Compound and Friends Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu1gyVqeUws

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:55 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:25 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, VRTX
4) 13:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), ADBE, CRM, WDAY, CDNS, PANW, CRWD, ZS, QLYS
5) 16:45 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), MDGL, ITCI, IDYA, IMVT, INBX, IMCR, APLS, ABOS, ACAD, VKTX, AXSM, KRYS, RXST
6) 24:10 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, KLAC, LRCX, AMD
7) 25:00 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, NFLX, DELL, VRT, CLS, WING, CELH, DECK, SHOP, ANET, RKLB
8) 27:45 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
Since this new powertrend started in early November, I mentioned that I expected it to last until mid-January. Why? 1) Because these uptrends tend to last 8-12 weeks. 2) The major indexes tend to visit their 50-day moving averages every 3 months. 3) The week after January OpEx tends to see weakness. Basically, I am expecting a pullback to the 50-day moving average for both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 sometime between Jan 17-Jan 31.

The next question is: “What should I do?” I can’t answer that for you because I don’t know what every member is doing and I don’t know your timeframe. What I can do is give you transparency to what I am doing. Since early November, I’ve been approximately 80-90% invested. In last weekend’s video, I mentioned that I would start to lighten up if this week is strong. So far, I have reduced from 90% down to 80% invested. I’m planning to continue to reduce down to approximately 50% into early next week. I will take it on a stock-by-stock basis. I have to repeat something: THIS STYLE OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE!!! My tactical style might not work for you, especially if you can’t watch the market closely, have trouble making decisions, or have a longer-term timeframe. For example, a member might like a stock longer-term and not care about a potential pullback over the near-term.

