Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:40 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, NOW, UBER, LLY, NVO, VRTX, WING, PANW, CRWD
4) 9:55 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), CDNS, ADBE, CRM, DDOG, WDAY
5) 11:25 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, AVGO, LRCX, KLAC, AMD, MRVL, ARM
6) 12:55 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), ACAD, MGNX, VKTX, MRUS, KRYS
7) 14:45 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: META, NFLX, DELL, VRT, SMCI, DECK, CLS, FN, CAMT, ANET, RXST, ISRG, XHB (ETF), ITB (ETF)
8) 17:45 NEW STOCK IDEA: SNAP
9) 19:30 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
One of the reasons I posted the “2024 Preview Video – Part 2” was to highlight the theme of “strength usually leads to more strength.” In the first 2024 Preview Video, I discussed how the incredible strength from Nov and Dec usually leads to a higher market 6-12 months from now. In the second video, I discussed that a new high after two years also leads to above average returns over the next 12 months. Does this mean we will go straight up? OF COURSE NOT! That is why I also stress the theme of “use the 21-day as your guide.” When the Nasdaq Composite gets about 3-4% extended from its 21-day (as it is now), that is when we run into a higher probability of a pullback.
What should you do when this happens? There is no right or wrong answer. It depends on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. If you are a trader, you can take partial or full profits. If you have a longer-term timeframe, then sit tight during these normal pullbacks. Either way, getting strong entry points near the 21-day and 50-day moving averages can help you sit through normal volatility. Also, not having FOMO and not chasing things when they are extended helps. This is all part of having discipline, which you MUST develop and consistently work on. From here, if we get a pullback, I will look to put more money to work in many of the Focus List names. As always, I will take this day-by-day and update you in these videos. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar which will be this Monday, January 29th at 7PM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
1/24/24 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) buyer 2750 February $198 calls for $3.40 in adjustment higher
1/24/24 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) also large buy 5000 March 200/210 call spreads
1/24/24 Pepsi (PEP) with 1000 Feb 23rd $165 puts sell to open at $2.35 bids
1/24/24 Walmart (WMT) opening sale 1250 September $145 puts for $2.97
1/24/24 Spotify (SPOT) buyers of 1000 April $220 calls at $13.75 to $14.95, recent bull flows continue
1/24/24 WingStop (WING) unusual 2000 Feb 260/240 put spreads bought 1.20
1/24/24 Goldman Sachs (GS) with 300 Sept $430 calls sold to open 10.30
1/24/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) buyer 150 May $610 ITM calls at $63.75
1/24/24 Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI) buyer 600 April 60/40 put spreads for $5
1/24/24 Microsoft (MSFT) $11M call buy Dec 2026 $360 calls open 1000X
1/24/24 Meta (META) large buyer also for 1050 June 2026 $360 ITM calls at $116 to $119, similar to MSFT long term buys
1/24/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) 1500 next week $75 calls bought $3.15 offer, name with massive Jan 2026 call buys lately
1/24/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers of 5300 Feb 23rd $650 calls at $18.30 to $20, earnings 2/21
1/24/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 1000 April $580/$640 call spreads
1/24/24 Nvidia (NVDA) also large buyers of 2700 March 1st $670 calls for $16.20 offers up to $16.50
1/24/24 Amazon (AMZN) June 190/200 call spreads being bought nearly 20,000X
1/24/24 Amazon (AMZN) also buyer of 18,300 next week $165/$167.5 call spreads for $0.74
1/24/24 Applied Materials (AMAT) with 1000 April $190 calls bought $4.70 offer
1/24/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) with 800 July 220 puts selling to open $5.35
1/24/24 CrowdStrike (CRWD) also seeing sellers of 400 June $330 calls
1/24/24 Micron (MU) buyer 3000 April $92.5 calls $4.30 offer, recent upside April call spreads as well
1/24/24 Oracle (ORCL) buyer of 5500 March $120 calls $3.20 adjusting some March 110 and Feb 115 calls
1/24/24 Oracle (ORCL) 400 Jan 2026 $110 puts sell to open $12.50
