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Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:50 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:55 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, WING, CRWD, ISRG, ARM, DELL
4) 12:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, SNPS, CRM, APP
5) 13:50 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, AMAT, AMD, ACMR, MU
6) 15:30 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), CYTK, MGNX, MRUS, VKTX, CRNX, MEDP, NTRA
7) 17:20 Stock Review – Restaurants: CAVA, SHAK, CMG, TXRH, DPZ, FWRG, SG
8) 19:45 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: CART, SMCI, AMZN, NFLX, DECK, AXON, COIN, VRT, CLS, PSTG, NTAP, CELH
9) 23:40 UPDATE ON TRADE IDEAS FROM MARCH 29th WEEKEND VIDEO: UBER, META, CDNS, CYTK, DELL
10) 25:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I discussed in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
In this video, I review the positives and the negatives. NEGATIVES: Today’s inflation (CPI) report was hotter than expected. This is leading many to think the Fed will take their time with interest rate cuts. Higher yields, higher oil (due to geopolitical concerns), and higher gold prices. Also, some retail companies (Nike, Lululemon, ULTA Beauty) have mentioned concerns of a weaker consumer in their earnings calls. POSITIVES: The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are still in uptrends and above their respective 50-day moving averages. Many leading growth stocks are still acting well and holding key support levels. CONCLUSION: I’m sticking with this market and the thesis I outlined in the two 2024 Preview Videos until the market proves me otherwise. The main reason I emailed that Market Note on Tuesday was to remind members NOT to live in fear. In other words, I’m not going to live in fear until the market shows more distribution and/or I get stopped out of my positions. All things considered, I thought today (Wednesday) was a fairly resilient day considering the bad news pre-market. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
4/10/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) dip buyers in May $91 calls 3500X up to $3.30 offers
4/10/24 Treasury ETF (TLT) buyer 10,000 September $97 calls and sells 5000 September $80 puts
4/10/24 Nike (NKE) with 1000 March 2025 $75 puts sell to open $3.15
4/10/24 Lululemon (LULU) seeing some buyers of 3000 May $380 calls at $4.10 to $4.30
4/10/24 Lululemon (LULU) 1000 March 2025 $260 puts sells to open 10.35
4/10/24 DoorDash (DASH) 800 August 150 calls sell to open 10.90
4/10/24 Uber (UBER) with 1000 Dec 2026 72.50 calls selling to open for 24.60
4/10/24 Exxon (XOM) size buy 3500 Sept $120 puts $5.85 offer
4/10/24 Devon Energy (DVN) buyer 1000 March 2025 $52.50 calls $7.60 to $7.70
4/10/24 Devon Energy (DVN) also 1000 March 2025 52.50 puts sell to open 5.20 to 5.25
4/10/24 Citigroup (C) bull spreads into earnings selling Oct $52.50 puts to buy $62.5/$75 call spreads 5500X
4/10/24 Blackstone (BX) buyer 500 September $145 calls $4.60 to $4.65
4/10/24 J&J (JNJ) trade opens 1000 July $160/$135 bull risk reversals for $1.13
4/10/24 KB Homes (KBH) with 1000 Dec 2026 $80 calls bought as Dec 2025 $70 adjust
4/10/24 Teck Resources (TECK) more bull flow with buyers 2200 June $50 calls $3.05 to $3.35
4/10/24 Teck Resources (TECK) also 2000 May 55 calls buy here $1.16 vs. June $55 calls
4/10/24 Cameco (CCJ) buyers of 20,000 Jan $55 calls at $6.10 to $6.25
4/10/24 Qualcomm (QCOM) seeing buyers of 500 Jan 2026 $220 calls at $17.50 as the $180 calls adjust
4/10/24 Meta (META) 1500 May 3rd (W) $495 puts sell to open 19.90
4/10/24 Meta (META) also 1500 of the May 3rd (W) $490 puts selling to open $16
4/10/24 Meta (META) 5000 Dec 2026 $390 calls bought $213.70 as $410 adjust back
4/10/24 Nvidia (NVDA) April 26th (W) $830 calls opening 1450X for $8M with some strikes adjusting back
4/10/24 Apple (AAPL) 20,000 May 10th (W) $155 puts sell to open $0.88
4/10/24 Apple (AAPL) buyer 2300 March 2025 $165 calls $21.30 to $21.60
4/10/24 Amazon (AMZN) seeing a buyer of 1900 May 24th $180/$200 call spreads for $8.53
4/10/24 Micron (MU) large opening sale 1100 October $125 puts for 15.20
4/10/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyers in May 3rd (W) and May 10th (W) $150 strike calls 2600 combined, reports on 4-18
