Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:20 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, WING, CRWD, ISRG, ARM, DELL
4) 18:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, SNPS, CRM, WDAY, ESTC
5) 21:25 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL
6) 23:45 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, KURA, ABOS, AQST, INZY, RXST, TMDX
7) 27:35 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMCI, NFLX, DECK, SHAK, CMG, TXRH, VRT, CLS, CAMT, PSTG, NTAP, CELH, CAVA
8) 31:15 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I’ve discussed in many recent videos and in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
I always like to be open-minded when I analyze the market and look at the positives and the negatives. Positives: 1) The market is in a strong uptrend. 2) It’s incredibly resilient. Every time it pulls back to its 21-day, I think it might see follow through selling down to its 50-day, but it bounces off its 21-day and proves to be very strong. 3) The upcoming week of regular cycle options expiration (OpEx) tends to lean to the upside. 4) Tech could run into Nvidia’s GTC Conference on Monday, March 18th. Negatives: 1) The Nasdaq Composite saw three days of distribution this week. I highlight them in this video. Just keep in mind that distribution can happen on the way up. 2) The S&P 500 hasn’t visited its 50-day moving average in a while. 3) The second half of March tends to see seasonal weakness. Conclusion: When there’s a mixed picture, I lean defensive. That doesn’t mean bearish. It simply means that I’m not looking for new buys, using lighter positions if I trade anything, and being VERY disciplined with entry points.
During this recent uptrend, I have been approximately 75-90% invested. I came into the week 90% invested and finished the week 80% invested. If this week sees strength into OpEx, I will look to reduce exposure. Again, this type of active management isn’t for everyone, which is why I encourage members to have your own plan and know your timeframe. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next LIVE webinar which will be this Monday, March 11th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
3/8/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing a large opening sale of 5000 Jan 2026 $450 puts at $17.73 to buy 5k of the June 2025 $575 calls at $19.26 for calendarized bull risk reversals, seeing strong support at 450 the next year
3/8/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 10k Sept $560 calls buy at $1.52 offer
3/8/24 Celsius Holdings (CELH) with a block of 1700 Jan 2026 $60 puts sold to open at $9.85, nearly $2M in premium
3/8/24 Abercrombie (ANF) with 1000 July $100 puts sold to open $6 to $5.90
3/8/24 Tesla (TSLA) with a large opening sale of 2500 Jan 2026 $130 puts at $18.93
3/8/24 Shopify (SHOP) 1250 deep ITM May $90 puts sell to open for 13.90
3/8/24 DoorDash (DASH) with 2000 Jan $100 puts sell to open at $6.78 as the $80 short puts adjust
3/8/24 Halliburton (HAL) seeing 1500 June 2025 $42/$40 bull risk reversals opening 3.14 credit
3/8/24 Devon Energy (DVN) with 1200 March 2025 $50 ITM puts sell to open at $7.90 to $8.10, over $1M
3/8/24 Coinbase (COIN) with 4000 April $330 calls being bought at $16.60 to $17.90
3/8/24 Waters (WAT) buyer 300 April $370 calls $10.80 as March 340 adjust
3/8/24 Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) unusual buy 200 January $70 calls for $17.80
3/8/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) large buyers late day for over 1000 Sept $100 deep ITM calls at $37.20
3/8/24 Salesforce (CRM) massive buyer of 1900 June 2025 $450 calls at $11.95 to $12
3/8/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) massive adjustment buys 65,000 June $140 calls at $19.45 as May $120 calls adjust
3/8/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) also buyers of 1100 Jan 2026 $180 calls at $28.40
3/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 March 22nd (W) $960 puts selling to open 54.30 to 53.70
3/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) $615M June $820 call position open 37,750X as May $720 adjust
3/8/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) 6000 April $67.5 puts selling to open 0.83
3/8/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 1000 September $82.50 calls for $10.90.
