Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 11:40 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), OIH (ETF), XOP (ETF), APA, DVN, EOG, OXY, MPC, HP, MP
4) 13:40 Stock Review – Semiconductors: TSM, NVDA, ACLS, AOSL, GFS, ON, AVGO
5) 15:50 Stock Review – Big Pharma/Medical Products: LLY, VRTX, MRK, BMY, REGN, SWAV, INSP, IRTC
6) 17:35 Stock Review – Relative Strength Watchlist: BROS, SG, CLH, PANW, PCRX, EVH, HRMY, SRRA, ITCI, LNTH, DAC, TRTN
7) 21:30 Stocks near buyable ranges: ATI, CENX, LXU, IPI, SWCH, NKTX
8) 25:20 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
The big question in this market continues to be: Was the strength at the end March just a bear market rally? Or is this the beginning of a new uptrend? Of course, no one knows the answer to this question and another possibility is that we just stay in a range for a while. The case for a new uptrend is that the market has already priced in the Fed rate hikes. The argument for new lows is that the market is not taking the Fed seriously, and still has to deal with all the liquidity being taken out of the system. In this video, I review what the Fed did in the fall of 2018, and in late 2021. Bottom line, if the Fed wants to raise rates and reduce their balance sheet, it seems like they will continue with this hawkish stance because the market is allowing them to. Maybe they keep going until something breaks. By breaks, I mean the S&P 500 corrects 20%, a problem in the bond market, and/or if credit spreads widen too much.

Please keep in mind that just because the Fed is providing a difficult headwind for the market, it doesn’t mean that it has to go straight down. For example, when sentiment gets too negative, we will continue to see countertrend rallies to keep the bears in check. In addition, there are still many stocks acting well. In a stronger market, we would see more stocks acting consistently well, but there are still decent opportunities out there. In this video, I review the following steps if you are going to trade: 1) Don’t overthink the macro picture. Keep things simple and follow price. 2) Since we are likely to see higher volatility over the next few months, use lighter than normal positions to help prevent from getting tossed around. 3) Get strong entry points. Use the 21-day EMA as your guide and do NOT chase extended stocks. 4) Try to expose yourself to the strongest stocks. 5) Manage risk. Cut losses based on your timeframe. My suggested stop is a decisive Friday close below the 10-week moving average. 6) Use index ETFs if you want. You don’t ONLY have to trade individual stocks. 7) If you are on margin and stuck in many stocks that are down 50-70% or more, consider cutting some losses. I would like members to have some cash on hand for when better opportunities present themselves later this year. I think approximately 50% exposure is a good level right now but, as always, I will leave that up to you based on your own investment objectives. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Saturday, April 9th at 11AM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity
4/6/22 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 2,500 Sept $4200 OTM calls from $32.50 to $37, over $10M in premium, earnings late April
4/6/22 Cameco (CCJ) with 30,000 May $35/$40 call spreads being bought late
4/6/22 Cameco (CCJ) September $25 ITM call buyers active late as well and up over 5000X on the day
4/6/22 Tesla (TSLA) seeing size buyers in July $1250 calls 3000X at $60+
4/6/22 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) with 2,000 Jan $75 ITM calls bought for $15.70 to $15.80 as some positions adjust
4/6/22 Callon Petroleum (CPE) with 500 May $60 puts sold to open for $6.50 today
4/6/22 Merck (MRK) with 5,000 May $90 calls sold to open today for $0.82 to $0.80
4/6/22 ZIM Shipping (ZIM) sellers active for 2,850 July $40 puts today for $2.30
4/6/22 Freeport McMoran (FCX) buyer of 1000 April 29th (W) $50/$56 call spreads ahead of 4-21 earnings
4/6/22 Microsoft (MSFT) sweep buyers active this morning for 5000 May $285 puts $6.65 to $7
4/6/22 Apple (AAPL) buyers of over 12,000 April 29th (W) $160 puts for $1.86 to $2.02, earnings on 4-28
4/5/22 Apple (AAPL) seeing 11,000 May 6th (W) $175 calls sold to open for $5.90 to $5.80
4/5/22 Apple (AAPL) also 11,000 of the May 13th (W) $185 calls sold for $2.30 ahead of 4-28 earnings
4/5/22 Staar Surgical (STAA) 2000 June $85 calls opening $4.75
4/5/22 Callon Petroleum (CPE) with 850 May $65 calls bought for $5.80 to $5.90 to open today
4/5/22 Vertex (VRTX) with 450 October $230 puts sold to open for $8.70/$8.80 today
4/5/22 Energy ETF (XLE) buyer 8200 May $82/$87 call spreads for $1.13
4/5/22 Baker Hughes (BKR) buyer opening the September $40/$30 bull risk reversal today for a small debit
4/5/22 Bill.com (BILL) with 700 May $280 calls sold to buy the $210/$160 put spread for a net $6.20
4/5/22 Taiwan Semi (TSM) afternoon buyer 1000 September $95 calls at $13.20 offer
4/5/22 GrafTech (EAF) unusual late day buys of 10,000 May $10 calls $0.60 to $0.65
4/4/22 Lockheed Martin (LMT) buyers of 1000 May $450 calls for $13.60 to $13.80 to open today
4/4/22 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 1650 August $110 puts selling to open $13.30
4/4/22 Twitter (TWTR) interesting buys of 4500 June 2023 $80 calls $3.45 to $3.55 with shares already up 28%
4/4/22 Biotech ETF (XBI) seller of 1500 September $85 puts that buys 1500 of the $100/$120 call spreads
4/4/22 Apple (AAPL) with 17,000 May 13th (W) $185 deep ITM puts selling to open $10.60 to $10, popular trade for months
4/4/22 ZIM Shipping (ZIM) buyers of the April 22nd (W) $70/$73 call spread this morning, 1000X