Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:25 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 11:30 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), OIH (ETF), XOP (ETF), APA, DVN, EOG, OXY, FANG, MPC, MUR, HAL, HP, TDW, RES, OAS, PTEN
4) 18:25 Stock Review – Commodity Related: IPI, LXU, AMR, ARCH, ARLP, CCJ, MP
5) 21:40 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, NVDA, ACLS, AOSL, GFS, ON, AVGO
6) 25:10 Stock Review – Big Pharma/Medical Products: LLY, VRTX, MRK, BMY, REGN, SWAV, INSP, IRTC, CORT, LNTH, HRMY
7) 28:20 Stock Review – Relative Strength Watchlist: BROS, SG, CLH, PANW, PCRX, EVH, SRRA, ITCI, DAC
8) 31:25 Stocks near buyable ranges: SM, LPI, ATI, CENX, PRCT
9) 35:35 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
In this video, I review the importance of the Fed and how they can affect the markets. My conclusion is that we’re unlikely to see sustained upside as long as they’re raising rates and removing liquidity from the system. How long will this go on? No one knows, but Midterm election years tend to bottom around August/September. Of course, those are just the statistics and we will continue to take this day-by-day. As I mentioned in the last video, it doesn’t mean the market has to go straight down. It just means that any strength will allow the Fed to remain hawkish until they meet their objectives or until they see trouble in the markets.

The good news is that many stocks are working well, but they are mostly in the commodity-related sectors. For members who like to trade technology stocks, my guess is there will be better opportunities later this year. Again, here are the guidelines that I presented in the last video: 1) Don’t overthink the macro picture. Keep things simple and follow price. 2) Since we are likely to see higher volatility over the next few months, use lighter than normal positions. 3) Get strong entry points. Use the 21-day EMA as your guide and do NOT chase extended stocks. 4) Try to expose yourself to the strongest stocks. 5) Manage risk. Cut losses based on your timeframe. My suggested stop is a decisive Friday close below the 10-week moving average. 6) Use index ETFs if you want. You don’t ONLY have to trade individual stocks. 7) If you are on margin and stuck in many stocks that are down 50-70% or more, consider cutting some losses. I would like members to have some cash on hand for when better opportunities present themselves later this year. I think approximately 50% exposure is a good level right now but, as always, I will leave that up to you based on your own investment objectives. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Saturday, April 9th at 11AM EST. Thank you and enjoy your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity
4/8/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large trade buying 10,000 July $445 puts from $17.45 to $17.90 this morning
4/8/22 Gold ETF (GLD) buyer of 2,000 September 30th (Q) $181 calls for $9.05 to $9.35
4/8/22 CF opening sales of the August $100 puts for $9.50 today, over 400
4/8/22 Occidental (OXY) seeing 5250 April 22nd (W) $62 calls bought today up to $1.48 to open
4/8/22 Occidental (OXY) seeing 4000 May $65/$75 call spreads bought today as well
4/8/22 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) with 500 July $85 puts sold to open today for $5.35
4/8/22 SM Energy (SM) buyers of the May $45/$55 call spread for $1.90, over 3250X, as some April calls adjust out
4/8/22 Apple (AAPL) the July $195 calls being sold today 7,000X to buy the $160/$135 put spread 7,000X14,000
4/7/22 Bunge (BG) buyer 725 October $130 calls at $5.80 offer
4/7/22 Bristol Myers (BMY) with 2450 ITM January $80 puts sold to open $7.65 bids
4/7/22 Mosaic (MOS) afternoon buyers active for 4000 April 22nd (W) $74 calls $2.40 to $2.53
4/7/22 SM Energy (SM) with 2500 May $45/$55 call spreads opening as April 40/50 adjust
4/7/22 Nvidia (NVDA) trading 1500 January 2024 $500/$600 call spreads
4/7/22 Qualcomm (QCOM) buyer 800 January 2024 $140 calls $28.72 to $28.95
4/7/22 Nutrien (NTR) buyer of 550 June $115 OTM calls $3.60 offer
4/7/22 Nutrien (NTR) also with an opening sale of 1600 June $100 puts for $5.50
4/7/22 Intrepid Potash (IPI) with 400 May $90/$120 call spreads bought for $11.20 today
4/7/22 Occidental (OXY) opening sale of 3000 September $40 puts for $1.99 today
4/7/22 Occidental (OXY) also 1200 May 13th (W) $59 puts sold to open $6.05 to $6.10
4/7/22 Range Resources (RRC) with 1900 September $34 ITM puts sold to open $7.10 bids
4/7/22 Apple (AAPL) with 10,000 May 13th (W) $175 calls sold to open for $4.30 this afternoon
4/7/22 Patterson Energy (PTEN) with 1000 November $18 calls bought today for $2.20
4/7/22 Pfizer (PFE) with 2375 January 2024 $43 ITM calls opening near $13.90
4/7/22 Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) with 13,000 May $35 calls bought for $1.30
4/7/22 Applied Materials (AMAT) with 500 September $110 calls bought for $19.60/$19.65
4/6/22 EQT (EQT) late day buyer 7500 June $41/$50 call spreads for $1.67
4/6/22 Pfizer (PFE) with 3800 December $52.50 calls bought $4.90 as June $50 adjust
4/6/22 Nvidia (NVDA) with 1350 November $240 puts selling to open $33.85