The purpose of this Market Note is to remind members of some of the “bigger picture” concepts I’ve emphasized over the past two years and will likely repeat many more times over the next two to three years. It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day market noise, especially during periods of heightened volatility, such as the recent tariff headlines. But in doing so, many investors lose perspective on the powerful underlying trends shaping this bull market. Here are the key themes I want to reinforce:
1) I believe the new bull market began in May 2023 powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some people argue it began at the October 2022 lows. Honestly, who cares? It’s all semantics. The reason I say May 2023 is that’s when the true AI market leader, Nvidia, delivered one of the greatest earnings reports in stock market history. I wrote about it back in May 2023: https://joefahmy.com/2023/05/28/the-stock-market-game-changer
Throughout history, bull markets are powered by inventions that revolutionize our lives. Some examples include railroads, television, airlines, drug discoveries, personal computers, cell phones, and the internet. What do all these things have in common? They increase productivity. AI is the next major wave, and it’s already driving productivity across many sectors. This is the foundational reason I believe we’re in a longer-term uptrend.
2) I’ve frequently compared this cycle to the internet boom of 1995-2000. If the current market is going to have a similar path (with both being led by major inventions), then this bull market could last for approximately 2-3 more years. I included a chart from Bespoke Investments.
It compares the Nasdaq Composite from the late 1990’s to the current market, and overlays Netscape (web browser) releases to ChatGPT releases. Some people might think this is a crazy comparison and total coincidence, but I find it very fascinating. So, maybe the bull market started on November 30, 2022, with the first ChatGPT release? Again, who cares? What matters the most is staying focused and capitalizing on current opportunities.
3) There is a VERY IMPORTANT point I would like to stress. Does this mean everyone should be reckless, load up on the market, and ignore risk? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!! Please keep in mind that even though 1995-2000 was a very strong market, there was insane volatility and painful pullbacks along the way. For example, late 1997 witnessed a significant correction (including a “mini crash” on 10/27/97) due to the Asian financial crisis. Also, the summer of 1998 saw an incredible scare due to the Russian debt default. Back then, a highly leveraged hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management blew up, and the market only recovered when the Federal Reserve orchestrated a bailout to prevent a potential systemic crisis. My point is that if this new bull market is going to last until 2028, we are going to see some major corrections, shakeouts, pullbacks, and growth scares along the way. One could argue that we just witnessed one with the recent tariff correction.
4) Coming out of the recent tariff correction, we saw several breadth thrusts, including a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT). These were all covered in the Weekend Video on 4/26/25. The main point of the ZBT is to indicate the insatiable demand coming from the big institutions over a 10-day period. Again, this is for members who have a timeframe of longer than 7 seconds. There have only been 19 ZBTs since World War II and all 19 have led to above-average 12-month forward returns. This is something to keep in mind into year-end, especially if we see a normal correction this summer.
5) Over the past two months, I pointed out the insane call buying in many June and December 2027 calls. Some examples include bullish flows into AMZN, GOOGL, ARM, NVDA, TSLA, AVGO, NOW, and PLTR. If these stocks are going to move higher over the next 2-3 years, that means we are likely to see the entire market move higher due to their significant weighting on the major indexes. Again, this doesn’t mean everything will just shoot straight up or that any of these will work. It’s just one more piece of data pointing to a constructive backdrop. Risk management remains paramount.
6) Markets ultimately move on earnings and interest rates. Over the next 12-24 months, expectations are for lower rates, which should enhance liquidity and create a more equity-friendly environment. You don’t have to agree with the Fed, but always remember the phrase “Don’t Fight the Fed.” In fact, get a tattoo of it so it will be a frequent reminder.
7) The incredible bull market we saw from 1995-2000 was mostly fueled by internet-related stocks, but there were other growth areas such as smart phones, fiber optics, and retail-related (apparel and restaurants). This current bull market is broader than AI. For example, I’ve discussed many Space-related names, energy-related, and yes, select retail stocks continue to show up on the current 52-week high list. The takeaway: stay open-minded and flexible. There are multiple growth stories at play.
This Market Note isn’t a green light to blindly chase stocks or ignore risk. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t have major corrections along the way. It’s simply a reminder to block out the noise, stay disciplined, and keep perspective of the bigger picture. If this bull market is going to continue for the next few years, it’s essential that we stay focused and take advantage of the opportunities. As always, I will continue to share my best interpretations in the regularly scheduled videos, keep members aligned with the market’s true direction, and highlight strong setups as they emerge. Thank you and good luck!