Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:15 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 6:25 Stock Review – Biotech: XBI (ETF), RVNC, VTYX, BTAI, IMCR, VRNA, AMLX, SGEN, RAPT
4) 11:20 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), NVDA, ACLS, ALGM, PI, LSCC, MBLY, AEHR
5) 15:00 Stock Review – Software: AYX, ESTC, AI, TENB, PANW
6) 17:40 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: TMDX, URI, WING, TXRH, SGML, ANET
7) 22:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In the MidWeek Video (2/15/23), I discussed the five reasons to expect weakness over the near-term. We started to see weakness towards the end of that week, and I said coming into this past week to be open-minded. I didn’t have any strong opinion on whether we would bounce off the 21-day or see weakness this week as the seasonality was forecasting. Unfortunately, we saw continued weakness this past week taking the major indexes approximately down to their 200-day moving averages. The negatives: The overall market weakness and economic reports showing that inflation is still high. The positives: The market was down on lighter volume and some of the excess bullish sentiment is starting to come down.
From here, I still want to observe and let the market prove itself. In the past two weeks, the market dropped to its first level of support (21-day) and is now down to the next level (200-day). It’s the same conclusion for me. I don’t have strong conviction whether we will bounce off this support or see further weakness. Therefore, I’m keeping my investment levels at approximately 40-45% invested and will observe the market’s price action over the next few days. If the market sees further weakness, my cash position will hopefully cushion the downside, and if the price action improves, there are plenty of relative strength stocks mentioned in this video that I can look to buy or add to. Thank you for watching and please enjoy the remainder of your weekend!
Unusual Option Activity:
2/24/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) seeing 10,000 March 24th $35/$33 put spreads bought for $0.47
2/24/23 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) large buyer of 10,000 March 24th $290/$265 put spreads for $6.56
2/24/23 Energy ETF (XLE) with 70,000 June $76 puts opening as March 80 adjust
2/24/23 Tesla (TSLA) with 1216 March 10th $155 ITM calls bought for $42.33, adjusts the Feb 24th calls
2/24/23 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) buyer 5500 June $46 puts $1.25
2/24/23 Target (TGT) reports next week and seeing opening sales of 2100 June $190 calls for $5.15
2/24/23 Schlumberger (SLB) buyers of 2300 January 2025 $47.50 puts for $6.95
2/24/23 Peabody Energy (BTU) buyer of 2000 April $24 calls for $3.80, adjusting the $28 calls
2/24/23 Google (GOOGL) early buyer 1000 Mar. 24th (W) $89 calls $3.85
2/24/23 Amazon (AMZN) buyer 1000 March 24th (W) $92 calls $5.35 to $5.45, same expiration as the GOOGL trade
2/24/23 Apple (AAPL) opening seller 6500 March 148 calls this morning 3.65
2/24/23 Apple (AAPL) also large buyers of 12,000 March $146 puts for $3.95
2/24/23 Mobileye (MBLY) opening seller 5000 April $30 puts for 0.63
2/24/23 Microsoft (MSFT) large opening seller 10,000 April 225 puts 3.50 to 3.45
2/24/23 ON Semi (ON) opening seller of 2400 March $73 puts for $1.86
2/24/23 Sigma Lithium (SGML) large trade buys 5000 April $40/$50 call spreads for $1.70. Recently rumored to be takeover target of Tesla
2/23/23 Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) buyer 30,000 April $36/$30 put spreads for $1.46, been weak since the size March put buys
2/23/23 Tesla (TSLA) with 8750 April 141.67 puts sold to open today 3.55
2/23/23 Celsius (CELH) into 3-1 earnings buyer 1500 of the $92 calls for next week $4.16 and selling $103 and $105 calls
2/23/23 McDonalds (MCD) buyer 1000 April 250 puts 2.46
2/23/23 Occidental (OXY) opening seller 1900 April 62.50 puts 5.71 after some bull flow yesterday
2/23/23 Devon (DVN) opening seller 600 January 2025 $45 puts 7.20
2/23/23 Freeport McMoran (FCX) opening seller 800 August $41 puts for $4.85
2/23/23 Freeport McMoran (FCX) also with 10,000 May $47 calls bought $1.22
2/23/23 Apple (AAPL) buyers coming for December 190 calls $3.75 for 4000X
2/23/23 Micron (MU) spread sells 3000 Sept $42.50 puts and buys 3000 Oct $85 calls for net 5 cent credit
2/23/23 Amazon (AMZN) opening seller 1500 August 80 puts for 4.05