buyer 2200 Nov $340 calls $14.80 as some Sept $300 adjust
7/5/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 7500 July 14th $131 calls at $2.26, adjusting this weeks calls to capture Prime Day
7/5/23 Google (GOOGL) opening sales 1000 Dec. 2024 $110 puts 8.65 today
7/5/23 Salesforce (CRM) seeing 1500 July 28th (W) $215 calls bought $5.50 to $5.85
7/3/23 Semiconductor 3X Bull ETF (SOXL) big buyers of 8000 November $25 calls $5.25 to $5.45
7/3/23 Tesla (TSLA) seeing buyers of 1900 June 2024 $495 calls for $14.20 to $15.30
7/3/23 Tesla (TSLA) also buyers of 1000 Aug. 4th (W) $280 calls near 19.85
7/3/23 Netflix (NFLX) with 250 December $450 short puts opening $49.15 bid
7/3/23 Enovix (ENVX) buyers of 3900 August $25 calls 0.85 to 0.90
7/3/23 Bridge Bio (BBIO) opening buys 1000 August $10 ITM calls $8.80 to $9
7/3/23 United Rentals (URI) seeing another 1500 Sept $460/$400 bullish risk reversals open for $13.10 debits
7/3/23 Apple (AAPL) large opening sale of 2000 March $200 ITM puts for $14.67, adjusting October $180 short puts
7/3/23 Apple (AAPL) also with 5000 June 2024 $190 puts sold to open for 12.55
7/3/23 Snowflake (SNOW) buyers of 2000 August $195 calls this morning $5.90 to $6.20
7/3/23 Amazon (AMZN) another 1350 June 2025 $150 calls bought $22.20 where size opened last week
7/3/23 Palo Alto (PANW) buyers 1000 Sept $270 calls $9.95 to $10.35, August calls closing at $260 strike earlier
7/3/23 Adobe (ADBE) buyer 200 January 2025 $620 calls $42.65
6/30/23 Reata Pharma (RETA) opening sales of 500 December $90 puts for $7.10
6/30/23 Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) with 2500 January $40 calls bought for $5 to $6.20