Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:10 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, VRTX, WING, PANW, CRWD
4) 18:05 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, SNPS, ADBE, CRM, DDOG, WDAY, ESTC
5) 20:50 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL, ARM
6) 22:40 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), ACAD, MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, KRYS
7) 28:10 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, NFLX, DELL, VRT, SMCI, BKNG, DECK, CLS, FN, CAMT, ANET, RXST, ISRG, XHB (ETF), ITB (ETF), OC, SHOP
8) 32:40 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
I start this video by discussing different strategies for members who have different timeframes. The main reason I bring this up is that some members emailed me to express frustration that they sold some stocks recently that went higher. First, don’t get frustrated, especially if you have a gain! Secondly, as I’ve said many times, my style of active portfolio management isn’t for everyone. I choose to reduce into strength when I see the probabilities of a pullback coming. Sometimes I get it right, and other times I get it wrong. That’s why I sell PARTIAL positions to reconcile this potential problem. In other words, if things go higher, I can hopefully participate (as I did this week), and if things go lower, I hopefully don’t get hit as bad and can minimize the downside volatility. As always, I encourage members to keep working on a plan that fits your risk tolerance, temperament, and overall investment objectives. Hopefully, you will find the suggestions at the beginning of this video helpful.
From here, I still think the market will see a pullback into the end of the month, but I must admit that the market is very strong. Beneath the surface, it’s mostly technology that’s strong, as 10 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are not at all time highs. In addition, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) is still down YTD. Either way, I will take this day-by-day and stay focused on my plan. If we pullback (either through price or time) over the next two weeks, I will look to add exposure into many of the Focus List names. Remember, do your best to NOT get frustrated. Just keep working on making progress and make sure your self-talk is strong. For the members that keep doing well, congrats and please continue to stay focused. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend!
Unusual Option Activity:
1/19/24 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) buyer 4000 June $170/$200 call spreads
1/19/24 Gold ETF (GLD) opening sale 2000 April $187 puts 3.05
1/19/24 Oil ETF (USO) buyers 6500 March $75 calls $1.73 offers
1/19/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) size buys 4000 May $479 calls for $7M
1/19/24 Tesla (TSLA) 1000 May $165 puts sell to open 5.75
1/19/24 Tesla (TSLA) 4000 May $280 calls bought $4.55 to $4.70
1/19/24 Elf Beauty (ELF) opening sellers today for 1250 August $95 puts at $3.50 bids
1/19/24 WingStop (WING) with 200 January 2025 $280 calls opening as January $210 adjust
1/19/24 Occidental (OXY) seeing midday buyers of 2600 Aug $67.5 calls at $1.36 to $1.41 offers
1/19/24 Schlumberger (SLB) seeing 2000 March $52.50 puts sell to open here $3.85 bids
1/19/24 Conoco (COP) with 3400 April 90 puts sold to open 1.42 and also selling April $120 calls.
1/19/24 Arcus (RCUS) 1700 Feb $12.50 calls buying for 2nd day as Jan calls adjust
1/19/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) with 1300 March $90 calls opening over $7 as some $85 adjust up
1/19/24 Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) buyer 1000 February $22 calls $3.30 sweep offer
1/19/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) seeing a buyer of 800 Feb $370/$400 call spreads for $11.35, reports 1/23
1/19/24 Apellis Pharma (APLS) opening sale of 900 Dec $70 calls at $11.37 as the June short calls adjust out in time
1/19/24 Merus (MRUS) opening sale 885 Dec $35 puts $6.85, very bullish for the Biotech trading $34
1/19/24 Regeneron Pharma (REGN) seeing 199 August $810 puts sell to open for $20.50
1/19/24 PulteGroup (PHM) buyer 600 January 2025 $120 calls 8.60 offer
1/19/24 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 4000 March $390 puts sell to open $11.50 to $11.40 showing a lot of confidence into earnings
1/19/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 2000 April $455 puts selling to open $6.35, also size buys 4200 April $700 calls $13.45+
1/19/24 Salesforce (CRM) massive buy of 5250 June 2025 $400 calls $11.40 with stock at $277
1/19/24 Meta (META) buyer of 1250 March $405 calls at $12.25