I also want to stress that I’m not expecting a crash, just a normal pullback. The problem (based on the feedback I get from members) is that too many people stay aggressively loaded up, and when a normal pullback occurs, they get “killed” and give back too much of their profits. If this has happened to you in the past, this is just a reminder that it’s ok to take some profits into strength. Please remember that it doesn’t have to be full profits and that you can also take partial profits. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Monday, January 15th at 7PM EST. Also, just a reminder that the US markets are closed this Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity:
1/10/24 Cyber Security ETF (HACK) buyers of 3000 June $61 calls for $1.2M and 1700 of the June $63 calls bought $3.60
1/10/24 Retail ETF (XRT) large block of 50,000 June $62 puts sold to open $1.75
1/10/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) seller to open 1975 March 92 puts for 4.50 bids
1/10/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 5727 Feb $100 calls buy at $2.25 as Jan $90 calls adjust
1/10/24 Starbucks (SBUX) with 1650 Jan $93 calls bought early for $225K, size put sale yesterday too in the beat up name
1/10/24 Floor and Decor (FND) opening sale 1000 February $100 puts 2.50
1/10/24 Uber (UBER) seeing buyers of 4450 June $75 calls
1/10/24 Shopify (SHOP) July $75 puts selling to open 7.50 to 7.35 for 700X
1/10/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) with 1000 Feb. 2nd (W) $109 calls opening near $3.40 as January 103 adjust out and up
1/10/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) seeing 1265 March $115/$130 call spreads bought, a potential upside M&A target level
1/10/24 Vertiv (VRT) buyer of 3000 Feb $50 calls at $2.33 as Jan $47.50 calls adjust
1/10/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 2300 May $700 calls buying at $10 up to $10.55
1/10/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also with buyers 2000 April $645 calls $15.60 offer
1/10/24 Palo Alto (PANW) buyer near 500 Feb. 9th (W) $315 calls $9 to $9.75
1/10/24 Mobileye (MBLY) with 12,000 February $25 puts sold to open 0.25 to 0.20
1/10/24 Meta (META) with 1100 Feb 2nd $360 calls buying at $23.56 as some $350 calls roll higher
1/10/24 Microsoft (MSFT) large block buys 4000 June $495 calls at $1.38
1/10/24 Microsoft (MSFT) size buyer in Jan 26th (W) $380 calls $7.70 and $8.80, captures earnings
1/10/24 MongoDB (MDB) with 525 April $390 calls buying at $36.35 to $36.60
1/10/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) buyer 400 June $320 calls OTM for $17.55
1/10/24 Apple (AAPL) offer buyer 1500 Feb 23rd (W) $185 calls $5.70
1/9/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) opening sale 1000 Sept $91 puts for 7.50, also 1000 April $91 calls bought $7.30
1/9/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) also buyer 4000 March $103/$112 call spreads for 1.29
1/9/24 Ferrari (RACE) buyers of 1100 Jan $342.50 calls $6.20 to $6.70
1/9/24 Celsius Holdings (CELH) opening seller 1700 January $62 puts for $3.55
1/9/24 Starbucks (SBUX) large opening sale 850 September $90 puts for $5.30
1/9/24 Uber (UBER) with 1500 April $62.50 calls buy at $4.10, as some Jan $50 calls adjust
1/9/24 Chewy (CHWY) large opening sale 3000 Jan 2025 $25 calls for $4.22
1/9/24 Citigroup (C) more bull flow today with a long term buyer of 1000 Dec 2026 $57.50 calls at $8.75
1/9/24 Coinbase (COIN) opening sale of 300 Dec 2025 $150 puts at $55 to $54.95
1/9/24 TransMedics (TMDX) with interesting spreads selling 500 February 70 puts to buy the $85/$100 call spreads
1/9/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) with 10,000 Jan 120/130 call spreads bought with Novartis M&A bid pending
1/9/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) 250 Jan 2025 $110 puts sell to open 13.35 to 13.30
1/9/24 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) 300 Feb $420 puts sell to open $13.80 bids
1/9/24 Acadia Pharma (ACAD) unusual 2500 March $35 calls bought $0.90, in the Neuro space seeing a lot of M&A
1/9/24 Glaxo (GSK) with 2900 February $40 puts selling to open $1.10
1/9/24 Merck (MRK) with 4000 March $125/$105 bull risk reversals opening $1.15
1/9/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) opening sale 100 Sept $600 puts for $43.10
1/9/24 Boeing (BA) into the close seeing opening sellers of 1100 May $215 puts for $9.70 to $9.50
1/9/24 Apple (AAPL) seeing early buys of 2500 Feb 2nd $180 ITM calls at $7.00, captures earnings 2/1
1/9/24 Crowdstrike (CRWD) seeing 1100 Feb 2nd $300 calls buy at $1.64
1/9/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 1000 March $565 calls bought $21.37 as $525 adjust
1/9/24 Nvidia (NVDA) late day buyers of 1100 April $530/$570 call spreads for $16.75
1/9/24 Nutanix (NTNX) 1500 January $47.5 calls bought $0.85 offers, M&A watch
1/9/24 Nutanix (NTNX) also seeing upside buys 1900 February $52.50 calls at 0.60 offers
1/9/24 ServiceNow (NOW) opening sale 200 March $630 puts 11.40
1/9/24 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer of 3000 March $375/$405 call spreads selling the $350 puts
1/9/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer of 1250 Jan 2025 $75 calls for $13.60
1/9/24 Meta (META) with 1139 May $420 calls sold to open 11.30
1/9/24 Meta (META) with 1000 June 2025 $310 puts sell to open for $31.16 bids, over $3M
1/8/24 Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) seeing 5000 Feb 2nd $26 calls with buyers at $3.30
1/8/24 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) buyer 2500 June $195 OTM calls $4.50 and $4.60 offers
1/8/24 Tech ETF (XLK) large opening sales 2500 June 2025 $195 calls down to $20.40
1/8/24 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 1000 June 2026 $250 calls buy at $76.03, adjusting the Dec 2025 out in time, big long term bull for over $76M
1/8/24 Tesla (TSLA) 7500 Feb. 2nd (W) $275/$170 bull risk reversals open for $2.25 as March bull risk reversals adjust
1/8/24 Uber (UBER) 850 June 2025 $60 calls selling to open 12.20 bids
1/8/24 Home Depot (HD) with 2000 Feb. 2nd (W) $355 calls opening $3.50+
1/8/24 Exxon (XOM) buyers 1500 January 2025 $110 calls 6.30 offer
1/8/24 Conoco (COP) 1190 Feb. 9th (W) $118 calls bought $2.05
1/8/24 Valero (VLO) with 700 Dec 2025 $115/$105 bull risk reversals open at $19 debits
1/8/24 Citigroup (C) buys of 2800 Jan 2026 $57.50 calls at $6.70, reports on Friday
1/8/24 Morgan Stanley (MS) late day sweep buys of 2800 April $100 calls $2.39 offer
1/8/24 Merck (MRK) 4000 May $130 calls sell to open as Jan $120 short calls adjust giving more room for upside
1/8/24 J&J (JNJ) seeing 3000 Feb 23rd $165 calls sell to open at $1.95 bids
1/8/24 Broadcom (AVGO) buyers of 900 Feb $1200 calls at $5 up to $6.50
1/8/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) massive buy of 2500 Jan 2026 $67.5 calls $21.40
1/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers in Feb. 9th (W) $600 calls 3000X far OTM
1/8/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 1000 Jan 2025 $525/$625 call spreads for $37.15
1/8/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyers 2890 March $145 calls for $3.3M looking to add to OI
1/8/24 ServiceNow (NOW) with 210 May $710 ITM puts sell to open at $57.50 down to $56
1/8/24 Juniper Networks (JNPR) unusual buy 1000 April $33 calls $0.55 offer
1/8/24 Google (GOOG) with 1700 Feb $130 ITM calls buy at $12.55
1/8/24 Microsoft (MSFT) massive buyer of 32,750 March $350 ITM calls for $30.04 as the Feb calls adjust out from mid-November buyers