Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:55 NEW FOCUS LIST: SMH (ETF), NVDA, PANW, WING, RVNC
4) 10:20 Stock Review – Semiconductors: AMD, ACLS, ALGM, CRUS, LSCC, GFS, AEHR, SMCI
5) 13:55 Stock Review – Software: AYX, TENB, CDNS, ALTR, ANSS, AI
6) 16:55 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), CBAY, APLS, RCUS, VKTX
7) 19:05 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SGML, TXRH, ANET, LNTH, DXCM, PODD, TMDX, FOUR, ONON, PERI, INOD
8) 22:30 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Some questions that members have asked this week include: What is going on with the market? What’s with the brutal selloff in tech stocks? What are you doing with some of your recent positions? The answers to all these questions can be found in the same general guidelines I have discussed over the years with members. 1) Use the 21-day EMA as your reference point. Whenever an index or stock is extended from this area, a pullback to the 21-day is normal and to be expected. I mention this because so far this week, the pullback in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 has been orderly and on below average volume. 2) Lighter positions and keeping some cash can help you deal with volatility. I’ve increased my investment levels over the past two weeks from approximately 30% invested to 55%. The point is that if I was a raging bull, I would be more invested. I am still cognizant of the macro economic headwinds and using lighter positions for most of my stocks. 3) Get those strong entry points. This can help to give you a cushion during normal pullbacks. 4) A Friday decisive close below the 10-week moving average is my suggested stop.
Overall, the pullback this week has occurred on below average volume. I do realize that some growth stocks have been acting weaker, which is why I reduced exposure on a few names this week and I discuss them in the video. You can really see the underperformance when you compare ARKK to QQQ or SPY. ARKK is significantly weaker this week as higher valuation names have struggled, so I will definitely get more defensive if I see further weakness. I’m curious to see how the market reacts next week when the real volume comes in after the holiday. For now, I am going to stick to my rules above and continue to monitor the price action day-by-day. There will still be a Weekend Video posted Saturday by the regular time. Thank you and enjoy your long holiday weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
4/5/23 Silver ETF (SLV) seeing large opening sales for 17,500 May $22.50 puts at $0.79 down to $0.76
4/5/23 Silver ETF (SLV) seeing more aggressive bull flow with over 11,000 July $24 calls bought here for $1.23 offers
4/5/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) notable trade sold 5000 Dec. 29th (W) $162 puts for $8.29
4/5/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also seeing 50,000 May $164 puts bought today
4/5/23 PVH (PVH) aggressive buys of 540 Sept $100 calls for $4.90 offers
4/5/23 Hershey (HSY) with 550 January $280 calls bought for $10.60 sweep offers
4/5/23 Diamondback Energy (FANG) opening seller 1300 May $130 puts for $3.10
4/5/23 Zillow (Z) opening sale 1000 November 35 puts for $3
4/5/23 BridgeBio (BBIO) large buyer of 10,000 July $20/$25 call spreads for $0.98
BBIO note Bloomberg reported 3/30 BBIO has attracted interest from pharmaceutical companies
4/5/23 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) buyer into weakness again today for 1500 August $18 calls at $3.50
4/5/23 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) another 1000 January 10 calls bought today
4/5/23 Cassava (SAVA) size bear flow as 1250 January $20 puts are bought $5.70 offers
4/5/23 Sigma Lithium (SGML) seeing 4000 July $50 calls selling to open at $1.00
4/5/23 Twilio (TWLO) seeing 3800 April $55 puts sold to open $0.82
4/5/23 TWLO with 9000 May $45 puts sold to open down to 1.02
4/5/23 Nvidia (NVDA) with 1400 April 28th (W) $262.5 calls bought ITM $13.30 to $14.35 into weakness
4/5/23 Palo Alto (PANW) seeing 600 Jan 2025 $106.67 puts sell to open at $4.44, adjusting the $100 short puts
4/5/23 Snowflake (SNOW) with 1300 May $150 calls opening as April adjust
4/5/23 Zscaler (ZS) massive buys coming into July $125 calls 11,000X $4.35 up to $5
4/5/23 Google (GOOGL) buyers of 1475 Oct $100 puts $6.90 to $7 and also Sept $93 puts trading 2300X bought $4.15
4/4/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) size buys of 20,000 April $403 puts today near $4.05
4/4/23 China ETF (FXI) opening seller 8000 January 27 puts for 1.83
4/4/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 10,000 August $160 puts for $3.93, adjusting June puts
4/4/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also with 50,000 May $168 puts bought for $2.71, adjusting the $170 puts lower
4/4/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also with 50,000 May 166 puts sold to open 2.71
4/4/23 Tesla (TSLA) with 3000 December 2025 $140 calls opening for $31M as June 2025 $135 adjust
4/4/23 Tesla (TSLA) sweep buyers active for 10,000 April 28th (W) $160 puts today, earnings 4-19
4/4/23 Occidental Petro (OXY) opening sellers of 6000 November $65 puts at $6.90 bids
4/4/23 Marathon Petro (MPC) opening sales of 1200 May $125 puts at $5.05
4/4/23 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) sees a big buyer of January $10 ITM calls 1550X at $8.90 offers
4/4/23 Meta (META) buyer of 4200 April $212.50 puts at $5.35
4/4/23 Meta (META) also with 1000 October $200 puts bought today up to $17.75.
4/4/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 1000 May 5th (W) $277.50 calls near $15
4/4/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) seller of 3000 September $85 puts for $6.50
4/3/23 China ETF (FXI) opening seller 5000 Dec. $27 puts and buys the $35 calls, bull R/R
4/3/23 Biotech ETF (XBI) seeing over 5900 June $73 puts sell to open at $2.85 to $2.70
4/3/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) block of 10,000 May 37 puts opened 1.73 to 1.74
4/3/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening seller in May 5th (W) $318 puts 2000X near $8.05
4/3/23 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 5000 April $132 puts sold to open $3.89, adjusting $115 short puts it seems
4/3/23 Roblox (RBLX) buyer 2000 April $47 calls $1.85
4/3/23 Chevron (CVX) block of 2200 January $170 calls sold to open for 16.60
4/3/23 Apellis Pharma (APLS) seeing 1000 each of April and May $70 puts sell to open
4/3/23 IVERIC Bio (ISEE) seeing 2000 June $30 calls bought for $1.60
4/3/23 Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) some more unusual bull flow with 1000 May 20 calls bought 0.90 to 1.30
4/3/23 ON Semi (ON) 1150 Sep 55 puts sold to open for 1.78
4/3/23 Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) 380 Sep 105 puts selling to open 6.50
4/3/23 Sigma Lithium (SGML) with 5000 May $40/$50 call spreads bought as April spreads adjust, Tesla takeout rumors
4/3/23 C3.ai (AI) 2500 July 35 calls selling and taking profits today
4/3/23 C3.ai (AI) seeing 3000 May $25 puts bought at $1.24 after 2500 July $35 calls sold earlier
4/3/23 C3.ai (AI) also weekly $30 puts bought 5000X
4/3/23 Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) with buyers of over 2000 May $12 calls at $1.20
4/3/23 Ultragenyx (RARE) spread sells 300 August $35 puts $3 and buys 300 of the $50 calls for $3.60
4/3/23 Microsoft (MSFT) buyers of 1900 August $305 calls up to $13.40
4/3/23 Google (GOOGL) large opening sales of 3800 June 2024 $120 calls for $9.90 down to $9.50
4/3/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 6000 April 28th (W) $115 calls up to $1.01, captures earnings
4/3/23 Perion Network (PERI) seeing unusual buys of 5000 April $45 calls at $0.25 up to $0.50