Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000
3) 8:50 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, TSM, TSLA, LLY, RKLB, ASTS, NTRA, XBI (ETF)
4) 11:35 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: SHLD (ETF), XAR (ETF), UFO (ETF), PL, ATRO, WWD, HWM, HXL, GE, RTX, FTAI, KRMN, SATS, RDW, LUNR, BKSY, FLY, KTOS, AVAV
5) 16:05 Stock Review – Semiconductors and Data Storage: SMH (ETF), AVGO, TSEM, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, MTSI, MU, TER, AEIS, SMTC, STX, WDC, SNDK
6) 18:20 Stock Review – Electronic Related: LITE, COHR, JBL, FN, CLS, TTMI, APH, VICR, FEIM
7) 20:10 Stock Review – Energy/Data Center related: VRT, GEV, ORA, ROK, ATI, WLDN, CIEN, BE, POWL
8) 21:30 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical: XBI (ETF), IBB (ETF), AZN, INCY, IMVT, GPCR, APGE, ARWR, VERA, CYTK, EWTX, CSTL, TCMD, CELC, AXGN, CBLL, QNCX, GRAL, GH, WGS
9) 29:30 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: PLTR, CRWD, DVN, NEM, RDDT, HOOD, SOFI, GOOGL, SPHR, REMX (ETF)
10) 31:30 Stocks Near Buyable Ranges: INCY, GH, GRAL, LLY
11) 34:35 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
REMINDER: THE NEXT WEEKEND VIDEO WILL BE POSTED ON SUNDAY, JANUARY 18th BY 6PM EST. THE US MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY FOR THE MLK JR. HOLIDAY.
The theme in many recent videos has been “keep it simple” because the major indexes are in uptrends, they are all above their 50-day moving averages, there’s little distribution, stocks are acting well, and the upcoming seasonality is favorable. However, over the past two days, there has been some distribution in the Nasdaq Composite. So, what should one do? I’m doing my best to stick to the strongest stocks, but I am definitely keeping my guard up in case we see more distribution. I’m still not expecting any meaningful correction until later this year, but as always, I will take this one day at a time.
I’m going to continue to shut out the noise, keep things simple, and stick to my main guidelines during power trends: 1) Use the 21-day as your guide. In other words, if we are extended from this level, don’t be surprised to see minor pullbacks through price and/or through time. 2) Expose yourself to strong stocks and ETFs. Between the Focus List and the other stocks, there are plenty of ideas in these videos. 3) Get strong entry points near the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. 4) Manage your trades as best as possible based on your timeframe, risk tolerance, and overall investment plan. I can give guidelines, but ultimately, you need to decide what position sizes to use, the number of positions to own, when to take profits, and where to set your stop losses. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
REMINDER: THE NEXT WEEKEND VIDEO WILL BE POSTED ON SUNDAY, JANUARY 18th BY 6PM EST. THE US MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY FOR THE MLK JR. HOLIDAY.
Unusual Options Activity:
1/14/26 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyer of over 15,000 Jan 23rd $695 calls at $3.38
1/14/26 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 2000 Feb 27th $574/568 bull put spreads sold to open
1/14/26 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)also buyers of 1150 Feb $622 calls at $15.06
1/14/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 3000 April $280 calls for $4.00
1/14/26 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) opening sale 1000 August $370 puts $30.70
1/14/26 China ETF (FXI) 2000 Sept $40 short puts opening $3
