Link to IBD Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xrr_eT_qfys
Link to CNBC Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rucTDqfOU1g
Seasonal statistics on late June/early July: https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1670119283391893504

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:00 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ORCL, CDNS, ISRG, CELH, LLY, PANW, NOW, TSLA
4) 12:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, LRCX, MRVL, ACLS, ALGM
5) 14:15 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), ADBE, CRM, AI, DT, FTNT, SNPS
6) 16:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: ITB (ETF), XBI (ETF), AXSM, KRYS, ETNB, ABOS, WING, CMG, SHAK, SWAV, DXCM, SDGR, RXST, QTRX, DECK, ONON, DKNG
7) 24:40 Stocks near buyable ranges: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, CELH
8) 25:30 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
In today’s Saturday webinar, many members asked my current views on the market. I’m not sure if I haven’t been clear in the past several videos or if members just want to make sure I’m still bullish, lol, so I will keep it simple. We are in a bull market and I am bullish into year-end. The main reasons include AI, the end of the current rate hiking cycle, and the overall technicals are strong. In the Seminar Videos, I present an outline for you, and then do my best to apply this blueprint to the current market. In my efforts to keep things simple, I will summarize it in four steps.

1) Is the market healthy? Yes, we are above all the key moving averages and growth stocks are acting well. 2) When the market is healthy, I do my best to keep exposure to the strongest growth stocks out there. That’s why I present a Focus List for you. Of course, you can trade whatever you want, I’m just doing my best to stick with some of the market leaders. 3) Get those strong entry points! No matter your timeframe, make sure to use the 21-day EMA as your guide and DO NOT chase extended stocks. 4) Manage your trades. This is the hardest part because it involves making decisions, being mentally tough, and constantly working on your overall plan. You have to accept that you’ll never get the high or the low, so do your best to take profits into strength and cut losses when wrong. A Friday decisive close below the 10-week moving average is my suggested stop loss, and my absolute line in the sand longer-term stop loss is the 200-day moving average.

When I say I’m bullish, please keep in mind that we will have normal pullbacks and consolidations along the way. For example, shorter-term, the seasonality is strong over the next two weeks of July. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a normal pullback down to the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 later this summer. Again, do your best to stay mentally tough, stick with strong stocks, and manage trades as best as you can. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity:
7/7/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening sale 13,000 December $365 puts $15.30 adjusts short $330 puts
7/7/23 Semi Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) buyer 2000 November $23 calls at $4.55 offer
7/7/23 Energy ETF (XLE) large buy write sell to open 15,000 July 28th $82 calls at $1.37, seeing limited upside into July
7/7/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyer of 40,000 Sept $421 puts at $3.84, adjusting $418 puts as a hedge likely
7/7/23 Crocs (CROX) with 1000 August $135 calls bought $2.15 to $2.30 in aggressive orders
7/7/23 Pepsi (PEP) buyer of 800 June $195 calls for $8.95, adjusting October calls
7/7/23 Lyft (LYFT) buyer 2500 June 2024 $12 calls for $1.97 offer
7/7/23 Uber (UBER) large block 5000 January 2025 $40 puts sold to open for $6.10
7/7/23 Exxon Mobil (XOM) midday buyer of 5000 Sept $110 calls at $1.85
7/7/23 Schlumberger (SLB) seeing buyers of 1300 November $57.50 calls at $2.80
7/7/23 Schlumberger (SLB) also seeing 200 Jan 2025 $67.50 deep ITM puts sell to open at $18.95
7/7/23 Hess (HES) with 1500 November $155 calls bought at $4.20 offers
7/7/23 Arcus Bio (RCUS) with 1000 Nov $22.50 calls bought to $3.60 while seeing the Aug $17.50 puts sold to open 1250x for $0.55
7/7/23 Toll Brothers (TOL) with 1650 Sept $70 puts sell to open $1.25 to buy 2750 Sept $80/90 call spreads for $2.69
7/7/23 DR Horton (DHI) 1730 August 25th $105 puts sell to open at $1.25 to buy 2890 of the $120/$130 call spreads at $2.50
7/7/23 Lennar (LEN) selling to open 1375 Aug 25th $110 puts at $1.00 to buy the $125/$135 call spreads for $2.45
7/7/23 Oracle (ORCL) spreads selling 2000 July $113 puts and buying 2000 August 25th (W) $118 calls
7/7/23 Meta (META) buyers in October $295 calls 1400X today for $3.5M
7/7/23 Coherent (COHR) January $95 calls up to 2000X bought
7/6/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large buyers of over 50,000 March $330 puts for $10.95, likely a hedge
7/6/23 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 1500 Dec 182 puts selling to open 8.22 into weakness
7/6/23 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) buyer of 3000 Dec 2025 $41 puts at $6.26, adjusting June 2025 $40 puts
7/6/23 Crocs (CROX) large opening sale 500 January 2025 $100 puts for $17.90
7/5/23 Uber (UBER) buyer 2000 June 2024 $47.5/$32.5 strangles that leans firmly bullish
7/6/23 Wingstop (WING) with 400 August $190 calls sold to open 11.10
7/6/23 Devon Energy (DVN) buyer 1000 July 28th (W) $45 calls 2.78
7/6/23 Range Resources (RRC) buyer for over 2200 January $37 calls at $0.95 offers
7/6/23 J&J (JNJ) buyers of 375 June $135 ITM calls at $31.50
7/6/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers active in next week $420 calls 2500X, $7.95 offer trades
7/6/23 Marvell Tech (MRVL) opening sale 750 June 2024 $50 puts 5.43
7/6/23 Palo Alto (PANW) with 650 Aug 4th $240 calls bought at $16.05, adjusting some January $176.67 calls
7/6/23 Palo Alto (PANW) also 800 July 257.5 puts sell to open 8.05
7/6/23 Micron (MU) buyer of 3500 September $62.50 calls for $3.25
7/6/23 C3.AI (AI) seeing buyers of 3500 July $39 calls for $3.50