Interview with Mike Webster: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj_Aw5TnYME
Compound and Friends Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQeievuFPY8
Jim Cramer featuring my research on Mad Money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfR3nbnIV98
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:40 FOCUS LIST: NFLX, SPOT, PLTR, GEV, EQT, RKLB, UBER
4) 16:45 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: SHLD (ETF), XAR (ETF), HWM, KTOS, DRS, GE, ASTS, JOBY, ACHR, RDW, ATRO, AIRO, BKSY
5) 22:35 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NBIS, ORCL, RBRK, CRWD, CYBR, FTNT, TWLO, CRWV, SNOW
6) 26:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ARM, MU, KLAC, TTMI, CLS, JBL, FN, AMSC, MKSI
7) 30:30 Stock Review – Energy/Data Center related: VST, CEG, VRT, NRG, BE, OKLO, SMR, NNE
8) 32:45 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: BROS, SMG, IONQ, ARQQ, SHOO, ODD, ATI, TOST, TKO, DASH, AXON, HOOD, RBLX, SHAK, CMP, IBIT
9) 38:40 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
We’re still in a power trend because the major indexes are above their key moving averages, and many growth stocks continue to act well. As I’ve mentioned in recent videos, if we continue to see strength into this seasonally strong period (June 27 – July 15), I will look to reduce some of my exposure. I already started to reduce over the past week, as I went from 100% invested down to 65%. The main reasons were to lock in gains, and also the subtle distribution we saw last week (which I discuss in this video). I can’t stress this enough: 1) What you should do depends on your timeframe, risk tolerance, and your overall plan. In other words, please don’t copy me or anyone else blindly. Make decisions based on WHAT WORKS FOR YOU. 2) I could be wrong, and this power trend could last into late July or even August. Again, please keep in mind that I’m always talking in terms of probabilities. There are no certainties in the market.
Remember the main guidelines during power trends: 1) Use the 21-day as your guide. In other words, if we are extended from this level, don’t be surprised to see minor pullbacks through price and/or through time. 2) Expose yourself to strong stocks and ETFs. Between the Focus List and the other stocks, there are plenty of ideas in these videos. 3) Get strong entry points near the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. 4) Manage your trades as best as possible based on your timeframe, risk tolerance, and overall investment plan. I can give guidelines, but ultimately, you need to decide what position sizes to use, the number of positions to own, when to take profits, and where to set your stop losses. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be this Monday, July 14th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Options Activity:
7/11/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) large opening sales for 2500 Oct 31st $72 ITM puts at $9.15 bids, over $2.2M
7/11/25 Energy ETF (XLE) sees over 10,000 Dec $84 puts sold to open at $2.90
7/11/25 Biotech ETF (XBI) into dip a buyer of 1000 Oct $86 calls at $6.35
7/11/25 Walmart (WMT) 3000 Aug 25th (W) $86 short puts open 0.85
7/11/25 Philip Morris (PM) buyer 1000 July 25th (W) $180 calls $5.20 to $5.25, reports 7-22
7/11/25 Dollar Tree (DLTR) 2000 Oct $105 puts sell to open $6
7/11/25 Dollar Tree (DLTR) 600 Feb $105 puts sold 9.46 to open
7/11/25 McDonald’s (MCD) 5000 Sept $320 calls sell to open $4
7/11/25 Nike (NKE) 600 February $70 puts sold to open $5.60
7/11/25 Uber (UBER) 1200 Sep. 2026 $80 puts sold to open for 7.25
7/11/25 Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 3000 Sept $270 short puts opening 2.70 to 2.55
7/11/25 Home Depot (HD) 5000 Nov $420 calls sell to open 4.26
7/11/25 Exxon (XOM) opening sales of 2000 Sept 2026 $120 calls at $9
7/11/25 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 1200 Sept $435 calls bought as trades adjust
7/11/25 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 2000 Sept $475 calls buy at $32.07 as Aug $450 calls adjust
7/11/25 MicroStrategy (MSTR) also 2000 August $440 calls bought at $45.50
7/11/25 CleanSpark (CLSK) 1285 March $14 calls buying for around $400K
7/11/25 Schwab (SCHW) 800 Jan 87.50 puts sold to open $4.36
