Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:00 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, DELL, WING, NVO, LLY, VRT
4) 7:20 Stock Review – Software and Semiconductors: IGV (ETF), APP, DDOG, SMH (ETF), MU
5) 8:25 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Products: XBI (ETF), CYTK, VKTX, CRNX, MRUS, NTRA, TMDX, RXST, PRCT
6) 11:50 Stock Review – Restaurants: CMG, CAVA, SG, SHAK, TXRH, DPZ, FWRG
7) 13:00 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: GOOGL, AVAV, LDOS, VST, CEG, NRG, SMCI
8) 14:40 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
Two weeks ago, the major indexes broke below their 50-day moving averages. Following that, I discussed getting defensive. For me, that doesn’t necessarily mean move to 100% cash, but to meet halfway. In other words, keep exposure to some of the stronger relative strength stocks, keep some cash, use smaller than normal positions for new buys, and stick to a loss cutting discipline when a position turns against you. The reasons I don’t want to get too negative include: 1) There are still many growth stocks acting well, and I review them in this video. 2) The precedent I discussed in the 2024 Preview Videos of not expecting any major declines this year. 3) An election year when an incumbent is running for reelection tends to be positive.

From here, I would still like to see a follow through day (FTD) and see the major indexes get back above their 50-days. We were on pace for one today, but the selling in the last hour turned the markets negative. We need a FTD so we can go from a “sell the rips” market back to “buying the dips.” Again, this will require patience. I’m open-minded that conditions could get worse and we could undercut the April 19th low. We could also chop around until we get better inflation data. Bottom line, rather than guess, let’s remain patient and disciplined until the market proves itself better. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity:
5/1/24 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening seller of 2900 Dec 2025 $349.78 puts at $13.85
5/1/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 4000 August $211 calls at $3.47 also sells the $190 puts at $5.29 in bull risk reversals
5/1/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also a buyer of 1100 August $190 ITM calls at $13.30
5/1/24 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 3000 June $168/$135 bull risk reversals open at $0.04 credit
5/1/24 Costco (COST) opening sale of 800 June $715 puts at $20.50 as the May 31st $720 puts adjust out
5/1/24 Target (TGT) 675 September $155 calls bought $13.75 to $13.80
5/1/24 TJX Cos (TJX) buyer of 200 Jan 2026 $80 calls at $23
5/1/24 Netflix (NFLX) with 850 June 7th $505 puts sell to open at $4.90
5/1/24 Uber (UBER) seeing 1250 May 31st (W) $68 calls bought $3.15
5/1/24 Home Depot (HD) 1500 Nov $270 puts sell to open $4.10
5/1/24 EQT (EQT) 1000 September $40 calls bought $2.67
5/1/24 Conoco (COP) 800 June 2025 $125 puts sell to open 13.40 to 13.15
5/1/24 Blackstone (BX) 1000 January 2026 $100 puts sell to open $9.55
5/1/24 Pfizer (PFE) 1275 Dec $25 puts sell to open $1.50
5/1/24 Leidos Holdings (LDOS) buyers of 1000 August $145 calls at $4.30 to $5.10
5/1/24 AeroVironment (AVAV) buyers of 675 July $170 calls up to $10.90, still has 2567 of the $180 calls in OI
5/1/24 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing opening sales 4950 Jan $470 calls down to $10.90
5/1/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 2500 July $160/$185 call spreads for $5.21
5/1/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) large trade opens 1500 August $165/$145 bull risk reversal for a credit of $2.89
5/1/24 Dell (DELL) opening sellers of 4900 June $150 calls at $2.05 to 1.90
5/1/24 Dell (DELL) also seeing 1000 May 31st $114 puts sell to open $4.95
5/1/24 Camtek (CAMT) sees 335 August $80 calls buy at $9.00 as the June calls adjust
4/30/24 Target (TGT) large buy 2000 June $150 calls to open $14.48 as May adjust to capture 5-22 earnings
4/30/24 Shopify (SHOP) seeing size bull flow with 1700 Sept $70 calls buying $11.98 to $12.40 to open, reports 5-8
4/30/24 Cava Group (CAVA) buyers of 2300 May $80 calls at $1.70 offer
4/30/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) with 500 Dec $190 puts sell to open $15.30
4/30/24 Conoco (COP) opening sale 10,000 June $120 puts down to 2.09
4/30/24 Wells Fargo (WFC) large opening seller of 18500 January $67.50 ITM puts at $9.46
4/30/24 Novo Nordisk (NVO) with 1000 each January $160 and $165 calls sold to open
4/30/24 Leidos Holdings (LDOS) over 1000 June $140 calls buying for 2.20 to 2.40
4/30/24 Amazon (AMZN) seller of 1000 Dec 2025 $160 puts to open $16.16
4/30/24 Dell (DELL) opening sales of 300 June $135 ITM puts at $15.30 to $15.80
4/30/24 Micron (MU) with 2100 Sept $110/$105 bull put spreads sell to open for $2.00
4/30/24 Microsoft (MSFT) sees a massive opening sale of 10,000 Dec $400 puts at $27.10
4/30/24 Microsoft (MSFT) with 900 November $465 calls bought $10.05
4/30/24 Broadcom (AVGO) sale to open 1000 June $1530 calls $21 to $20.30
4/29/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) seeing a buyer of 6000 May 31st $203/$213 call spreads at $2.92
4/29/24 Costco (COST) 300 June 2025 $615 puts sell to open $21.40
4/29/24 On Holding (ONON) 2600 June $35 calls bought as May $35 adjust out a month
4/29/24 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) buyer 1000 May 10th (W) 97/101 call spreads
4/29/24 Chipotle (CMG) with 200 January $3000 puts bought to open for $3.35M
4/29/24 Marathon Petro (MPC) another large put sale with 500 Oct. $200 sold to open 14.20
4/29/24 Bristol Myers (BMY) buyers of 450 August $40 ITM calls at $6
4/29/24 Vertex Pharma (VRTX) opening sale 400 Sept $370 puts for 11.70, reports 5-6
4/29/24 Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) with 1280 May $145 calls bought into 5-1 earnings $2.40 to $2.60
4/29/24 Cameco (CCJ) seeing a block of 7500 Dec $55 calls bought at $5.61
4/29/24 Adobe (ADBE) with 500 August $480 puts sold to open $31.95 to $31.50
4/29/24 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 400 March 2025 $145 calls $48.50
4/29/24 Nvidia (NVDA) sees a large long term bull sell to open 400 Jan 2026 $760 puts at $125.30