1/24/24 Snap (SNAP) buyer 3000 February 19.50 calls 0.75
1/24/24 Dell (DELL) 500 January 2025 75 puts sell to open 6.05
1/24/24 Arista Networks (ANET) with 600 April $300 calls opening $7.75
1/23/24 Biotech ETF (XBI) large opening sale 2000 Jan 2025 $94 ITM puts for 12.70
1/23/24 Walmart (MWT) 8000 March 175 calls sold to open 0.69 to 0.66
1/23/24 Booking Holdings (BKNG) large buyer of 100 June 2025 $3360 ITM calls for $683.00
1/23/24 JP Morgan (JPM) seeing 10,000 each of the March $160 and April $155 puts sell to open
1/23/24 Zillow (Z) opening seller of 2500 Dec 2025 $70 calls at $9.28
1/23/24 Amgen (AMGN) seeing buyers of 1000 each of the Feb 2nd $310 and $312.50 calls
1/23/24 J&J (JNJ) trade opens 3000 February $162.5/$155 bull risk reversals for small credit
1/23/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers 2000 April $590 calls spreading against those $670 calls
1/23/24 Datadog (DDOG) more bull flow with 1790 Feb $125 puts selling to open 5.20 to 5.10
1/23/24 Synopsys (SNPS) 525 June $550 calls sell to open $2.25M premium with concerns after the big deal for ANSS
1/23/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer of 330 Jan 2025 $77.50 calls at $17.35 offers
1/23/24 Oracle (ORCL) opening sale 10,000 April 95 puts $1 to $0.98
1/23/24 Palantir (PLTR) opening sale 3000 February 16.50 puts for 0.90
1/23/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) with another 4000 March $75 calls bought up to $3.30 offers
1/23/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 1500 Jan 2025 $85 calls $7.75 offer as name sees massive bull flow for months now
1/23/24 Salesforce (CRM) with 400 Jan 2025 $320 ITM puts sell to open at $50.70 to $50.20
1/23/24 Snowflake (SNOW) with a massive buy 6000 April $180 calls $32.25 ITM
1/23/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) deep ITM June 2025 $220 puts sold to open $63
1/22/24 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer 5000 June $213 calls $4.19 offer also seeing big buys 10,000 Feb 9th (W) $197 calls
1/22/24 Energy ETF (XLE) 1500 December 2025 $72 puts sell to open 6.05
1/22/24 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 800 March 1st $205 puts sell to open $7.70 to $7.60
1/22/24 Skechers (SKX) buyer 1000 March 72.50 calls 0.85 offer
1/22/24 Sweetgreen (SG) with 5000 July 10 puts selling to open 1.30
1/22/24 Starbucks (SBUX) large buyers of 850 Jan 2026 $95 calls at $13.65 to $13.80
1/22/24 Shopify (SHOP) 750 July $90 calls bought
1/22/24 Citigroup (C) buyers of 3000 Jan 2026 $52.50 calls for $8.05 as Jan 2025 calls adjust out
1/22/24 Eli Lilly (LLY) buyers 1270 Feb 2nd (W) $645 calls $6.60, reports 2-6
1/22/24 Krystal Bio (KRYS) with 150 December $185 puts bought for $1M
1/22/24 Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) unusual buy 900 February $145 calls $2.70
1/22/24 Merck (MRK) with 3000 April $115 puts buy at $2.17
1/22/24 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) buyer of 2200 Feb $390 calls at $8 as the $365 calls adjust up
1/22/24 Vertiv Holdings (VRT) March $65/$50 bull risk reversals opening 2410X at $0.90 credit
1/22/24 Snowflake (SNOW) large buyers of over 9000 Feb 2nd $220 calls at $0.95 to $1.15
1/22/24 Google (GOOGL) with 1000 July $130 puts sold to open $3.35
1/22/24 Advanced Micro (AMD) March $190 calls with 4500X bought trading $2.5M premium
1/22/24 Arm Holdings (ARM) buyer 1000 Jan 2026 $80 calls $26.25 as long-dated size call buys continue in it
1/22/24 Snap (SNAP) buyers active 6500 March $18 calls
1/22/24 Snap (SNAP) also 5500 next week $18 calls bought
1/22/24 Dell (DELL) buyer 1500 March $90 calls $2.20 to $2.25
1/22/24 Palantir (PLTR) size buy 13,000 July $20 calls $2.45 offer sweep
1/22/24 Palantir (PLTR) also buyer 5000 July $21 calls $1.87 offer
1/22/24 Z-Scaler (ZS) buyer 400 March 1st (W) $240 calls $15
1/22/24 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 725 June 2025 $520 calls $15
1/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) 200 Nov $660 calls sell to open $70.55
1/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) massive opening sale 1600 April $600 puts for $43.81
1/22/24 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer 25,000 March $570 calls $56.73 as the $530 adjust higher again
1/22/24 Marvell Tech (MRVL) with 1000 Jan 2025 $80 calls buy at $7.49
1/22/24 Camtek (CAMT) spread 600X selling May $60 puts to buy $80/$90 call spreads