7/11/25 Coinbase (COIN) Oct $600/$720 call spreads bought 1160X
7/11/25 Coinbase (COIN) also sees 1300 Aug $390 calls bought $29.54 as $370 calls adjust
7/11/25 Amgen (AMGN) 5000 Sept $325 calls sold to open 2.42
7/11/25 AbbVie (ABBV) 5000 Dec $220 calls sell to open 3.30 to 3.25
7/11/25 GE Vernova (GEV) sees 1000 Feb $700 calls sell to open $31.30
7/11/25 CSX (CSX) sees a block of 9000 August $35 calls buy at $0.95 offer
7/11/25 AeroVironment (AVAV) unusual 500 Sept $370 way OTM calls bought $3.80 offer
7/11/25 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 2000 Jan 2027 $55 calls buy at $11.23 as the $50 calls adjust up
7/11/25 Unusual Machines (UMAC) sees 2000 August $15 calls buy midday at $1.30 to $1.65
7/11/25 MP Materials (MP) sweep buys 1750 Jan $34 ITM calls $14.40 offer
7/11/25 Nvidia (NVDA) 5000 Aug 29th (W) $160 puts sold to open 7.30 bids
7/11/25 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 5500 June $210 calls at $13.65 as the $165 calls adjust higher
7/11/25 Micron (MU) 1500 Dec $120 puts sold 11.65
7/11/25 Salesforce (CRM) opening seller 350 Feb $220 puts $9.10
7/11/25 Meta (META) 1500 Aug 29th (W) $700 puts sold to open $29
7/11/25 Rubrik (RBRK) buyer 450 August $85 calls $5.90 offer
7/11/25 Applied Materials (AMAT) buyers of 630 Oct $190 ITM calls at $19.05 to $19.45
7/11/25 Nebius Group (NBIS) buyer 1000 March $60 calls at $7.65 to $8
7/11/25 Nebius Group (NBIS) also 1000 June $65 calls buying $9.80 to $9.95
7/11/25 Oracle (ORCL) 1000 Jan 2027 $270 calls bought at $34.50 in a single block
7/11/25 Centrus Energy (LEU) 1000 August $200 puts sell to open $21 to $19.20 bids
7/11/25 AES (AES) big buys come for 12,000 November $15 calls $0.50 offers with M&A report
7/11/25 Oklo (OKLO) buyers of 775 Aug 1st $54 calls at $5.15
7/11/25 NuScale Power (SMR) buyers of 3000 Aug $45 calls at $2.55, selling the $55 calls at $1.02 against
7/10/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) seeing 6000 August $68 calls bought $1.66 to $1.77
7/10/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) 4300 Jan $80 calls bought at $3.75 to $4 offers and 2500 Dec $75 calls buying at $4.35
7/10/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) buyers of 9000 July 25th (W) $65 calls
7/10/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) opening sales of 1300 August 29th $61 puts at $2.57
7/10/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 1250 March $600/$550 bull risk reversals open at $6.54 credit
7/10/25 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) buyer 2000 Dec 2026 $290 calls $48.30
7/10/25 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) large spread buys 5200 June $65/$80 call spreads for $4.76
7/10/25 Energy ETF (XLE) 2500 Dec 2026 $88 puts sell to open 8.20
7/10/25 McDonald’s (MCD) 1250 Aug 8th (W) $305 calls sold to open 4.80
7/10/25 Roblox (RBLX) sees 400 March $100 puts sell to open at $15.10 bids
7/10/25 Roblox (RBLX) also 520 Aug 92.5 puts sell to open 3.25
7/10/25 AppLovin (APP) sees 600 Oct $270 puts sell to open $16.10 to $15.90
7/10/25 AppLovin (APP) 1200 Aug 1st (W) $360 calls bought as $1.4M position with July 350 adjusting
7/10/25 AppLovin (APP) also seeing some August 410/480 call spreads
7/10/25 Uber (UBER) 550 June $95 puts sell for $11.94
7/10/25 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) sees 1200 June $140 calls buying $6.63 to $7.13
7/10/25 Philips (PSX) 870 Jan 2027 $140 calls bought with June 2026 135 adjusting
7/10/25 Halliburton (HAL) buyer 1300 Jan $22 calls at $2.55 to $2.63
7/10/25 Chevron (CVX) 350 June 2026 $155 short puts open $14.30
7/10/25 Mastercard (MA) 250 March 2026 $530 short puts open $23.30
7/10/25 American Express (AXP) 1200 July $320 puts sell to open 5.68, reports next week
7/10/25 Goldman Sachs (GS) buyers of 750 Jan $705 calls at $61.40 to $63
7/10/25 PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) buyer of 1000 Sept $50 calls $4.30 offer
7/10/25 Vertiv (VRT) 7900 August 85 short puts open 0.81
7/10/25 Vertiv (VRT) 3500 August $130 calls sell to open 6.20
7/10/25 Bloom Energy (BE) size buy in 4100 Jan 2027 $40 calls open $5.20
7/10/25 Bloom Energy (BE) 5000 August 28/33 call spreads bought
7/10/25 GE Vernova (GEV) 1400 August 22nd (W) $405 short puts open $3.55
7/10/25 CSX (CSX) sees 4350 Jan $30 ITM calls bought at $5