1/14/26 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) buyer 5000 Feb 6th (W) $57 calls for 1.60
1/14/26 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) also 70,000 May $63 calls bought, adjusting $62 strike
1/14/26 Gold ETF (GLD) buyers active 8000 Jan 23rd (W) $426 calls
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) 3000 March $79 puts sold to open 7.70 bids
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) block 5500 March $75 puts sold to open $5.88
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) buyers of over 30,000 Jan 23rd $82 calls at $4.66 to $5
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) also 13K of the $84 calls buying $4.01
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) buyers of 1500 Sept $87 calls at $15.05 offers
1/14/26 Silver ETF (SLV) also seeing buyers for 2000 Sept $160 max strike calls at $4.55 offers
1/14/26 Uranium ETF (URA) 4000 Jan 2027 $45 calls bought today $14 to $16
1/14/26 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 1000 August $400 calls for $9.4M as June $380 adjust
1/14/26 Tesla (TSLA) opening sale of 200 Nov $370 puts at $43.00
1/14/26 Netflix (NFLX) Dec $100/$120 call ratios bought 2000X4000
1/14/26 Shopify (SHOP) 6744 Feb 27th (W) $120 short puts open 1.01
1/14/26 On Holding (ONON) 800 March 45 calls buy 4.19
1/14/26 JP Morgan (JPM) 10,000 April $275 short puts open 4.90
1/14/26 JP Morgan (JPM) also 500 August $270 short puts open $9
1/14/26 Wells Fargo (WFC) 2000 Sept $100/$80 bull risk reversals open at some net credits
1/14/26 Robinhood (HOOD) 2000 April $130 calls buying $9.75 to $10.35
1/14/26 Applied Digital (APLD) buyer of 2000 Jan 30th $35.50 calls at $2
1/14/26 Chevron (CVX) opening sale 1400 Sept $160 puts at $9.66 as June adjust
1/14/26 Chevron (CVX) buyers of 450 April $180 calls for $3.15
1/14/26 Devon Energy (DVN) Feb 40 calls with 3500X bought, big April calls bought yesterday
1/14/26 Devon Energy (DVN) also seeing 4500 upside June $45 calls bought $1.29 offer and higher
1/14/26 Devon Energy (DVN) opening sale 900 July $37.5 puts 3.40
1/14/26 Occidental Petro (OXY) 1000 August $45 calls bought at $4 to $4.15
1/14/26 Schlumberger (SLB) buyers of 1250 July $52.50 calls at $2.70 offer
1/14/26 NRG Energy (NRG) buyer 500 March 165/195 call spreads
1/14/26 Archer Daniels (ADM) 1250 March $70 calls buy 1.30 offer
1/14/26 Freeport (FCX) opening sales 1500 March $60 puts at 3.95
1/14/26 Honeywell (HON) buyer 300 Jan 2027 $230 calls $15
1/14/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 1000 Feb 80 puts sold to open for 6.10
1/14/26 BlackSKy Tech (BKSY) buyer 1000 May $45 way OTM calls 2.40 offer
1/14/26 EchoStar (SATS) stock replacement sells to open 3000 June $100 puts at $7.23 to buy 1500 June $160 calls at $12.36
1/14/26 EchoStar (SATS) buyer 300 Jan 2028 $140 calls $44.30, 500 of the $150 calls $40.30 and 500 of the $150 puts sold to open $52
1/14/26 Cardinal Health (CAH) opening seller of 1200 June $180 puts at $4.60
1/14/26 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1500 March $210 puts sell to open $4.66
1/14/26 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1470 Feb $465 short puts open 3.89
1/14/26 Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) buyer of 2800 Jan 2027 $30 calls at $8.65
1/14/26 CG Oncology (CGON) unusual 450 July $55 calls buying up to $13.60
1/14/26 Immunovant (IMVT) buyer 1000 Dec $30 calls $6.89 to $7.10
1/14/26 Terns Pharma (TERN) 500 March 40 calls buy 3.90
1/14/26 Vertiv (VRT) 500 May 135 short puts open 8.35
1/14/26 Apple (AAPL) buyer 1800 Jan 2028 $350 calls for $16.65
