Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:50 Comments on the recent volatility
4) 11:30 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, DELL, WING, NVO, VRT
5) 15:00 Stock Review – Software and Semiconductors: IGV (ETF), MSFT, APP, DDOG, CRWD, SMH (ETF), MU, AVGO, ARM
6) 17:25 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), LLY, CYTK, VKTX, MGNX, CRNX, MRUS, NTRA, TMDX, RXST
7) 20:45 Stock Review – Restaurants: CMG, CAVA, SHAK, TXRH, DPZ, SG, FWRG
8) 23:35 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, GOOGL, AVAV, LDOS, HWM, VST, CEG, TDW, MPC, WFRD, CLS, DECK, SMCI, PSTG
9) 30:20 Stocks Near Buyable Ranges: NVDA, CEG, LDOS
10) 31:20 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
After the decline two weeks ago, the biggest question was: Is this the beginning of a bigger correction? Or was this just a shakeout? In recent videos, I discussed how I thought it was a shakeout for three reasons: 1) Based on the precedent described in the 2024 Preview Videos, I am only expecting declines of 3-7% this year vs. the average 14% intra-year decline for the S&P 500. 2) The market is usually strong during an election year when an incumbent is running for re-election. 3) I think the market needed to shake out some of the crowded trades, and I discuss it in detail in this video.

Although I was leaning towards the recent decline being a shakeout, I still wanted to lean defensive and let the market prove itself. I like how the market held its 4/19 low this past week, and how many stocks showed great relative strength during this pullback. I increased my exposure this past week in many of those names, and I discuss them in this video. I would still like to see a follow through day and see the major indexes get back above their 50-day moving averages. We could see that as early as this Wednesday when the Fed updates us on their interest rate policy. If their comments are dovish, that should bode well for the markets. If they hint at further postponing interest rate cuts, the market could see a kneejerk reaction to the downside, but again, I’m only expecting normal backing and filling, and not any significant downside.

One last point, I take a few minutes in this video to discuss the recent volatility. It obviously wasn’t fun, but it’s part of the markets. That’s why I stress mental toughness throughout many of my videos. I continue to remind members that we are in this for the long run. The goal is produce consistently strong results, and remaining calm and confident during the volatility always helps. Thank you and good luck this week!

