Latest Blog Post: https://joefahmy.com/2022/04/12/why-the-market-has-limited-upside-for-now

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:10 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), OIH (ETF), XOP (ETF), APA, DVN, EOG, FANG, OXY, MPC, BKR, HP, SM
4) 11:25 Stock Review – Commodity Related: AMR, ARCH, ARLP, CEIX, IPI, PCRX, BCTX, LXU, CENX, ATI
5) 14:20 Stock Review – Software Security: SAIL, MNDT, PANW, CRWD, QLYS, PING, FTNT, RDWR
6) 17:00 Stock Review – Big Pharma/Medical Products: LLY, VRTX, REGN, MRK, BMY, SWAV, PRCT, INSP, CORT, LNTH
7) 19:20 Stock Review – Relative Strength Watchlist: HRMY, ITCI, SRRA, CLH, NKTX
8) 21:20 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
The blog post above summarizes the points I’ve made in the past few videos. Bottom line: I don’t see any sustained upside in the market until the Fed stops their rate-hiking cycle or at least pauses it. That doesn’t mean the market has to go down. We could stay in a range until their hawkish tone subsides. The biggest positive is that many stocks are still acting well and they are mostly in the commodity-related sectors, big pharma, and some medical products. The biggest negative is that the weight of the market could keep many stocks from seeing sustained upside. Also, the major indexes are below their 200-day moving averages, so it’s worth being defensive until market conditions improve.

So far this week, we’ve seen distribution days in the Nasdaq Composite on Monday and Tuesday. The big institutions are clearly selling stocks, especially tech stocks, and I don’t want members to get in the way of that right now. Please stay defensive! By defensive, I mean using lighter than normal positions, getting strong entry points, only exposing yourself to the strongest stocks, and cutting losses when wrong. I also think it’s worth keeping some cash on hand for when market conditions improve. I will leave it up to you to decide how much cash to hold based on your overall investment objectives. Again, the main goal of this product is to encourage you to make decisions and build a plan on your own. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be Monday, April 18th at 7:30PM EST. The link to the webinar is included in the email that was sent notifying you about the early video this week. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity
4/12/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) the July $443/$465 call spread being bought 2000X4000 for $5 net debit
4/12/22 Mosaic (MOS) seeing 3000 April 29th (W) $80 calls bought from $2.30 to $2.60
4/12/22 Bunge (BG) buyers of the November $135 calls for $6.50 to open today, over 775X
4/12/22 Patterson (PTEN) with the May $17/$19 call spread opening 3000X as some bullish spreads adjust higher
4/12/22 Apache (APA) buyers of the May 6th (W) $43 calls from $2.30 to $2.44, over 2000X
4/12/22 Nvidia (NVDA) with over 5000 April 29th (W) $230 calls bought today for $8.50 to $8.65
4/12/22 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 1300 August $95 puts being sold to open today for $10.80
4/12/22 Apple (AAPL) the May 13th (W) $170 calls being sold to open early from $4.85 down to $4.70, over 12,000X
4/12/22 Glaukos (GKOS) buyer of 2,500 May $62.50 calls for $3.90 and spread with the $57.50 puts sold 1250X for $2.32
4/11/22 Broadcom (AVGO) with 400 January 2024 $440 puts sold to open for $39.50
4/11/22 Applied Materials (AMAT) with 800 September $105 ITM calls bought for $20.65
4/11/22 Pure Storage (PSTG) with buyers of the January $27 calls for $7.60 to $7.70, over 1925X
4/11/22 Twitter (TWTR) bullish flows including 9,350 May $50 calls bought $2.50 to $2.55 to open
4/11/22 Twitter (TWTR) also with 2000 August $46 calls bought near $6.40/$6.50
4/11/22 Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) with 2500 September $80 puts sold to open for $2.35
4/11/22 Peabody Energy (BTU) with 2000 each of the May $29 and $26 puts sold to open this morning
4/11/22 Cameco (CCJ) with 5000 May 6th (W) $29 puts sold to open for $1.66 to $1.62
4/11/22 CSX Corp (CSX) with 8000 June $30.83 puts sold to open for $0.60
4/11/22 Baker Hughes (BKR) with 1000 January 2024 $35 calls bought for $9.50
4/11/22 Schlumberger (SLB) buyers of 4,375 May 6th (W) $46 calls for $0.80/$0.85
4/11/22 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) buyer of 1,500 January $270 calls for $17.80