1/14/26 Google (GOOGL) 3000 Feb 6th (W) $350 calls buying $6.85 to $7, captures earnings week
1/14/26 Google 2X ETF (GGLL) 3000 April $85.15 short puts open $4.80
1/14/26 Crowdstrike (CRWD) buyers of 600 April $520 calls at $17.40 to $18.20
1/14/26 Cloudflare (NET) 1250 August $175/$145 bull put spreads trading
1/14/26 Palantir (PLTR) 1400 Nov 110 short puts open 8.75
1/14/26 Astera Labs (ALAB) buyers of 600 Feb 27th $170 calls at $23.25 to $23.50
1/14/26 Advanced Micro (AMD) 600 Sept 2027 $250 ITM puts sell to open $70.20
1/14/26 Intel (INTC) 34,000 March $60 calls buy at $2.26 as $55 calls adjust
1/14/26 Intel (INTC) 1050 Dec 2027 $45/$70 call spreads bought
1/14/26 Broadcom (AVGO) opening sale of 10,000 March $240 puts at $2.50
1/14/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) massive opening seller of Feb $330 puts 20,000X at $16.55
1/14/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) another large put sale as 2000 Feb 6th (W) $325 sell to open 11.64
1/14/26 Synaptics (SYNA) buyers of 1600 June $100 calls at $10.50 to $11.20
1/14/26 Synaptics (SYNA) also 1000 Feb $90 calls bought at $5.80 to $6.10
1/14/26 Marvell Tech (MRVL) 1500 Dec $67.50 puts sell to open $9.04
1/13/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 2000 Feb 13th (W) $256 short puts opening 3.57
1/13/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer 2500 August $270 calls $15.23
1/13/26 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) buyer 3000 Feb $415/$455 call spreads for $5.50
1/13/26 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) also an opening sale 1000 August $415 puts for $49.35
1/13/26 Retail ETF (XRT) 3750 March 87 short puts open 2.35
1/13/26 Housing ETF (ITB) buyer 1600 July 120/130 call spreads
1/13/26 Gold ETF (GLD) buyers of 8000 Jan 23rd $420 calls at $9 to $10.10
1/13/26 Gold ETF (GLD) buyer of 4500 May $415 ITM calls at $28 to $28.65
1/13/26 Silver ETF (SLV) similar to GLD seeing buyers of 22,000 Jan 23rd $78 calls at $4.80 to $5
1/13/26 Silver ETF (SLV) opening sale of 2000 June $62 puts for $3.40 bid
1/13/26 Silver ETF (SLV) buyers of 4000 May $89 calls at $8.60 to $8.70 in large lots
1/13/26 Silver ETF (SLV) also over 8000 May $90 calls buying at $8.10 to $8.16
1/13/26 Silver ETF (SLV) SLV also 10,000 May $95 calls bought at $7.30 to $7.50
1/13/26 Netflix (NFLX) 1500 July $85 puts sold to open 6.79
1/13/26 Walmart (WMT) 2500 May $110 puts with sellers
1/13/26 Nike (NKE) 3500 Dec 2027 $55 short puts open $6.67
1/13/26 On Holding (ONON) 1350 Jan 2027 $37.5 short puts opening 3.60
1/13/26 Lyft (LYFT) 1250 Dec 2026 $18 short puts opening $3.25
1/13/26 JP Morgan (JPM) 625 April $275 short puts opening 3.52
1/13/26 Sunoco (SUN) buyer 1000 June $60 calls at $1.30
1/13/26 Cheniere Energy (LNG) Feb 27th (W) $175 short puts opening $1.62 for 4500 contracts
1/13/26 Constellation Energy (CEG) 250 May $330 short puts open $32 to $31.9
1/13/26 Blackrock (BLK) 1000 March $970 short puts open 11.64
1/13/26 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) sellers 2000 Feb 210 puts 4.20
1/13/26 Danaher (DHR) opening sales of 4325 Feb 13th $215 low delta puts for $1.45
1/13/26 Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) 1150 April $80 calls and 775 April $85 calls bought to open, over $2M
1/13/26 Vera Therapeutics (VERA) 2720 March $50 calls bought for $2M
1/13/26 Quince Therapeutics (QNCX) March $7.50 call buyers back 4340X at 0.74 for Phase 3 data
1/13/26 Devon Energy (DVN) buyers of 18,000 April $40 calls at $1.40 to $1.50
1/13/26 Bloom Energy (BE) 2000 Jan 23rd (W) $150 calls bought 7.70 to 8.15
