Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:05 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, LLY, NVO, WING, DELL
4) 10:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NOW, CRWD, SNPS, CRM, APP
5) 13:10 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), ARM, ASML, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT, AVGO, MU
6) 15:55 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), CYTK, MGNX, CRNX, VKTX, MEDP, RXST, NTRA, ISRG
7) 17:45 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: UBER, CART, SMCI, AMZN, NFLX, SPOT, CEG, VST, VRT, CLS, AVAV, PSTG, NTAP, CAMT
8) 23:00 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I discussed in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.

Coming into this week, I discussed the market’s positives and negatives, and my conclusion was to wait for more clarity. I mentioned that when there’s a mixed picture, one of two things happens. Either the market stabilizes and the growth leaders resume their uptrends or the weight of the market brings down those relative strength stocks. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the latter scenario so far this week. On Tuesday, I thought we were getting close to the end of the selling because so many names on our list were green, but again, the heaviness of the market brought things down further on Wednesday.

In my efforts to educate, I discuss four key points in this video: 1) When I start (or add to) a position to possibly anticipate a turn in the market, I keep these positions light and I am quick to stop myself out (or reduce if it’s an added position) if the stock takes out the previous day’s low. 2) I’ve discussed how I’m only expecting shallow pullbacks in the S&P 500 this year (between 3-7%) based on a precedent. Just keep in mind that it’s important to be flexible and humble if that precedent breaks down. In other words, don’t be stubborn. 3) From here, I would like to see the market PROVE ITSELF before starting any new positions. We need to see the price action improve. Specifically, I would like to see this recent pattern of selling into strength stop, and I would like to see a follow through day. 4) Don’t forget to STICK TO YOUR STOPS AND MANAGE RISK! As I mention above, just because it’s a bull market, don’t assume every position in going to work out. I reduced exposure on Wednesday by stopping myself out of positions that have broke recent support. It’s not fun, but it’s part of the discipline we must stick to when positions turn against us. Please remain defensive until conditions improve. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity:
4/17/24 Silver ETF (SLV) more bull flow as 3000 March 31st (Q) $27 calls are bought $3.15 offers
4/17/24 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) 1100 May 24th (W) $215 puts sell to open $8.30
4/17/24 Oil Services ETF (OIH) buyers 4250 July $295 puts for nearly $3M
4/17/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 6500 December $415 puts sell to open 19.02
4/17/24 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) seeing 500 June $900/$700 bull risk reversals open at $18.50 debits
4/17/24 Costco (COST) seeing 600 May 31st $720 puts sell to open at $22.75 as May 3rd $730 short puts adjust
4/17/24 Uber (UBER) 500 December $65 puts sell to open $5.30
4/17/24 Marathon Oil (MRO) 550 June 2025 $32 calls sell to open $3
4/17/24 Conoco (COP) 300 November $125 puts sell to open 7.90 to 7.85
4/17/24 Conoco (COP) also 800 July $125 puts sell to open 4.20 to 4.15
4/17/24 SM Energy (SM) unusual 500 November $60 calls bought $2.40 offer
4/17/24 ALX Oncology (ALXO) unusual 1000 August $18/$30 call spreads are bought for $3.10
4/17/24 Biogen (BIIB) large buy of 1000 Jan 2026 $110 deep ITM calls at $98.50, over $10M
4/17/24 Freeport McMoran (FCX) buyer 2000 May $49 calls $3.40 offer sweeps
4/17/24 Pure Storage (PSTG) sees 600 July $55 calls bought $4.80 offer
4/17/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers 4000 May 3rd (W) $1000 calls $4.20 to $4.40
4/17/24 Lam Research (LRCX) sees opening sales of 370 May $855 puts at $15.35
4/16/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) size buyers of 13,000 May $197 calls for $5.5M
4/16/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) size opening sale 2500 Jan 2026 $420 puts $33.20
4/16/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 1250 Nov $175 calls sell to open $6.25 to 6.15
4/16/24 Gold ETF (GLD) sees 2500 August $215 puts sell to open at $4.70 down to $4.30
4/16/24 Silver ETF (SLV) seeing 7500 Oct $25 calls bought at $2.85 in large lots
4/16/24 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) 3000 June $225 calls bought for over $3M
4/16/24 Royal Caribbean (RCL) large opening seller of 1500 Jan $115 puts at 49.75
4/16/24 Coupang (CPNG) buyer 2500 August $25 calls 1.55 offer
4/16/24 Home Depot (HD) 400 November $360 calls sold to open $16
4/16/24 Citigroup (C) buyer 10,000 July $62.50 calls bought $1.37
4/16/24 Coinbase (COIN) sweep buyer 450 October $200 puts $39.65 offer
4/16/24 Novartis (NVS) nearly 2000 May $92.50 calls bought for $3.20 adjusting recent $95 strike buys
4/16/24 Caterpillar (CAT) 450 September $290 calls open as $3.65M position with May 280 adjusting
4/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1650 June $860 calls active for $15M premium
4/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) midday buyers for 1100 May 10th $870 calls at $40.85 to $41.30
4/16/24 Micron (MU) early buy 2000 May 10th (W) $120 puts $5.25 offer
4/16/24 Dell (DELL) buyer 1600 June $130 calls $6.39
4/16/24 Salesforce (CRM) large buy of 600 July $280 calls at $17.75
4/16/24 Amazon (AMZN) large buyers of 2500 January 2026 $185 calls at $39
4/15/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing 6500 July/August $535 call calendar spreads, positioning for upside later this year
4/15/24 Treasury ETF (TLT) 5000 Nov $89 calls sold to open $4.70 bids, also sellers of 5000 Dec $89 calls $5.10 bids
4/15/24 Silver ETF (SLV) buyers of 3000 June 2025 $25 calls at $4.29 as Jan 2026 calls adjust
4/15/24 Biotech ETF (IBB) 35,000 June $126 puts adjust to $120 strike taking some profits
4/15/24 Walmart (WMT) more bull flow with 2000 Dec $56.67 puts selling to open $1.93
4/15/24 Target (TGT) with 2000 May $150 calls buy at $17.67 as April adjust
4/15/24 Toast (TOST) seeing buyers of 3850 June $27 calls
4/15/24 Cheniere Energy (LNG) opening sale 2750 May 3rd (W) $147 puts 0.83
4/15/24 Citigroup (C) with over 9000 May 31st $60 calls buying at $2.20
4/15/24 Citigroup (C) buyers active in July $65 calls 13,000X
4/15/24 Wells Fargo (WFC) large opening sale 1350 March 2025 $60 puts 6.45
4/15/24 Novartis (NVS) buyer 1000 May $95 calls $2.60 offer
4/15/24 Pfizer (PFE) large buyers of 5000 May 10th $24 calls at $2.30 offer sweeps
4/15/24 Super Micro (SMCI) seeing 2250 May $1000 calls bought for $16.5M
4/15/24 Nvidia (NVDA) April 26th (W) $880 calls with 9500X bought this morning over $35M call premium
4/15/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 2600 January $185 calls $7.55
4/15/24 Meta (META) with 1900 May 31st $505 puts sell to open at $27, over $5M
4/15/24 Meta (META) also with 1500 May 31st $480 puts sell to open at $20