7/10/25 Advanced Micro (AMD) sees 3000 August 1st $148 calls bought $4.15 as July calls adjust
7/10/25 Unity Software (U) 3000 July 25th (W) 29 calls roll up to $30 strike
7/10/25 Unity Software (U) 1000 June 2026 $30 short puts open 7.15 bids here
7/10/25 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 1000 Aug 8th (W) $495 ITM calls $17
7/10/25 Microsoft (MSFT) 3000 Aug 8th (W) $530 calls bought
7/10/25 Amazon (AMZN) 12,000 Sept $220 calls buy 14.10 as July 185 adjust
7/10/25 Alibaba (BABA) buyers of 3000 Oct $115 calls at $4.75 to $4.90
7/10/25 Alibaba (BABA) opening seller 3500 March $75 puts at $1.55
7/10/25 Nebius Group (NBIS) 2100 Jan 2027 $80 calls bought $10.61 as 1530 of the $40 calls adjust up
7/10/25 Palantir (PLTR) seeing adjustments sell 3200 Sept $140 puts at $14.95 as the $125 short puts adjust higher
7/10/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) seeing 20,000 Sept $510 puts sell to open $5.55 to $5.46 and buys the Sept $600 calls at $3.43 in bull risk reversals, willing to own at 510 if see a summer correction
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has been on a hot run but this month finally retracing back to its rising 21 EMA support and seeing several large bulls expecting a further climb this year with a 6/26 buyer of 2000 November $25 deep ITM calls at $27.50 to $28.90, over $5M and still holding in OI. Also, on 7/8 a buyer for 1800 March $80 calls at $6.02 which added to existing open interest now over 3400x or nearly a $2M position. Also this week saw a buyer into the dip for 1000 October $60 calls at $4.15 and 750 January $40 puts sold to open for $8.95. ASTS has also seen 2000 January $70 calls bought late last month at $7.90 while August $60 calls still holding 5300x in OI after the buyer on 6/16 near $2.40. January 2027 has massive ITM calls still in OI from earlier in the year that bought over 11,000 Jan 2027 $45 calls and 8000 Jan 2027 $25 calls worth over $20M now. The $14.8B rapidly growing cellular broadband company trades at 52.4X FY26 sales, 17X cash with revenue growth seen rising +31% in FY25 and expected to grow +20% in FY26. AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States. The company provides a cellular broadband network in space to be accessible directly by smartphones for commercial use and other applications, as well as for government use. Its SpaceMobile service provides cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage. ASTS is projected to turn profitable in FY27 with sales estimated at over $900M by then which is a 14 fold increase from current FY25 revenues so hyper growth clearly seeing sales surge and with that a higher valuation but one that is warranted based on the current trajectory. AST SpaceMobile’s future growth prospects are closely tied to its ability to deliver on aggressive revenue projections. If the company executes on its deployment and commercialization plans, it could realize substantial growth and industry disruption. Strategic partnerships with major telecoms like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Google, are a core factor which are expected to accelerate adoption and commercialization of AST’s technology. The CEO noted on the conference call that five Block 2 BlueBird satellite launches are scheduled over the next six to nine months, with the first shipment expected in Q2 2025 and a production cadence targeting six satellites per month in the second half of the year. Shares are up +108% YTD as a top growth name and could use some more consolidation but now back at 21 EMA so potential for a rebound from the lower 40’s zone. The former being up at 54 and a lot of the longer term bull OI buying far OTM calls see new highs likely into year end. Average analyst price target is $47 with a Street high of $64. Clear Street started at Buy and a $59 target this week noting expects “reliable” commercial service by 2027 for AST, leading to a “breakout year” in 2028 with $2.3B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA. Scotiabank was out last month with a note speculating if Jeff Bezos might invest in ASTS after his social media post suggested a relationship between ASTS and Blue Origin. Short interest is high at 18.8% but has been declining from 21% in Feb. Hedge fund ownership rose 19%.