Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 6:50 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, MSFT, ADBE, NOW, UBER
4) 8:35 Stock Review – Big Pharma: NOV, LLY, VRTX
5) 9:45 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), SNPS, CDNS, PANW, CRWD, QLYS, ZS, CRM, AYX
6) 12:00 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), AVGO, KLAC, LRCX, AMD
7) 13:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: DELL, META, AMZN, NFLX, CLS, FN, VRT, WING, ANET, CAMT
8) 16:45 Stock Review – New Names for the Watch List: ABOS, Z, FWRG, CAVA
9) 19:55 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
We are in step 3 of the market steps I discussed in many recent videos. That step is a breakout to the upside of the late November consolidation. During this breakout, I mentioned a few points: 1) Use the 21-day EMA as your guide. 2) I’m not expecting any major downside over the near-term. 3) I am expecting continued strength (with normal pullbacks along the way) into mid-January. Regarding the 21-day, when we get extended from this level, I will leave it up to you to manage your trades. Statistically, extended is roughly 3%-4% above the 21-day. When this happens, a few options include: 1) Taking profits. 2) Taking partial profits. 3) Getting strong entry points and being ok with normal pullbacks along the way. I’ve been learning towards this third option, as I remain 80-90% invested and many of my stocks pulled back on light volume today.
I’m not complacent about today’s drop, I just don’t panic. In my view, this is normal price action within th3 overall uptrend. From here, it’s possible we can continue to pullback to the 10-day or 21-day, but I’m not expecting any major downside, especially as we head into the “Santa Claus Rally” which is defined as the last 5 days of December and the first 2 days of January. As always, stick to those three rules of strong stocks/ETFs, strong entry points, and manage your trades as best as possible based on your timeframe and overall investment objectives. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity:
12/20/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) seeing large opening sales of 16,000 January $478 puts at $6.78 to $6.13
12/20/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also with 5500 January $477 calls buy at $5.58 to $6.20
12/20/23 Dow Jones ETF (DIA) with 3375 December 2024 $360/$305 put spreads bought
12/20/23 Celsius Holdings (CELH) 2500 May $35 puts sold to open $1.50 and 2165 Feb $46.67 puts sold to open $2.30
12/20/23 Morgan Stanley (MS) buyer 1000 April $90 puts $3.95 offer
12/20/23 MasterCard (MA) buyer 690 January 2025 $540 calls $7.40
12/20/23 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with buyers of 2250 Feb $340 calls at $14.50 as Jan $295 calls adjust
12/20/23 Amgen (AMGN) 5000 January $265 puts sell to open 1.88
12/20/23 Arista Networks (ANET) bull spreads in Feb buying 1250 of the $260 calls and selling 625 of the $240 puts
12/20/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyer of 1600 Jan 12th $149 calls for $7.60 to $8.05
12/20/23 Oracle (ORCL) buyer 1100 September $115 calls for $7.10
12/20/23 Adobe (ADBE) trade opens 500 March $670/$545 bull risk reversals at $4.80 debit
12/20/23 Microsoft (MSFT) large buyers for 1400 April $350 ITM calls at $39.10 to $39.65
12/20/23 Google (GOOGL) buyers of 1400 April $130 ITM calls for $16.55 to $17, similar to MSFT buys
12/20/23 Workday (WDAY) 400 Jan 2026 175 puts sell to open 9.60
12/20/23 Applied Materials (AMAT) with 1400 Feb $165 calls buy at $6.80 as Jan $155 calls adjust
12/20/23 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) seeing opening sales of 1000 Jan 12th $320 calls at $15.60
12/19/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 3250 Feb. 29th (W) $479 puts selling to open for $3.4M premium
12/19/23 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also seeing 3150 May 31st (W) $485 calls bought for $5M
12/19/23 Russell Value ETF (IWN) buyer 1500 August 170 calls $4.60 to $4.70
12/19/23 Tesla (TSLA) seeing size buys in March $320 calls 6000X $6.20 to $6.45 offer
12/19/23 MercadoLibre (MELI) seeing 300 June $1200 puts sell to open at $26.50 down to $26
12/19/23 Occidental Petro (OXY) with 5000 February $52.5 puts sold to open 0.35
12/19/23 Block (SQ) with 1750 January $76 puts sold to open $3.05 bid
12/19/23 Zillow (Z) seller 2500 January 2025 80 calls to open 4.76
12/19/23 MasterCard (MA) block of 1235 February $445 calls sold to open $5.35
12/19/23 Citigroup (C) buyer of 11,000 June $57.50 calls at $1.63 to $1.66
12/19/23 Medtronic (MDT) opening seller of 3800 Jan $80 puts for $0.67
12/19/23 Insulet (PODD) opening seller 125 Dec. 2024 $220 puts for 34.50
12/19/23 Novo Nordisk (NVO) large block sells to open 1000 Jan 2025 $100 puts for $10.61
12/19/23 AbbVie (ABBV) buyers of 1000 Jan $146 ITM calls at $8.50 to $8.95
12/19/23 Caterpillar (CAT) buyer 425 August $350 calls at $6.90 offer
12/19/23 PulteGroup (PHM) opening sales of 500 Jan 2025 $120 calls at $9 to $8.80
12/19/23 Oracle (ORCL) with 10,000 Jan $100 puts sell to open at $0.72 bids
12/19/23 Applovin (APP) seeing buyers of 330 May $40 ITM calls for $8.50 to $9
12/19/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 350 May 130 puts sold to open 8.57
12/19/23 Palo Alto (PANW) opening sale 300 November $290 puts for $28
12/18/23 Energy ETF (XLE) buyers for over 12,000 Jan $89 calls for $0.80
12/18/23 Tesla (TSLA) buyer 400 July $285 calls OTM at $29.45 offer
12/18/23 On Holding (ONON) with 2000 January 2025 $45 calls sold to open 2.60 to 2.55
12/18/23 Roblox (RBLX) sellers of 4500 February $37.50 puts for 1.20
12/18/23 DoorDash (DASH) buyer 50,000 March $90 calls $16.96 as Feb. 70 adjust, long running position
12/18/23 Marathon Petro (MPC) opening sale 500 July 155 calls for 13.60
12/18/23 Zillow (Z) with 5000 July $55/$75 call spreads bought
12/18/23 Inhibrx (INBX) seeing unusual 600 January $30 calls bought $2.75 to $4.20
12/18/23 Baxter (BAX) with 1250 January 2025 $40 calls bought to open $4.40 offer
12/18/23 Oracle (ORCL) buyers of 7000 February $110 calls $2.25+
12/18/23 Smartsheet (SMAR) with buyers 945 January $50 calls near $1.10 offer
12/18/23 Aehr Systems (AEHR) with 1500 March $30 calls bought aggressive $4 offer sweeps
12/18/23 ST Microelectronics (STM) buyer 775 July $50 calls $6
12/18/23 Taiwan Semi (TSM) massive buy 30,250 February $95 calls $10.26 as the Feb. 80 adjust
12/18/23 Microchip (MCHP) buyer 1000 April $100 calls at $3.50
12/18/23 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 5830 February $140/$160 call spreads adjusting lower January calls
12/18/23 Adobe (ADBE) large opening sale 550 March $560 puts for 19.50
12/18/23 Nvidia (NVDA) buyers 4000 March $520 calls $32.20 on position adjustments and spreading with $595 calls
12/18/23 Meta (META) 500 June $355 calls selling to open 32.85
12/18/23 Apple (AAPL) trading over 13,000 February $195 puts today with opening seller flow
12/18/23 Microsoft (MSFT) January $377.5 calls up to 5500X with size buyers $6.45 offer