Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:20 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, DELL, WING, NVO
4) 10:35 Stock Review – Software and Semiconductors: IGV (ETF), MSFT, APP, DDOG, SMH (ETF), MU
5) 12:40 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), LLY, CYTK, MGNX, VKTX, CRNX, ALXO, MEDP, NTRA, TMDX
6) 16:30 Stock Review – Restaurants: CMG, CAVA, SHAK, TXRH, DPZ, SG
7) 17:45 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, AMZN, GOOGL, VRT, CLS, AVAV, CEG, VST, CELH, CPNG, TDW, MPC
8) 22:30 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
The big question right now is: Was last week’s decline the beginning of a bigger correction? Or was it just a quick drop to shake out of some of the recent crowded trades? I’m leaning towards the latter because it’s an election year and I don’t think we will see a significant correction this year. That doesn’t mean we will snap back to new highs anytime soon, as we are likely to chop around over the near-term. My conclusion is to remain patient and disciplined until market conditions improve.
In this video, I discuss how “being defensive” means different things to different people. For some, it means reducing exposure from 100% down to 75%. For others, it means going 100% cash. Again, the purpose of this product is to encourage you to make these decisions based on your own timeframe and overall investment objectives. For me, defensive means having some cash on the sidelines, and using lighter positions until the market proves itself better. I did take some light positions this week in stocks that are showing great relative strength (and I discuss them in this video). For now, I plan on staying 25-50% invested until we see the selling slow down, we see a follow through day, and we regain the 50-day moving average on the major indexes. Again, patience, discipline, and defense until this happens. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
4/24/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening sales for 1225 Jan 2026 $384.78 puts at $21.48, long term willing buyer about 10% lower
4/24/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) opening sale 1000 January 81 puts 6.20
4/24/24 Tesla (TSLA) with over 20,000 June $155/$125 put spreads bought to open
4/24/24 Uber (UBER) sees 3500 May 10th $73 calls sell for $1.48 bids
4/24/24 Uber (UBER) also large bull spread as 10,000 July $60 puts sell to buy the $70/$82.5 call spreads 10,000X
4/24/24 Coupang (CPNG) buyers of 3700 July $25 calls at $0.90 to $0.99
4/24/24 Home Depot (HD) opening seller of 1000 June $305 puts at $3.26
4/24/24 Cheniere Energy (LNG) opening seller of 3000 May 24th $145 puts at $1.05
4/24/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) opening seller 500 Oct $195 puts $13.55 to $13.10
4/24/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) also 500 Dec $195 puts selling to open 15.95 to 15.85
4/24/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) buyer 1000 May 24th (W) $71 calls $2.44
4/24/24 FTAI Aviation (FTAI) 1000 May $75 calls bought 2.25
4/24/24 Leidos Holdings (LDOS) with 2000 August $140 calls bought up to $4.50
4/24/24 Northrop Grumman (NOC) buyers 1725 August $525 calls up to $7.10
4/24/24 Advanced Micro AMD) opening sales of 1800 May 3rd $148 puts at $3.95, reports 4/30
4/24/24 Meta (META) 2000 Sept $600/$400 bull risk reversals open into earnings for around $6 debits
4/24/24 Texas Instruments (TXN) sees 10k June $190 calls sell to open $2.17
4/24/24 Micron (MU) buyer 2800 July $120 calls $6.14
4/24/24 Apple (AAPL) large opening sales of 4300 Jan 2026 $190 calls at $18.75
4/24/24 Impinj (PI) seeing nearly 400 May $125/$140 call spreads bought
4/24/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 1000 March 2025 $100 puts sell to open 3.30