4/10/24 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 1500 June 2025 $490 calls $28.50 adjusting June 2024 $470 calls
4/10/24 Vertiv (VRT) seeing 500 far OTM January $130 calls bought $7.10
4/10/24 Vistra (VST) 2000 June 60 puts sell to open 1.80 to 1.60
4/9/24 Gold Miners ETF (GDX) with 7000 June $41/$32 bull risk reversals open at $0.38 credit
4/9/24 Gold ETF (GLD) with 10,000 July $210 calls bought with 1/2 selling $235 against and other 1/2 selling $240’s
4/9/24 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) buyers 4000 Sept $52/$60 call spreads
4/9/24 Biotech ETF (IBB) massive block of 36,000 Sept $121 puts is bought $2.10 as June 122 adjust
4/9/24 Spotify (SPOT) interesting spreads in Oct selling 420 of the $260 puts to buy $320/350 call spreads
4/9/24 Halliburton (HAL) large buy of 4000 Dec 2026 $40 calls at $10.50 in a single block
4/9/24 Apache (APA) seeing 3400 deep ITM July $40 puts sell to open for $6
4/9/24 Citigroup (C) with 4000 May 10th $60 calls buy at $2.82 as the April calls adjust out
4/9/24 Clean Harbors (CLH) with 1000 May $220/$240 call spreads buy at 2.25 with 500 April 200 calls adjusting
4/9/24 KB Homes (KBH) large opening sale of 3000 January $65 puts at $6.30
4/9/24 Caterpillar (CAT) opening sale 500 January $330 puts 16.60 to 16.65
4/9/24 Teck Resources (TECK) 1500 January $47 short puts open 4.70 as 2500 of the $40 adjust
4/9/24 Cameco (CCJ) with 2180 Jan 2026 $35 puts sell to open at $4.15
4/9/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 9300 May $150/$175 call spreads are bought for $5.80 as lower strikes adjust higher
4/9/24 Salesforce (CRM) 1100 October $340 calls selling to open 15.75 to 14.35 today
4/9/24 Dell (DELL) seeing 4000 August $100 deep ITM calls bought to open today near $26
4/9/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing a dip buyer of 1900 May 24th $900 calls at $49.30 to $51.65
4/8/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 4000 October $450 calls buy at $25.98, adjusting June $444.78 calls
4/8/24 Retail ETF (XRT) 5000 June $72/$65 put spreads bought, also 3550 January 2025 $72 puts sold to open $4.85
4/8/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) opening seller 1500 June $160 puts $6.24
4/8/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) also 1250 November 180 calls bought 7.35 offer
4/8/24 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 1500 December $200/$270 call spreads for $14.20
4/8/24 Lululemon (LULU) spreads selling July $300 puts to buy the $400/$450 call spreads 900X
4/8/24 Walmart (WMT) buyer of 2000 Dec $61.67 calls at $3.75 as April $56.67 calls adjust
4/8/24 Lowes (LOW) with 2025 May 24th $220 puts sell to open at $2.43, earnings 5/21
4/8/24 Occidental (OXY) buyer 2000 July $67.50 calls $4.48 to $4.55
4/8/24 Devon Energy (DVN) opening seller 1000 June 2025 52.50 puts $6.25
4/8/24 Coinbase (COIN) buyer of 200 December 2025 $500/$520 call spreads at $3.00
4/8/24 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) buyer 400 May $55 calls $10
4/8/24 Merck (MRK) sale of 1000 September $125 puts $5.40
4/8/24 AeroVironment (AVAV) unusual buy of 1200 July $180 calls at $3.70 to $3.80
4/8/24 Raytheon (RTX) 2500 August $110 calls bought $2.58
4/8/24 Raytheon (RTX) also buyer 1000 August $100 calls $6.95 offer
4/8/24 Northrop (NOC) buyer 550 August $490 calls $11.85
4/8/24 Northrop (NOC) also 200 Nov 380 puts sell to open 5.50
4/8/24 Lockheed (LMT) with 1500 July $500 calls bought $4.63
4/8/24 Teck Resources (TECK) seeing 1250 May 3rd (W) 50/55 call spreads bought
4/8/24 Meta (META) buyers in April 26th (W) $575 OTM calls that capture 4-24 earnings 2700X for $10
4/8/24 Meta (META) 500 January 2026 $425 puts sell to open $46.35
4/8/24 Celestica (CLS) with 2000 May $52.50 calls bought $3.30 to $3.50 and selling April $52.5 calls
4/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer June $875 calls 1000X against June $960 calls
4/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing a buyer of 1000 May 3rd $980 calls at $9.45 to $10.40
4/8/24 Synopsys (SNPS) with 815 May $520 puts sell to open 6.60 to 6.50
4/8/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) seller 1200 Jan 57.5 puts for $4.30
4/8/24 Amkor Technology (AMKR) 970 Sept $34 calls bought $2.90 as June $31 adjust
4/8/24 Z Scaler (ZS) 380 April 2025 $140 puts sell to open 12.25
4/8/24 Vistra (VST) buyer 3200 May $75 calls $5.28 as some $65 calls adjust