3/8/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyers of 2500 May $82.50 calls at $4.50
3/8/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing buyers of 4500 May $230 calls at $14 to $16
3/8/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) also with 1600 Sept $220 puts sell to open at $34.80 as the $170 short puts adjust up
3/8/24 Amazon (AMZN) with 4000 April 12th $185 calls buy $2.80 as weekly 180 calls adjust
3/8/24 Vertiv (VRT) with 2050 March 28th (W) $80 calls bought 1.55 offers
3/7/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) large hedgers buying 76,000 April $198 puts at $2.42, adjusting the $194 puts in a ongoing hedge
3/7/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also a block of 3000 Dec $174 puts sell to open for $3.96
3/7/24 Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) large blocks buying 2600 August $70 calls at $7.50 to $7.55
3/7/24 Energy ETF (XLE) buyer of 10,000 April $89 calls at $1.78, adjusting March $85 calls
3/7/24 Treasury ETF (TLT) buyer of 4000 April 5th $93 calls for $3.55
3/7/24 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) large bullish opening sale 4000 Dec. 2026 $50 puts for 8.09
3/7/24 Tesla (TSLA) sees 5000 April 5th (W) $175 puts bought $9
3/7/24 McDonalds (MCD) 1350 March 22nd (W) $292.50 calls bought up to $5.40
3/7/24 Uber (UBER) 5850 April 12th (W) 70 puts sell to open 0.59
3/7/24 Live Nation (LYV) buyer 350 September $110 calls 6.50
3/7/24 Halliburton (HAL) opening seller of 10,760 April 5th $23 puts at $0.26
3/7/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) 500 September 180 calls sell to open 16.20
3/7/24 EOG Resources (EOG) large opening sale 900 September $120 puts $9.90
3/7/24 Blackstone (BX) 400 September $130 puts sell to open 13.50
3/7/24 Merck (MRK) 1500 March 28th (W) $125 calls bought 1.72 to 1.74
3/7/24 Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI) buyer 2000 May $70/$85 call spreads for $5.50
3/7/24 Carrier Global (CARR) buyer 1000 June $65 calls $1.65 offer
3/7/24 Boeing (BA) 500 January 2026 180 puts sell to open 19.05
3/7/24 Super Micro (SMCI) 1000 March 28th $1300/1400 call spreads buy at $19, as March 22nd adjust out a week
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 2900 April $1100 calls at $15.30 to $16
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) selling to open 1000 March 22nd $910 put at $44.20
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing 1600 Sept $920 calls active with buyers at $147
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 May $920 calls buying at $86 and 3k of the May $1200 calls buying at $19
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 1300 Jan 2026 $1150 calls at $18.25 to $186, adjusting the Jan 2025 $600 calls
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 May $675 puts sell to open $6.75
3/7/24 Nvidia (NVDA) May $915 calls bought 3400X at $90.65, $34M as the $710 calls adjust taking some massive profits off
3/7/24 Broadcom (AVGO) seeing 500 October $1860 calls buy at $49
3/7/24 Broadcom (AVGO) also buyers of 1000 April $1400 calls at $92 to $97
3/7/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) with buys of 850 October $480 max strike calls $9.80 to $10.10
3/7/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) aggressive buyer of 400 June 2025 $350 calls at $66.60
3/7/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) also buyers 450 Dec $470 calls for $900K
3/7/24 Microsoft (MSFT) buyers 4000 March 28th (W) $410 calls $6.20 to $6.25
3/7/24 Microsoft (MSFT) also 1000 March 22nd (W) $415 calls bought 3.90 offer
3/7/24 Microsoft (MSFT) large May 440 short calls roll to Oct 460 4500X
3/7/24 DataDog (DDOG) sale to open 1200 May 105 puts for 3.30 to 3.25
3/7/24 Micron (MU) large buys of 3000 Sept $110 calls at $8.50 to $8.75
3/7/24 ACM Research (ACMR) seeing 800 August $40 calls bought $4 to $4.20
3/7/24 Meta (META) large buyers of 1000 June $525 puts at $44.82 as the $400 puts adjust
3/7/24 Cadence Design (CDNS) buyers 400 January $420 calls $12.40 offer
3/7/24 Amazon (AMZN) 1400 September $205 calls bought 7.85 offers
3/7/24 Jabil (JBL) reports next week 3/15 and seeing 450 Oct $195 calls buy at $6.60 offer
3/7/24 Dell (DELL) seeing 2k March 22nd $130 calls buying at $1.65 to $1.90
3/7/24 Dell (DELL) buyer 1000 January 2026 $140 calls $22.20 to $22.45 as bulls continue to position strong for long-term upside on AI server growth