Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:45 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:50 Discussion on Investment Levels
4) 11:15 Stock Review – Semiconductors: NVDA, AMD, KLIC, MXL, ASML, SMH (ETF)
5) 16:30 Stock Review – Software: BILL, AFRM, AVLR, ZS, CRWD, NOW
6) 23:00 Stock Review – Medical Products: ALGN, SWAV, STAA, INMD, DXCM
7) 25:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: ALB, LTHM, CELH, ALNY, PERI, WING, FND, HZNP, ORMP
8) 28:50 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Coming into this week, I discussed how weeks prior to long holiday weekends tend to trend to the upside. So far, so good. This week has been strong and many stocks are working out well so far. In fact, Monday was a stronger day than I expected and I held a special webinar to remind members that if we get extended later this week, it might be a good opportunity to lighten up your exposure (if that strategy fits your timeframe). I came into the week fully invested and reduced to 70% so far this week. If we continue to trend higher into the weekend, I will likely reduce even further.
Why do I reduce? Because even during strong uptrends, the Nasdaq Composite has normal pullbacks to its 21-day moving average, especially when it gets extended technically. When we get those inevitable pullbacks, I try my best to reduce the downside volatility, and I also want to have cash to put to work in stocks that pullback to logical support levels (i.e. 21-day and 50-day). I am still bullish into year-end, but also expecting volatility during the traditionally difficult month of September. This is where knowing your timeframe is so important.
As always, make decisions based on your own timeframe. Don’t feel the need to copy anyone or over-trade if that doesn’t fit your style. I do my best to give members a good blueprint and many guidelines, but ultimately, I encourage members to develop a style that fits their personality and investment objectives. The more you define yourself, the more you will develop confidence in your abilities. Good luck for the remainder of the week and enjoy the long holiday weekend!
Unusual Option Activity
9/1/21 Tesla (TSLA) size buyers in November $700 calls early trading 3350X near $82.10
9/1/21 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) IV getting juiced again with 10,000 of the September $110 calls bought up to $4
9/1/21 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) now with 10,000 September $115 calls bought up to $2.90 as IV move higher again
9/1/21 DexCom (DXCM) seeing spreads sell the December $470 puts to buy the $560/$660 call spread 600X for a net $10.50
9/1/21 Netflix (NFLX) 1000 Jan $440 puts sell $5.90 bid
9/1/21 Cloudflare (NET) 1100 January $145 calls being bought $8.37 to $8.93 today while around 850 November $145 calls being sold
9/1/21 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) some large opening put sales today with 5000 Sep. 30th (Q) $385 puts for $4.1M and 4000 June $335 puts for $5.9M
9/1/21 Nvidia (NVDA) 700 Jan 2023 $215/$170 bull put spreads opened
9/1/21 Micron (MU) with 1,500 June 2023 $70/$55 bull put spreads opening for $6.40
9/1/21 DocuSign (DOCU) buyer of 750 November $330 calls for $11.30 to $11.35
8/31/21 Apple (AAPL) more than 3,850 March $115 puts sold to open for $2.19 to $2.16 today
8/31/21 Anaplan (PLAN) buyer 3800 November $60/$70 call spreads for $3.50 and sold 2500 of the $42.50 puts for $0.45 into earnings
8/31/21 Bill.com (BILL) aggressive offer sweeps 2000 October $290 calls $12.40
8/31/21 Bill.com (BILL) also seeing over 4000 October $280 calls bought today for $18.70
8/31/21 Snowflake (SNOW) with 700 January 2023 $250 puts sold to open today down to $39.70, over $3M
8/31/21 Square (SQ) another roll of 11,000 September $200 calls to January $240 calls
8/31/21 ASML (ASML) with 175 January 2023 $800 puts sold to open for $107, these sizable put sales been popular in it for a while now
8/31/21 ASML (ASML) also with 175 January $820 puts sold to open for $55
8/31/21 Nvidia (NVDA) with 2000 November $240 calls bought $9.15 to $9.40
8/31/21 Twilio (TWLO) with the June 2022 $310 ITM calls bought today for $82.75 to $82.90, over $2M
8/31/21 Okta (OKTA) with 750 October $260 puts sold to open today down to $12.55
8/31/21 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) with 2,000 September $85 puts sold to open this morning for $4.60
8/31/21 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) also 500 October $85 puts sold to open $6.10 bids
8/31/21 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) also with 13,500 Sep. $100 calls being bought $4.30 to $5.80
8/31/21 Upstart Holdings (UPST) large trade opens 2000 January 2023 $240/$320 call spreads for $21.50
8/31/21 DataDog (DDOG) with 700 April $140 puts sold to open for $19.90
8/31/21 Taiwan Semi (TSM) ITM December $110 calls being bought 1300X at $12.40+
8/31/21 Nike (NKE) with over 3,650 October $175 calls being bought today for $2.85
8/31/21 Tesla (TSLA) spread sold 1000 Nov $730/$630 put spreads and bought 1000 Nov $700 calls against the sale of 1000 October $820 calls
8/30/21 Apple (AAPL) buyers 2500 September 2023 $175 calls for $4.5M
8/30/21 Facebook (FB) buyers of 1,000 June 2023 $400 calls for $56.70 to $57
8/30/21 Square (SQ) with 10,000 January $240 calls bought today for $45.13 as the Sept. $200 calls bought on 5/24 adjust out
8/30/21 Snap (SNAP) buyers of 2000 January 2023 $110 calls for $8.10 to $8.30 to open today
8/30/21 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 6000 October $457 calls being bought to open, also 2450 November $458 calls bought $8.60
8/30/21 Bill.com (BILL) seeing the October $190 puts sold for $1.69, over 1350X for $1.59 and spread with the $330 calls bought 485X for $5.57
8/30/21 Bill.com (BILL) also with 200 January 2023 $210 puts sold to open for $31.70
8/30/21 Affirm (AFRM) seeing 1000 January $150 calls with 1000X trading, mostly $15.60 offer buys
8/30/21 Amazon (AMZN) Sept 24th (W) $3500/$3600/$3700 call fly trading 2000X4000 to open, saw similar strategy active when NFLX was bottoming
8/30/21 Workday (WDAY) with 5,000 Dec $230 puts sold to open this afternoon for $4.50, follows the Sept. $250 short puts last week that opened 6000X
8/30/21 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 1000 September $228.75 calls for $7.20 into new highs
8/30/21 Nvidia (NVDA) with 3500 January $210 puts being sold to open $14.10 as the $180 short puts adjust
8/30/21 Tesla (TSLA) with buyers active in March 2023 $880 calls 2000X
8/30/21 Tesla (TSLA) also a large spread sold 10,000 Nov $720/$620 put spreads and bought 10,000 November $680 calls while selling 10k Oct $810 calls
8/27/21 Facebook (FB) buyer of 1,000 November $380 calls for $16.65
8/27/21 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with 4,140 January 2023 $290/$350 call spreads bought for $2.96