Unusual Option Activity:
4/26/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) seeing 28,000 May $413 puts sell to open at $2.16
4/26/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also with 1100 March $510 calls sell to open $9.90, collecting $1.1M in premium
4/26/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) seeing 10,000 June $85 calls buy at $3.49 as the $93 calls adjust
4/26/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) also an opening seller of 1200 June 2026 $75 puts for $7.85
4/26/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyers of 5300 July $208 calls at $4.10 to $4.18
4/26/24 Tesla (TSLA) large late day buyer of 15,000 August $250/$290 call spreads for $1.52
4/26/24 Lyft (LYFT) 3900 September 9 puts sell to open 0.32
4/26/24 Carvana (CVNA) opening sale 10,000 June $60 puts as the June $50 short puts from 4/22 adjust
4/26/24 Uber (UBER) with 875 January 2026 $62.50 puts sell to open at $9.35
4/26/24 Cava Group (CAVA) 2500 May $75/$85 call spreads buy at $1.10, adjusting the $70 calls
4/26/24 National Oilwell (NOV) rises as 10,000 July $21/#22 call spreads buy, big buyback
4/26/24 BP (BP) midday buyers of 3900 May $39.50 calls at $0.84 to $1.02 offers
4/26/24 Citigroup (C) 3000 July $62.50 puts sell to open 3.30 to 3.25
4/26/24 Citigroup (C) also with 3700 July 2026 $80 calls buy at $4.50
4/26/24 Coinbase (COIN) 3000 May 3rd (W) $255 calls selling to open for 5.90
4/26/24 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) sees 6000 May $100 calls buying at $0.50 to $0.60
4/26/24 Oscar Health (OSCR) more bull flow with 1200 June $15 calls buying ITM up to $4.10
4/26/24 Bristol Myers (BMY) buyer 2000 December $47 calls for $3.10
4/26/24 United Rentals (URI) with 420 Sept $600 puts sell to open $22.40
4/26/24 Union Pacific (UNP) sale of 1000 July 245 calls 7.57
4/26/24 AeroVironment (AVAV) sees 600 August $190 calls buy now at $5.20 offers
4/26/24 Teck Resources (TECK) with 2200 July $55 calls buying at $2.15
4/26/24 Meta (META) buyer of 5000 Dec 2026 $400 calls at $149.65 as the $470 calls adjust a large trade
4/26/24 Celestica (CLS) 2400 April 2025 $55/$27.50 bull risk reversals opening as January calls adjust
4/26/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 Dec 2026 $740 calls open a $35M position as Jun 2026 800 calls adjust
4/26/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also buyers of 1350 June $1010 calls at $31.35, adjusting some $1050 calls
4/26/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 40,500 August $375 calls open, $195M position, as May 380 adjust
4/26/24 Micron (MU) buyer 1500 August $130 calls $5.55 offer
4/26/24 Micron (MU) also with 1900 August $115 puts selling to open at $11.35
4/26/24 Snowflake (SNOW) 600 December $145 puts sell to open for $16.10
4/26/24 Amazon (AMZN) seeing 2300 January $235 calls sell to open at $4.80
4/26/24 Amazon (AMZN) also with 1200 Jan 2026 $225 calls selling to open at $19.70
4/26/24 Vertiv (VRT) with over 4k May $95 calls buying at $4.45, adjusting some $87 calls
4/26/24 Vertiv (VRT) also with 650 Sept $100 ITM puts sell to open $16.40
4/26/24 Applovin (APP) with 1000 June $100 calls buy at $1.15
4/26/24 Digital Realty (DLR) buyer 2000 May $145/$150 call spreads into earnings 5-2
4/25/24 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) with over 3000 Dec $200 calls buy at $31.27 as the June $165 deep ITM calls adjust higher from original buyer on 12/29 that is up over +125%
4/25/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dip buyers bought nearly 30,000 May 10th (W) $428/$438 call spreads
4/25/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) seller to open 1100 January $414.78 puts for $22.05
4/25/24 Retail ETF (XRT) spread put on 5,000 Sept 78/65 bull risk reversals for 0.11 debit
4/25/24 Deckers (DECK) seeing 260 May $820/$770 bull risk reversals open for $1.90 debits
4/25/24 Costco (COST) with 1300 may 10th $730 calls bought $7.80 as May 3rd calls adjust
4/25/24 Uber (UBER) another large bull spread sell to open 13k July $60 puts at $1.83 and buys the $70/$82.50 call spreads at $3.83
4/25/24 Uber (UBER) also with 1700 Jan 2026 $65 calls sell to open $19.60
4/25/24 Carvana (CVNA) buyer 1200 June 70 calls $12.50 offer
4/25/24 Disney (DIS) opening sales of 3000 Oct $90 puts at $1.31 bids
4/25/24 EOG Resources (EOG) with 900 January $141 calls buying at $11.68
4/25/24 Zillow (Z) opening sale 1000 June 42.50 puts for 2.92
4/25/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with 875 May 24th $345 puts sell to open $2.35
4/25/24 Macrogenics (MGNX) size buy 5000 June $10 puts for $2
4/25/24 Crinetics Pharma (CRNX) with 3750 May $40 puts buy at $1.40 as the $45 puts adjust
4/25/24 Oscar Health (OSCR) June $18 calls bought 600X $1.75 offer, reports 5-7
4/25/24 Teck Resources (TECK) buyer of 2000 June $55 calls at 0.69 as May $50 calls adjust
4/25/24 Google (GOOGL) 3250 May 31st (W) $135 puts sell to open 1.51
4/25/24 Meta (META) 2000 Oct. $520 calls sell to open 18.05 adjusting short $600 calls
4/25/24 Meta (META) 2850 May 31st (W) $425 puts sold to open $14.35
4/25/24 Oracle (ORCL) buyers 1300 May 31st (W) $114 calls near $3.54
4/25/24 Oracle (ORCL) 2700 May 108 puts sell to open 0.72
4/25/24 Oracle (ORCL) also seeing buyers 2400 May $115 calls for $575K
4/25/24 Microsoft (MSFT) with 10,200 Sept $395 puts sold to open 23.30 to 23.40
4/25/24 ServiceNow (NOW) large trade of 3000 August $620 calls buy at $113.50 as the $May $660 calls adjust
4/25/24 DataDog (DDOG) 5000 May 24th (W) 95 puts sell to open 0.81

4/24/24 Leidos Holdings (LDOS) with 2000 August $140 calls bought up to $4.50
Leidos Holdings (LDOS) has seen 2,445 August $135 calls bought to open since 4/8 which is a $1.2M position in a name lacking much notable open interest. Leidos Holdings (LDOS) also saw notable insider buys in May 2023 with three executives buying over $900K in stock.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) saw recent opening put sales the past week with 500 October $195 puts sold at $13.10 and 500 of the Dec $195 puts also selling to open for $15.85 and collecting hefty premiums seeing a floor just below here. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) also on 4/12 saw a buyer of 1000 June $220 calls at $8.50 and sells the $200 puts at $6.45 in risk reversals that remain in open interest.