Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:15 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, META, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, WING, CRWD, ISRG, ARM
4) 16:40 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), PANW, ZS, CDNS, SNPS, CRM, WDAY
5) 18:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL
6) 20:30 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, ACAD, ABOS, KURA, RXST, PRCT, TMDX
7) 23:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMCI, NFLX, DECK, VRTX, VRT, CLS, CAMT, PSTG, NTAP, CELH, CAVA, ONON
8) 28:50 Stocks Near Buyable Ranges: NOW, VRTX, CAMT
9) 29:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I’ve discussed in many recent videos and in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
When the Nasdaq Composite gets 3-4% extended from its 21-EMA, that is when it runs into a higher probability of pulling back or at least pausing/correcting through time. Currently, it is +2.9% above that level. If money continues to flow into the market early this upcoming week, that could be an area to expect a minor pullback. That doesn’t mean short, that doesn’t mean buy puts, it’s simply a reminder for something to look out for this week. I don’t like to micro manage things, but maybe we get some strength early in the week, a minor pullback later in the week, and then strength into next week’s OpEx. Either way, I’m just going to keep things simple and take things day-by-day. I am currently 90% invested, and my plan is to lighten up around mid-March because I expect some end-of-the-quarter rebalancing and profit-taking around that time. I will update you as the time approaches, but I don’t want members to panic. I’ve simply noticed that strong quarters tend to see profit-taking around the second half of March, June, and September. Overall, just keep things simple, know your timeframe, and don’t overcomplicate things. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Option Activity:
3/1/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 1800 April 30th $522 calls buying at $5.10 to $5.65
3/1/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing some large long term flows with 4000 June 2025 $635 calls bought at $3.65 to $3.80
3/1/24 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) with 1750 June $240 calls buying at $6.20 to $6.75
3/1/24 Gold ETF (GLD) sees size buyers of 12,000 April $195 calls at $1.80 to $2.20
3/1/24 S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) with 5800 Sept $170 calls bought at $5.06, nearly $3M
3/1/24 Nike (NKE) buyer 1000 March 22nd (W) $102 calls for $4.40 offer targets earnings 3-21
3/1/24 Tesla (TSLA) buys 1000 Jan 2026 $360 calls at $20.20, and sells 1k of the $180 puts at $34.01 in bull risk reversals at a net credit
3/1/24 DoorDash (DASH) 2000 May 140 calls sell to open 6.31
3/1/24 Diamondback Energy (FANG) buyer of 1000 May $200 calls at $3.10 offers
3/1/24 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) with 2000 April $125 calls sell to open at $5.10 bids
3/1/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) buyers of 1000 April 5th $800 calls at $19.50 to $22
3/1/24 Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) large trade buys 4500 July $40/$90 call spreads at $11.50
3/1/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buys 2500 May $810 calls for $15M
3/1/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also saw those max timeframe/strike Dec. 2026 $1640 calls add more yesterday
3/1/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing 2900 March 28th $890 puts sell to open at $91.40 as some weekly $830 short puts adjust out
3/1/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing buyers of 1500 April $825 calls at $50 to $51.40
3/1/24 Salesforce (CRM) 2000 April $330/$290 bull risk reversals trade for $2.39
3/1/24 Snowflake (SNOW) late day large opening sale of 3000 June 2025 $180 puts at $29.45, over $9M
3/1/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) with 3k March $136 calls buy at $3.85 as the $130 calls adjust up
3/1/24 Broadcom (AVGO) seeing 700 May $1640 calls open for $1.9M as the $1570 adjust
3/1/24 Broadcom (AVGO) also sees 2000 April $1250 puts sell to open at $24.60