1/13/26 Bloom Energy (BE) 550 July $60 short puts open 5.20
1/13/26 Newmont (NEM) buyer of 800 Feb 27th $85 ITM calls at $31.09 as Jan calls adjust
1/13/26 Freeport (FCX) buyer 30,000 March 65/75 call spreads for $1.75
1/13/26 Albemarle (ALB) more bull flow as 1200 Sept $150 puts sold to open $19.85
1/13/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 1400 Jan 30th (W) 88 short puts open 6.35 to 6.30
1/13/26 Planet Labs (PL) opening sales of 2000 July $27 ITM puts at $6.80
1/13/26 FTAI Aviation (FTAI) 300 Sept $310 calls buy for $30.20
1/13/26 Boeing (BA) massive buyers of 3200 Jan 2027 $320 calls at $12.50 to $12.85
1/13/26 EchoStar (SATS) 3000 Sept $70 short puts open 2.90
1/13/26 Google (GOOGL) 1200 July $300 puts sold to open 15.90
1/13/26 Google (GOOG) massive opening sales 10,000 Feb 27th (W) $340 ITM puts $14.60 to $14.30
1/13/26 Apple (AAPL) over 4000 Dec $270 calls buy for $25.10+
1/13/26 Apple (AAPL) 2000 March $235 short puts trade near $3
1/13/26 Meta (META) opening sale of 5000 Jan 30th $575 puts at $2.08
1/13/26 Intel (INTC) 2500 Sept $45 puts sell to open $7.15
1/13/26 Intel (INTC) also opening sale 1100 April $47 puts $5.35
1/13/26 Nvidia (NVDA) 2000 Nov $140 puts sold to open $9.40
1/13/26 Nvidia (NVDA) 500 Nov $185 puts sold to open 27.15
1/13/26 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 2700 Dec 2028 $185 calls at $63.80 to $64 as some Dec 2027 calls adjust
1/13/26 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 1500 Nov $180 ITM calls for $36.35 in a single block for $5M
1/13/26 Nvidia (NVDA) large opening sales of 11,000 Feb 13th $180 puts at $5.45 to $5.35 bids, over $6M in premium sold
1/13/26 Micron (MU) July $600 calls with 1500X bought $15.25 average price
1/13/26 Micron (MU) buyer of 400 July $420 calls at $41.80
1/13/26 Lattice Semi (LSCC) 500 March 100 calls bought
1/13/26 TTM Tech (TTMI) 3000 Feb $65 short puts opening
1/13/26 Global Foundries (GFS) with 15,000 April $45 calls bought $2.25
1/13/26 Credo Tech (CRDO) 4000 Feb $180 calls buy at $10.85 as the 2600x Feb $160 calls adjust
1/13/26 Celestica (CLS) 1200 Feb $330 calls bought $1.5M as lower strike calls adjust up
1/13/26 Sanmina (SANM) buyers of 1500 Feb $175 calls at $12 offers as lower strike calls adjust up
1/13/26 Teradyne (TER) opening sale 200 May 230 ITM puts for 31.30
1/13/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 550 Sept $330 short puts opening $39.20
1/13/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) 1000 April $330 short puts trade $24.70 to open
1/12/26 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 2000 June $680 calls at $13.58 as Dec $700 calls adjust
1/12/26 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) 1000 June $405 calls bought at $30.59
1/12/26 Biotech ETF (IBB) buyers of 2250 Feb $180 calls at $1.75 to $1.85
1/12/26 Energy ETF (XLE) large buy of 10,000 Sept $45.50 ITM calls for $4.05
1/12/26 Metals ETF (XME) buyer 1000 March $125/$135 call spreads
1/12/26 Gold ETF (GLD) buyer of 4000 April $435 calls at $16.85 offer
1/12/26 Gold ETF (GLD) 5000 June $550 calls bought $3.49 as some March $500 adjust
1/12/26 Gold ETF (GLD) 10,000 March $429/$440 call spreads bought as Feb 415/426 adjust
1/12/26 Silver ETF (SLV) opening seller 1300 Jan 2027 $80 puts $16.54
1/12/26 Silver ETF (SLV) also buyers of 2400 April $79 calls at $8.85 to $9.05
1/12/26 Shopify (SHOP) 300 Jan 2028 $100 short puts open $13.10
1/12/26 Home Depot (HD) 2700 Feb 26th (W) $345 short puts open $3.88
1/12/26 Netflix (NFLX) size buyer 1550 ITM August $80 calls $17.20+ for $2.65M
1/12/26 Wells Fargo (WFC) 5000 Jan 92 puts sell to open 1.28
