Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:00 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, VRTX, WING, PANW, CRWD
4) 10:35 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, CRM, DDOG, WDAY, ESTC
5) 12:20 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), ACAD, MGNX, VKTX, MDGL
6) 17:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SMH (ETF), AMD, AVGO, META, CAMT, CELH, VRT, CLS, DECK, FWRG, ABOS, RKLB
7) 20:25 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
As I mentioned in recent videos, I am expecting a normal pullback to the 50-day moving average from around Jan 17-31. It looks like it started this week and there are a few points I would like to make: 1) The pullback doesn’t have to be straight down. In other words, we can bounce higher, move lower, and bounce again until the major indexes eventually reach their 50-day. The point here is to expect a choppy environment and to keep your expectations realistic over the near-term. 2) If we do pullback, I will look to add to some relative strength names, and so far, it looks like many of the Focus List names are holding up very well. Please keep in mind that I am bullish this year, I just think the majority of the gains will occur during the second half of the year. Please see the 2024 Preview for more clarification. 3) We can also correct through time instead of price. If this happens, and the indexes go sideways, that will be great information from the market showing us how strong it really is beneath the surface.
Rather than guess if this pullback will be through price or through time, I prefer to be patient, especially during this seasonally weak period. As I mentioned last week, I reduced from 90% to 50% invested, and I’m in no rush to put money back to work until I see how things play out over the next two weeks. So far, this pullback seems orderly. If it continues to be a normal pullback, I will look to increase my exposure, but again, I just want to be patient for now. I don’t have FOMO if we bounce for a day or two. Also, I can’t stress this enough: PLEASE HAVE YOUR OWN PLAN AND KNOW YOUR TIMEFRAME! My active style of portfolio management is not for everyone. For example, if you can’t watch the market closely or have trouble making decisions, you can always use lighter positions, expand your timeframe, and give things more room to work for you. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
1/17/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 2000 Feb 9th (W) $403 puts today for $1.1M
1/17/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also 3000 Feb $412 calls selling to open 5.26
1/17/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeing 2000 October $195 calls sell to open for $12.95
1/17/24 Energy ETF (XLE) with 5000 April $80/$90 call spreads opening for $3.33
1/17/24 Crocs (CROX) buyer 1300 Feb $100 calls for $5.10
1/17/24 Procter & Gamble (PG) with 1100 Sept $155 calls selling to open for $6.55 to 6.45
1/17/24 Shopify (SHOP) buyers of 2000 Feb 2nd $80 calls at $2.20 to $2.30
1/17/24 Shopify (SHOP) also sweep buyer 1500 Feb 2nd (W) $78 calls $3.30 offer
1/17/24 DraftKings (DKNG) 1500 January 2025 $37 puts sell to open for $7.50
1/17/24 Occidental (OXY) buyer of 2100 August $67.50 calls at $1.54 offers
1/17/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) seeing a buyer of 750 June $125 calls at $1.65
1/17/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) large bull risk reversals 1000X sell the Jan 2025 $100 puts and buy the $125 calls adjusting the $100 calls
1/17/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with 800 Feb 23rd $320 puts sell to open at $2.63
1/17/24 Macrogenics (MGNX) size buys here 2800 June $10 calls up to $3.50, follows some bull positioning yesterday
1/17/24 G1 Therapeutics (GTHX) unusual 1490 April $5 calls buy 0.95
1/17/24 Oscar Health (OSCR) more bull flow today with 2000 February $12 calls bought $0.80
1/17/24 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 2800 May $435 calls bought for $2M with Feb $400 calls adjusting
1/17/24 Microsoft (MSFT) also with 1400 April $385 puts sell to open at $16.15
1/17/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) more bull flow with another 2750 Jan 2026 $67.5 calls buying
1/17/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 30,000 March $530 calls $50.15 as the $500 calls adjust up
1/17/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyers of 2000 Feb 9th $165 calls at $4.15 offer
1/17/24 DataDog (DDOG) with size buys 2750 Feb $125 calls $6.80 to $7.25
1/17/24 Adobe (ADBE) opening sale of 350 June 2025 $400 puts for $16.70 down to $16.40
1/17/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) opening sale 3500 Jan 2025 $60 puts 1.04
1/17/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) late day trades selling Sept $95 puts 2750X at $5.35 and the $75 puts 4000X
1/17/24 Google (GOOGL) massive opening sale of 4600 June 2025 $125 puts for $9.50 down to $9.35 bids, confident long term willing buyer
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyers of 52,000 March $452 puts at $2.98, adjusting the $455 puts as ongoing hedge
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also buyers of 4000 Feb 23rd $474 calls at $10 and buyer of 2000 May $470 ITM calls at $22 to $22.80
1/16/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) large buyer of 1170 Dec 2026 $580 calls at $25.80, long term bull
1/16/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) similar to SPY seeing 71,000 March $182 puts buy at $2.63, adjusting $184 puts
1/16/24 Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) buyer of 2000 Jan 2026 $45 calls at $8.10 to $8.30
1/16/24 Software ETF (IGV) with 1500 Feb $435 calls buying at $1.55 to $1.60 as Jan $410 calls adjust up
1/16/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) buyers of 2000 March $130 calls for $7.40 as the $145 calls adjust
1/16/24 Retail ETF (XRT) buyers of 4300 Feb 23rd $66 puts for $1.20
1/16/24 Celsius Holdings (CELH) seeing 450 Jan 2025 $75 ITM puts sell to open 20.85, more bull flow in the name
1/16/24 Tesla (TSLA) seeing large opening sellers of 1000 Dec $200 puts for $25.15 to $25.80 bids, over $2.5M
1/16/24 Uber (UBER) seeing 800 Jan 2025 $90 calls buying at $3.35
1/16/24 Uber (UBER) also 1200 Sept $85 calls buy at $2.38 to $2.50, continues to see bull flows
1/16/24 Schlumberger (SLB) 2500 March $50 calls sell to open 2.27
1/16/24 Occidental (OXY) opening sale 1000 March 1st (W) $58 puts for 2.44
1/16/24 Blackstone (BX) opening sale 400 January 2026 $100 puts 12.45
1/16/24 Blackstone (BX) also 350 November $120 puts sell to open $14.25
1/16/24 Macrogenics (MGNX) unusual 975 June $15 calls bought $1.35
1/16/24 Cameco (CCJ) buyer of 5000 Feb 2nd $53 calls at $0.93 offer
1/16/24 Microsoft (MSFT) 1900 April $435 calls sell to open 5.05
1/16/24 Adobe (ADBE) afternoon buyer 1000 March $590 puts $24.35+
1/16/24 Palo Alto (PANW) 200 March 1st (W) $315 calls bought $29.95
1/16/24 Google (GOOGL) seeing 1000 Dec 2026 $120 puts sell to open at $12.80 down to $12.65
1/16/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1100 July $250 max strike calls buy at $1.99 to $2
1/16/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) large buyers for 4400 Feb 2nd $150 calls at $12.10 adjusting the $148 calls
1/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1500 June $860 calls sell to open 5.10
1/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) massive 30K March $500 calls open as Feb. $460 adjust 20K
1/16/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1500 March 1st (W) $465 puts sell to open $4, seller 1100 Feb 23rd (W) $560 puts to open $28.45 and lower, the $555 puts also sold to open 1250X $26.10 and 1200 of the $550 puts also sold to open