3/1/24 Pure Storage (PSTG) 1000 May $60 calls bought 1.60 to 1.80
3/1/24 Celestica (CLS) buyers active in April $45 calls 1100X and April $47.5 calls 1200X for $800K net premium
3/1/24 Dell (DELL) seeing 1100 April $115/$145 call spreads buying at $8.20
3/1/24 Palantir (PLTR) seeing 1000 Nov $20/30 call spreads buying, and also sells 1000 of the Nov $16 puts at $1.08
3/1/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1300 June $195 puts sell to open $17.80 to $17.20
3/1/24 Nova Measuring (NVMI) large trade sells to open 1500 August $155 puts at $6.23 to buy the $185/$210 call spreads for $10.05, adjusting the March spreads
3/1/24 Meta (META) massive opening sale of 2500 June 2026 $510 puts at $91.45, adjusting the Dec 2025 short puts from just yesterday
3/1/24 Meta (META) also with opening sales of 4000 April $480 puts at $10, relentless bull flows continue
2/29/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 185,000 Dec $390 puts open $11.39 today as Sept 379.78 adjust a long running hedge
2/29/24 Treasury ETF (TLT) buyer 3000 June $94 calls $3.38 to $3.40
2/29/24 Gold ETF (GLD) buyer 10K July $210 calls to open 1.12
2/29/24 Costco (COST) 1000 April $720 short puts opening as $680 adjust
2/29/24 Skechers (SKX) with 600 January $60 puts sold to open 5.20
2/29/24 Tesla (TSLA) opening sale 818 Jan 2026 $145 puts 19.55 and 500 Nov $210 puts sell to open 33.25
2/29/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 3350 April $110/$95 bull risk reversals opening 1.55 debit
2/29/24 Lyft (LYFT) unusual sweep buy 1090 May 2025 $25 calls $2.30 offer
2/29/24 Cava Group (CAVA) large buys of 1150 April $50 ITM calls at $10.20
2/29/24 Canadian Natural (CNQ) buyer of 1000 Sept $75 calls at $3.70 and sells 500 $65 puts at $3.85
2/29/24 SL Green (SLG) 3000 April $52.5 calls sell to open 2.31 as March 50 adjust
2/29/24 Verisk Analytics (VRSK) unusual buying in June $260 calls 890X for $470K
2/29/24 Citigroup (C) buyer of 1800 Sept $47 ITM calls at $10.10
2/29/24 Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) buyer of 1500 March $330/$350 call spreads at $4.50
2/29/24 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) buyer of 250 May $80 ITM calls at $20.50
2/29/24 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) also 200 Jan 2026 $85 put sell to open at $28.50
2/29/24 Acadia Pharma (ACAD) buyer 1000 April $25 calls $1.84, recent large put seller into weakness
2/29/24 Krystal Bio (KRYS) with 2000 May $210 calls selling to open 6.30 to 5.20
2/29/24 Recursion Pharma (RXRX) opening sales 1000 each June $13 and $12 puts, the NVDA Bio investment
2/29/24 Amgen (AMGN) buyer of 300 Oct $305 calls at $10.50
2/29/24 Emerson Electric (EMR) buyer of 700 Sept $110 calls at $6
2/29/24 Snowflake (SNOW) opening sale 625 December $185 puts for $28.05
2/29/24 Snowflake (SNOW) also with 2400 May $185 calls at $15.50 to $17
2/29/24 Snowflake (SNOW) with 300 August $195 calls buying for $600K
2/29/24 Dell (DELL) reporting tonight and seeing odd buyers of 1000 July $130 calls at $1.25
2/29/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) large buyers of 275 Jan 2026 $450 calls at $55.35 and also 900 of the $480 calls buy at $47.35
2/29/24 ServiceNow (NOW) opening sale of 300 August $580 puts at $10.40
2/29/24 Nvidia (NVDA) seeing size opening sales in next week $795 and $785 puts
2/29/24 Nvidia (NVDA) opening seller of 1400 April $790 puts at $44.50
2/29/24 Salesforce (CRM) buyers in May $300 calls $14.25 to $14.40 and some at $15.75 looking to add to OI
2/29/24 Pure Storage (PSTG) seeing 1500 May $55 calls pay $1.95 offer
2/29/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1550 July $270 far OTM calls bought $3.70 offer
2/29/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) also big buy flow into April $195 calls with 5500X at $5M opening hour
2/29/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) block of 5000 May $195 calls is bought $14 as April 175 adjust
2/29/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) with 2000 March $128 calls bought $3.25 to $3.30 against $135 calls
2/29/24 Apple (AAPL) sale to open 400 June 2026 $185 puts for $21
2/29/24 Meta (META) massive opening seller of 2300 Dec 2025 $510 ITM Puts at $88.73, adjusting the June 2025 $530 short puts