1/12/26 AmEx (AXP) opening sales of 2600 Feb $340 puts at $7.40 to $7.25
1/12/26 Robinhood (HOOD) buyers of Feb 27th (W) $116 calls 3650X for $4M
1/12/26 SoFi (SOFI) buyer of 5000 June 2028 $20 deep ITM calls for $13.85 to $14.05 for over $7M
1/12/26 Visa (V) buyer 150 Dec 2028 $340 calls $70.10
1/12/26 Cytokinetics (CYTK) 5000 May $70 calls bought $13.18 as April $75 adjust
1/12/26 Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) spread sold 100 Feb $330 puts to buy 100 $380/$420 call spreads
1/12/26 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) 2000 Jan 2027 $55/$52.50 bull put spreads sell to open
1/12/26 Quince Therapeutics (QNCX) odd opening sales of 1100 March $7.50 ITM puts for $5.30
1/12/26 Abivax ADR (ABVX) 200 March $120 short puts trade for $21
1/12/26 Huntington Ingalls (HII) 400 June $400 calls bought $1.55M
1/12/26 Astronics (ATRO) unusual buy 900 Feb $70 calls $3.75
1/12/26 Bloom Energy (BE) buyers of 2000 June $140/$150 call spreads
1/12/26 EQT (EQT) opening sale of 12,900 Feb $47.50 puts at $0.96 as Jan 23rd $51 short puts adjust
1/12/26 Powell Industries (POWL) 1085 Dec 2026 $390 calls bought for over $10M as May $330 adjust
1/12/26 Amprius Tech (AMPX) 7000 Feb $12 calls buying 0.57 to 0.60
1/12/26 Albemarle (ALB) 480 June $185 calls bought $950K
1/12/26 Albemarle (ALB) 800 Sept $240 far OTM calls bought for $14.40
1/12/26 Applied Digital (APLD) 1200 March $32 puts sold to open $3.15 to $3
1/12/26 Alibaba (BABA) 3500 June $175/$220 call spreads bought $10.80
1/12/26 Palantir (PLTR) buyer 2000 Feb 6th (W) $190 calls near $8
1/12/26 CoreWeave (CRWV) large buyer into the close for 5000 March $70 ITM calls at $27.30
1/12/26 Google (GOOGL) 3000 Sept 190 short puts 1.95
1/12/26 Google (GOOG) 1000 Jan 2027 $310 puts sold to open $30.90 to $30.85
1/12/26 Nebius Group (NBIS) 1400 Feb $105 calls bought at $12.10 as Jan $85 calls adjust
1/12/26 Microsoft (MSFT) spread bought 500 July $550 calls $13.21 and sold 1000 of the $420 puts at $12.13
1/12/26 Vertiv (VRT) opening seller 1000 April $125 puts at $4.77
1/12/26 Coherent (COHR) size buys 2600 Sept $250 calls for over $6.5M
1/12/26 Amazon (AMZN) 25,000 March $220 calls bought as Feb 210 adjust
1/12/26 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 900 July $305 calls at $7.10 as some $300 calls adjust
1/12/26 Meta (META) 1500 June $655 calls buying earlier at $61 to $63.50
1/12/26 ASML (ASML) opening sales of 2000 Jan $1255 puts $19.40
1/12/26 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 4000 April $150 ITM calls at $41 to $41.50 as Jan calls adjust
1/12/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) opening seller of 5000 Feb 13th $320 puts at $11.98
1/12/26 TTM Tech (TTMI) unusual large trade as 1500 June $95 calls buy $9
1/12/26 Micron (MU) buyer of 600 August $260 ITM calls at $118.15 for $7M
1/12/26 Apple (AAPL) 2700 June 2027 $260 puts sold at $27.30 to $27.05 for $7M
1/12/26 EchoStar (SATS) buyers of 1300 March $140/$170 call spreads at $5.40
1/12/26 Tesla (TSLA) massive adjustment sells 8000 Dec 2028 $520 ITM puts for $182.82, as the Jan 2028 $450 short puts adjust from November
Quince Therapeutics (QNCX) is a tiny name that saw unusual options activity on 1/12 as buyers of 3350 March $7.50 calls in the afternoon sparked a surge higher in shares but the most notable activity was opening sales of 6000 March $7.50 puts to open at $5.30, willing owners of 600,000 QNCX shares at $2.20/share but optimally expects QNCX shares to triple and close above $7.50 in March. QNCX for a small cap biotech has a tiny short float at 3.7%.