4/24/24 Vertiv (VRT) sees 1275 May $87 calls buy at $4.05 as $82 calls adjust from yesterday
4/23/24 Corporate Bonds ETF (LQD) with 7000 Oct $105/$100 bull put spreads sell for $1.43
4/23/24 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) buyers of 5700 May $395 calls at $1.30 to $1.50
4/23/24 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) sees 5000 June $220/$235 call spreads bought for $3.55
4/23/24 Utilities ETF (XLU) buyer 6000 September $65 puts for $1.91
4/23/24 Uber (UBER) buyer of 1155 July $72.50 puts at $6
4/23/24 Coupang (CPNG) sees some of those May 17.5 calls adjust to 1900 November $25 calls bought for $2.31
4/23/24 Airbnb (ABNB) buyer 1000 May 3rd (W) $160 puts $5.30 to $5.50
4/23/24 Costco (COST) buyer of 550 Jan $425 deep ITM calls at $307
4/23/24 Instacart (CART) buyer of 2200 July $35 calls for $3.15 as the $37 calls adjust
4/23/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) with 500 Oct $195 puts sell to open $14.05
4/23/24 Baker Hughes (BKR) 1750 June 2025 $27 puts sell to open $1.58
4/23/24 Tidewater (TDW) unusual 1000 May $95 calls bought $2.55 up to $2.90
4/23/24 Valero (VLO) with 2000 June $170/$150 bull risk reversals opening $4.48
4/23/24 Citigroup (C) buyer 6800 Sept $57.5 calls $6.79 as some May $55 adjust out
4/23/24 CleanSpark (CLSK) seeing 600 Dec $21 calls buy at $8.30
4/23/24 Amgen (AMGN) large opening sale 5000 June $260 puts $6.45 to $6.30
4/23/24 AstraZeneca (AZN) seeing 1000 June $70 calls bought $3.45 offers
4/23/24 AbbVie (ABBV) opening seller of 540 March $185 calls at $8.90
4/23/24 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 2500 June 2025 $205 calls $18.24 against the $245 calls
4/23/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) seeing 1000 Nov $75 puts sell to open at $6.20 bids
4/23/24 Cadence Design (CDNS) seeing 850 Nov $300 calls buy at $21.85 as Jan $335 calls adjust
4/23/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 1000 October $405 puts sell to open 22.85
4/23/24 Meta (META) 2400 August $440 put selling to open today down to $20.20
4/23/24 Vertiv (VRT) buyer 3500 May $82 calls $5.01 as May 3rd (W) 87 adjust
4/22/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing large buyers of over 40,000 May 10th $509 calls at $2.44 to $2.48 offers
4/22/24 Tech ETF (XLK) large January $215/$170 bull risk reversal opens 5000X for $3.50 debit
4/22/24 Lululemon (LULU) seeing 2000 June $330 puts sell to open $8.22 as some May $360 short puts adjust
4/22/24 Coupang (CPNG) 6500 May 3rd (W) $23 calls bought
4/22/24 Airbnb (ABNB) buyers 1100 May 3rd (W) $155 puts $4.20 to $4.45
4/22/24 Airbnb (ABNB) 500 Oct. 180 calls sold to open $10
4/22/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 2750 Nov 70 puts sell to open 1.38
4/22/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) also with 4350 June $105/$87.5 bull risk reversals opening $0.62 debits
4/22/24 Walmart (WMT) with 3500 July $60 puts sell to open $2.13
4/22/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) 1400 October $150 puts sell to open 2.41 to 2.35
4/22/24 ConocoPhillips (COP) with 1200 July $135 calls sell to open $4.05
4/22/24 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) with 370 July $360 puts sell to open $5.95
4/22/24 Micron (MU) with 3000 August $92.50 puts sold $3.80
4/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 2000 July $800/$900 call spreads
4/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buyers of 6000 May 3rd $800 calls at $23 to $25
4/22/24 Meta (META) with 300 November $560 calls bought up to $33.55
4/22/24 Meta (META) 5000 Dec 2026 $470 calls open as $500 strike adjust
4/22/24 Google (GOOG) with 6700 June $135 puts sell to open at $1.44 to buy the $165 calls at $5.17 in bull risk reversals
4/22/24 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing buyers of 2400 July $405 calls at $19.40 to $21.15