Mike Webster YouTube Video on Power Trends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STn3K6jxaHQ
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 9:50 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, WING, RVNC
4) 12:15 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AMD, AVGO, ASML, LRCX
5) 13:30 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CRM, PANW, FTNT, NOW, DT, AI, DUOL
6) 15:45 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), AXSM, MDGL, VKTX, TERN, ETNB, RCUS, KRYS, APLS, VRNA, PRTA, BMEA, INZY, ABOS
7) 19:55 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: CELH, SWAV, ISRG, LLY, DXCM, ANET, SGML, IONQ, INOD, TXRH, ITB (ETF), BZH
8) 24:20 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In this video, I try to keep the analysis simple. While the Nasdaq Composite was consolidating in April, I discussed the reasons why I was more positive than most people on the markets. We started to breakout in May and now we are in a power trend. For a more detailed definition of a power trend, you can watch the Mike Webster video posted above. From here, let’s not overthink things. As I mentioned in the MidWeek Video, use the 21-day moving average as your guide and manage your positions as best as possible.
Many people have been complaining about the weak market breadth and how small and midcaps have not been participating. I mentioned that one of two things usually happens. Either the strength in the Mega Caps lifts the entire market, or the weakness in the rest of the market brings everything down. It was nice to see the first scenario happen on Friday, as the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&P MidCap 400 (MDY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP) all outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. That’s a sign of a healthy bull market when sector rotation takes over and more parts of the market participate. From here, I am expecting normal pullbacks along the way and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one this week. Usually, the week prior to regular cycle options expiration pulls back into a Thursday low before a strong week of OpEx. This might be something for shorter-term and tactical traders to consider this week. I am approximately 75% invested and doing my best to stay focused on the larger cap names that are working and managing my trades as best as possible. Again, please keep it simple, stay mentally tough, and don’t overcomplicate things. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
6/2/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with more than 30k August $405 puts bought $4.83, adjusting the $399 puts from an ongoing hedge
6/2/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeing 6000 July $187 calls bought $2.20 into strength today
6/2/23 Lululemon (LULU) opening seller 1000 September $480 calls 2.80
6/2/23 Ferrari (RACE) opening sale 230 January 2025 $250 puts for $14.20
6/2/23 Tesla (TSLA) offer buys of 4000 August $325 far OTM calls today near $2.62
6/2/23 Celsius Holdings (CELH) with 100 Jan 2025 $200 deep ITM puts sold to open at $71.30 in a stock replacement
6/2/23 Celsius Holdings (CELH) 125 Jan 2025 150 calls bought for $36
6/2/23 Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) opening seller 700 July 260 puts for $3
6/2/23 Disney (DIS) seeing large opening sales of 1700 June 2025 $100 calls for $15.35
6/2/23 DraftKings (DKNG) with 2000 November $15 puts sold to open $0.59
6/2/23 DraftKings (DKNG) also with 1600 July $25 puts sold to open for $1.90
6/2/23 Visa (V) opening sale for 800 January 2025 $275 calls at $14.50
6/2/23 Nano-X Imaging (NNOX) with 1100 July $20 puts sold to open $3.20 bids
6/2/23 Caterpillar (CAT) buyers of 2400 July $230 calls for $5.60, adjusts some $240 calls
6/2/23 United Airlines (UAL) seeing 4400 June $44 ITM calls bought here for 4.90 offers
6/2/23 Marvell Tech (MRVL) with 2400 September $60 puts sold to open for $5.90
6/2/23 ON Semi (ON) sale to open 1460 Oct. $65 puts $2.10
6/2/23 Palo Alto (PANW) with buyers of 1300 December $240 calls at $15.50 to $15.75
6/2/23 Lam Research (LRCX) buyers of 500 Sept $640 calls for $38 to $40
6/2/23 Apple (AAPL) seeing 1300 Nov $180 puts sell to open $10.55 down to $10.25
6/2/23 Mobileye (MBLY) seeing 7000 August $30 puts sell to open at $0.70 to $0.65
6/1/23 Shopify (SHOP) opening seller 1000 June 2025 $55 puts for $13 to $12.80
6/1/23 Walmart (WMT) seeing 5000 June 9th (W) $148 calls with buyers today $0.96 offers
6/1/23 McDonalds (MCD) buyer 1100 July $290 calls $4.55 as June $285 adjust
6/1/23 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) buyers of 3800 July $100 calls for $4.55 to $4.75, continued bullish flow in casino names
6/1/23 DraftKings (DKNG) with 1000 June 30th (W) $21 calls bought $4
6/1/23 Restaurant Brands (QSR) with 1740 Sep. $67.50 calls opening $8.97 as July $65 adjust
6/1/23 Occidental (OXY) with 500 June 2024 $52.50 puts sold to open for 5.28
6/1/23 Meta (META) buyer 1000 Sep. $320/$390 call spreads
6/1/23 C3.AI (AI) with 1000 Sep. $50 calls bought $2.90
6/1/23 C3.AI (AI) also 1450 August $50 calls with buyers into weakness
6/1/23 Schrodinger (SDGR) seeing 1200 July $45 calls bought, flow been hot to the upside
6/1/23 Nvidia (NVDA) with 2000 June 30th $455 calls bought $6.60 to $6.65
6/1/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) with a large opening sale for 1500 June 2024 $110 puts at $15.30
6/1/23 Palantir (PLTR) with 4000 November $14 puts sold to open $2.35
6/1/23 Splunk (SPLK) with 600 September $110 calls bought $5.55 to $6
6/1/23 Netflix (NFLX) seeing some unusual buys 2000 June 30th (W) $500 calls $1.05
6/1/23 Broadcom (AVGO) large opening sale 475 January $750 puts $65.80 into earnings
6/1/23 Marvell Tech (MRVL) seeing 1700 Jan 70 calls bought $6.45 offer following 2100 August $52.5 short puts 1.85 earlier
6/1/23 Super Micro (SMCI) seeing 700 August $190 puts sell to open for $14.50 down to $13.70
6/1/23 CrowdStrike (CRWD) opening sale 300 March $170 ITM puts 29.50
6/1/23 Palo Alto (PANW) opening sale of 500 January 2025 $175 puts for $15.20
6/1/23 Micron (MU) with a massive buyer of 8260 August $72.50/$80 call spreads for $2.30
6/1/23 Micron (MU) also sells to open 4130 August $60 puts for $1.70
6/1/23 Retail ETF (XRT) buyers came for 8500 July $59 calls $1.36
6/1/23 Gold ETF (GLD) with 4850 August $188 calls bought 4.10 offer to open
6/1/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 8000 June 30th $355/$370 call spreads bought for $3.90, adjusting higher June 16th call spreads
6/1/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing 30k of the June $417 calls sell to open for $5.20, looking for limited upside above 420 into next two weeks
6/1/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing size buyers of 16,000 August $399 puts at $5.34 offers for over $8.5M