Quince focuses on acquiring and developing therapies for debilitating, mostly rare diseases, now centered on EryDex for ataxia‑telangiectasia (A‑T), a rare pediatric neurodegenerative and immunodeficiency disorder caused by ATM mutations. EryDex uses Quince’s AIDE platform, a drug/device combination that loads dexamethasone sodium phosphate into a patient’s own red blood cells ex vivo and then reinfuses them, aiming for sustained, targeted steroid delivery with fewer systemic side effects. The platform consists of an automated device (RCL), a single‑use treatment kit, and process solutions, and in principle can be adapted to other drugs and indications, though EryDex in A‑T is the only late‑stage asset. The company was previously Cortexyme and pivoted to rare disease and the AIDE/EryDex franchise after earlier setbacks. The AIDE technology works by drawing a small volume of blood (approximately 1% of circulating blood volume), processing it through a 17-step automated process over 90 minutes to make red blood cells porous, loading them with dexamethasone, and then shrinking the cells to trap the drug inside.
Ataxia-telangiectasia is an autosomal recessive genetic disease that manifests around ages 2-4 with rapid neurological decline, leading to wheelchair dependence by ages 10-12, immunosuppression, cancer development, and typical lifespan into the 20s. Currently, there is no approved drug for ataxia-telangiectasia, and standard of care consists only of supportive therapies such as occupational therapy, physical therapy, and treatment of secondary infections and cancers. The addressable market for ataxia-telangiectasia consists of approximately 5,000 patients in the United States and a similar number in the Big Five European countries. Payer research conducted with 10 different payers covering 200 million lives supports a pricing range of $600,000 to $700,000 per year. Patients are expected to remain on therapy chronically, if not for their entire lifetime, creating a multibillion-dollar category. The payer mix is expected to be approximately 70% commercial insurance and 30% Medicaid, with minimal discounts and rebates expected.
QNCX has a market cap of just $165M and trades 6.25X Cash. The value‑defining program is the NEAT Phase 3 trial of EryDex in A‑T, a randomized, double‑blind, placebo‑controlled study under an FDA Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) with Fast Track designation and orphan status, designed to support registration if positive. Enrollment is complete with 105 total participants, including 83 six‑to‑nine‑year‑olds in the primary analysis population. The independent DSMB/iDSMB has recommended the trial continue without modification, and 100% of participants elected to enter the open‑label extension, suggesting acceptable tolerability and perceived benefit. Quince expects topline NEAT results in Q1 2026, with a potential NDA filing thereafter if data are supportive. At its 2025 Investor Day, management laid out a regulatory path that, assuming a positive NEAT readout, would target U.S. approval around 2027 with parallel interactions with EMA (including a pediatric investigational plan and a required PED study) based on the same core dataset. Management guides to a cash runway into Q2 2026, potentially extending into the second half of 2026 if outstanding warrants are exercised. This means the company is funded through the Phase 3 topline readout, but likely not through full NDA review and launch, implying a need for additional capital, a partnership, or strategic transaction if NEAT is positive. Given its size and single‑asset focus, many observers view Quince as a natural candidate for future partnership or acquisition if NEAT is strongly positive, particularly by a rare‑disease–focused pharma that can underwrite global commercialization. Management estimates a less than 20% probability of failure for the Phase 3 trial, compared to typical Phase 3 failure rates of approximately 35% across all therapeutic areas. The company plans to raise approximately $100 million within 48 hours of positive data announcement to fund the NDA filing and approval process. Option Care, a network with 180 sites across the United States, has agreed to place Quince’s machines at their clinics to deliver the drug in an outpatient setting similar to dialysis centers.
Management has identified 12 additional rare disease indications for the AIDE technology focused on neurology, neuromuscular, autoimmune, and rheumatology areas. Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is identified as the second priority indication after ataxia-telangiectasia based on discussions with 30 key opinion leaders and DMD principal investigators. The company is developing a betamethasone formulation for non-rare diseases including lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and ulcerative colitis, where pricing will need to be lower than the rare disease pricing model.
Citizens says eDSP offers a blockbuster opportunity with limited competition and has an $8 target on QNCX. Lucid Capital also believes the company’s EryDex is set to become a blockbuster treatment in the lead ataxia-telangiectasia indication alone. OpCo sees a $1B-plus global opportunity for Quince’s lead candidate EryDex and projects $200M in 2031 U.S. sales. and sees high odds of success with the design heavily derisked.