Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:30 CONSTRUCTING A TRADE: UBER, META, CDNS, CYTK, DELL
4) 22:45 Other ideas around buy points to construct trades with: MEDP, MRUS, FROG, FWRG, ISRG, ACMR, SMCI, VKTX, AVGO
5) 28:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Here are the concepts I discussed in the two 2024 Preview Videos: 1) I am bullish over the next 6-12 months because of all the technical strength we saw from November through January. The institutions aggressively came back into the markets because of the new bull market powered by AI, and they are anticipating the Fed lowering rates this year. 2) Does that mean we will go straight up with no pullbacks? Of course not! That’s why I’ve also discussed the theme of “using the 21-day EMA as your guide.” 3) Stay focused on the best growth stocks/ETFs out there. 4) Get strong entry points and manage your trades based on your timeframe and overall investment plan. If you don’t have a plan, please continue to finetune it and work on one that fits your situation. 5) Manage risk and stick to your stops. Just because it’s a bull market doesn’t mean everything is going to work out.
As I’ve mentioned in recent videos, I’m trying to keep my analysis simple. The consolidation over the past week is normal price action. Over the near-term, we could see more consolidation, but I’m expecting any pullbacks to be shallow. If we do see some near-term weakness, I wouldn’t get too negative for the following reasons: 1) New money tends to flow into the markets at the beginning of the month and the quarter. 2) April is seasonally one of the strongest months of the year. 3) Earnings season is right around the corner. 4) New money could also flow into the market before the mid-April IRA contribution deadline. Bottom line: It’s a strong market, pullbacks have been shallow, stick with the trend, stick with the leaders, and do your best to manage your trades.
Speaking of constructing trades, I changed the format of this video because I already discussed the stocks on our focus and watch lists in Wednesday’s video, and there was only one day of trading since then. I hope you find this content helpful in guiding you how to think about a trade, and for constructing future trades. I want to wish a Happy Easter to those members who celebrate. I hope you have a wonderful long weekend with family and friends. It is also a great time to relax and take a few days off from the market. I’m grateful that I was able to guide members through a strong first quarter, and I look forward to providing continued strong content in the upcoming quarter.
Unusual Option Activity:
3/28/24 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing a massive buyer here for 50,000 Dec $470 puts at $8.46, over $42M, likely hedge
3/28/24 Energy ETF (XLE) with 10,000 Jan $88 puts sold to open at $3.96
3/28/24 2x Bitcoin ETF (BITX) unusual trade in this ETF sells to open 1000 April 26th $50 puts at $7.34
3/28/24 Tesla (TSLA) large buyer here for 30,000 May $175 calls at $15.30 as the $170 calls adjust
3/28/24 Nike (NKE) opening sales of 1000 Jan 2026 $100 puts at $14.55
3/28/24 Starbucks (SBUX) large buyer of 1388 June 2026 $90 calls at $18, over $2.4M
3/28/24 Uber (UBER) seeing 5700 May 10th $66 puts sell to open at $0.79, captures earnings 5/7
3/28/24 Marathon Petroleum (MPC) with 1000 May $200 calls buying at $6.95
3/28/24 Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) buyers of 2000 May $40 calls at $1.45 to $1.50 sweep offers
3/28/24 JP Morgan (JPM) large trade buys 34,000 June $210/$230 call spreads at $3.01 as the May spreads adjust
3/28/24 JP Morgan (JPM) opening seller of 1000 March 2025 $180 puts at $7.93
3/28/24 Citigroup (C) with 2500 Dec $70 calls bought at $3.24 as Jan $67.50 adjust
3/28/24 Citigroup (C) buyers of 1500 Dec $62.50 calls at $6.34 as more Jan calls adjust
3/28/24 Citigroup (C) with 875 March 2025 $67.50 calls buy at $5.15
3/28/24 Coinbase (COIN) buyers of 2300 April 12th $275 calls at $13.95 to $16.35
3/28/24 Cytokinetics (CYTK) with 700 June $75 puts sold to open at $13.64
3/28/24 Gilead Sciences (GILD) With 1200 Jan 2026 $75 calls buy at $9.20 as Jan 2025 calls adjust
3/28/24 Teck Resources (TECK) sees 2000 June $55 calls buy at $0.83
3/28/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer of 1500 June $155 calls at $8.75 to $9.05
3/28/24 Super Micro (SMCI) seeing a buyer of 325 May $1120 calls at $102.80 to $108.15
3/28/24 Astera Labs (ALAB) with 450 May $80 calls buy at $11.90 to $13, strong recent IPO
3/28/24 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyers of over 11k May $160/$180 call spreads at $1.22
3/28/24 JFrog (FROG) with 1900 May $45 calls buying $3.50 to $3.80
3/28/24 Meta (META) large buy of 5000 June 2026 $350 calls at $202.66 as the $370 calls adjust again
3/28/24 Meta (META) large opening sale of 4000 April 26th $470 puts at $17 to $17.50
3/28/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) seeing 1300 June 2025 $190 calls selling to open at $39.50
3/28/24 Microsoft (MSFT) seeing 1800 June $445 calls buying at $10.85
3/28/24 Apple (AAPL) seeing buyers of 1600 May 3rd $170 calls at $6.20, captures earnings 5/2
3/28/24 Amazon (AMZN) massive late day buyer of 5550 June 2026 $140 deep ITM calls at $65.80, over $36M
3/28/24 Snowflake (SNOW) seeing large buyers of over 5000 June $200 calls at $4.75 to $5
3/28/24 Micron (MU) opening sales of 1300 Jan $120 puts at $16.15
3/28/24 Disney (DIS) large buyer opens 33,000 May $130 calls at $3.05 as the April $120 calls adjust and also sells to open 16,500 May $110 puts at $1.11 in bull risk reversals. Original April 120 calls more than doubled since recent buyers