1/19/24 Meta (META) also seeing 1200 June $395 puts sell to open at $35.98 as the $330 short puts adjust higher
1/19/24 Dell (DELL) trade opens 350 January 2025 $82.5/$80 bull risk reversals for $3.50
1/19/24 Celestica (CLS) 1250 Feb $27.50 calls bought for $3.50 offer sweeps
1/19/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) more long-dated bull flow buys 1000 Jan 2026 77.5 calls $25
1/19/24 Google (GOOG) buyer 2800 September $145/$155 call spreads
1/19/24 Broadcom (AVGO) sees 100 Jan 2025 $1210 puts sell to open at $150.85, over $1.5M willing to be long up here
1/19/24 Apple (AAPL) opening sale of 1800 May $190 puts for $7.65 down to $7.45 bids
1/19/24 Apple (AAPL) also seeing a late day opening seller of 2500 August $225 calls for $2.56
1/19/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 1100 May $195 calls buying for $8.75 to $10
1/18/24 Energy ETF (XLE) opening seller of 1300 December 2026 $65 puts at $6.20
1/18/24 Oil & Gas Services ETF (XES) unusual buy 4000 March $85 calls $1.80 offer, seeing Energy bull flows today finally
1/18/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) large sale to open of 3000 January 2026 $80 puts for 9.99
1/18/24 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 1000 August $220 calls $30.94 to open
1/18/24 Tesla (TSLA) also seeing some decent size lots opening sales of 2500 Feb 9th $185 puts for $2.43 bids
1/18/24 Dick’s Sporting (DKS) buyer 1000 June $150 calls $10
1/18/24 On Holding (ONON) opening seller 2000 July $25 puts for 2.40
1/18/24 Lululemon (LULU) opening seller 400 April $510 puts for $46.35
1/18/24 Ford (F) buyers of over 12k May $12 calls at $0.43 offer sweeps
1/18/24 McDonald’s (MCD) opening seller of 550 Sept $300 calls for $14.80 bids
1/18/24 DraftKings (DKNG) seeing a large buyer of 18,900 March $38 calls at $2.80 as the $34 calls adjust
1/18/24 Spotify (SPOT) buyer 300 March $210 calls 13.50 to 13.80
1/18/24 Uber (UBER) buyer of 1500 June 2025 $90 calls at $5.52
1/18/24 Uber (UBER) also 3000 Jan 2026 $42.50 calls opening $29.40 and Jan 2024 adjust
1/18/24 Baker Hughes (BKR) seeing 1750 April $30 puts sell to open for $1.40 as Jan’s adjust
1/18/24 Schlumberger (SLB) sale to open 1200 July $45 puts for 2.68 into earnings
1/18/24 Occidental Petro (OXY) opening seller 2000 December $55 puts 4.70 bid
1/18/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) with 465 Jan 2025 $90 ITM calls buy at $24.37 as Jan $80s adjust
1/18/24 Amylyx Pharma (AMLX) buyer of 1308 Feb $15 calls at $1.50 as Jan adjust
1/18/24 Marinus Pharma (MRNS) unusual large buys of 2200 July $10 calls $3.25 to $3.50 in the small Biotech
1/18/24 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) opening seller of 195 July $430 calls for $38.20 down to $37.80
1/18/24 Boeing (BA) sees a buyer of 1000 Feb 9th $200 ITM calls at $12.70 to $13.10, earnings 1/31
1/18/24 Microsoft (MSFT) large opening seller of 6000 Feb 23rd $390 puts for $10.75
1/18/24 ASML (ASML) with 200 April $710 calls buy at $57.97 as the Jan $705 calls adjust
1/18/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer 1000 Jan 2026 $75 calls $23.90 as massive bull positioning continues
1/18/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 2200 March $610/$660 call spreads bought as lower strike spreads move up the chain
1/18/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 3500 Feb $580 calls at $21.45 as Jan $540 calls adjust and also sells the Feb $500 puts at 43.20
1/18/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also 500 June $570 puts sell to open 54.10
1/18/24 Dynatrace (DT) 1500 August $42.5 put sell to open 1.20
1/18/24 Salesforce (CRM) with 2265 March $290/$240 bull risk reversals opening as January 270 calls adjust
1/18/24 Lam Research (LRCX) buyers of 1200 March $800 calls at $37.35 and also sells to open 1200 March $650 puts at $6.10 for bullish risk reversals at a debit
1/18/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) large trade buys 14,000 April $72.50 calls for $4.90 adjusting up the $65 calls from last weeks buys
1/18/24 Apple (AAPL) opening sale 10,000 Jan 2026 $300 calls 2.50
1/18/24 Apple (AAPL) 4000 June 2025 $210 calls being sold to open 15.90
1/18/24 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) with 800 June $280 puts selling to open near $34.60
1/18/24 Oracle (ORCL) with 400 January 2026 $90 puts sold to open 7.42
1/18/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyers of 1375 May $471 calls for $20.13
1/18/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also seeing opening put sellers active for 2000 May 31st $439 puts at $5.31
1/18/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large aggressive buyer for over 72,000 Feb 2nd $480 calls at $2.43 offers, captures FOMC meeting that week, over $19M bought