Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:40 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 8:40 FOCUS LIST: XBI (ETF), CELH, SWAV, HALO
4) 13:00 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: GH, UTHR, LNTH, PRCT, NTLA, BEAM, TWST, CRSP, ARKG (ETF), EVH, DICE, NGM, AXSM, TMDX, CSTL
5) 17:55 Stocks near buyable ranges: SWAV, EVH
6) 18:50 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In this video, I review the current positives and negatives in the market. Positives: 1) Most of the major indexes are back above their respective 50-day moving averages. 2) Sentiment is still very poor and many people are lightly invested. Negatives: 1) The hawkish Fed. They are still raising rates and have not signaled a pause yet. 2) There are very few stocks acting well outside of Biotech and Medical Products. Most of the move this past week came from beaten down sectors. Conclusion: Keep exposure to the strongest stocks and ETFs while also keeping some cash in case the Fed puts pressure on the market next week.
If this rally is for real, we need to see three things: 1) A healthy, sideways digestion over the next few weeks. 2) Very little distribution over the near-term. 3) More stocks set up. We need the number of stocks and sectors to broaden out. In this video, I use an example from the fall of 2010. If we see a healthy digestion over the near-term AND the Fed signals next week that they will pause their current rate-hiking cycle, then we could see a sustained rally. Until then, I think it’s still worth being patient and letting the market prove itself. If you have any questions or would like me to discuss any stocks not covered in this video, you can ask them during the next webinar this Saturday, July 23rd at 11AM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity
7/20/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 20,000 Aug $315 calls $4.80 as Aug $300/280 bull risk reversals derisk
7/20/22 Nvidia (NVDA) sales to open 4500 November $120 puts today at $4
7/20/22 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 1470 February $130 calls $12.10 to $12.20
7/20/22 Bitcoin ETF (BITO) buyers active for 38,000 December $15 calls $2.74 to $2.83
7/20/22 Monster Beverage (MNST) with 1000 Aug. 5th (W) 99/91 bull risk reversals opening at $1.63 debit, earnings 8-4
7/20/22 Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) seller 1250 September $52.50 puts to open $2.90
7/19/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) midday buyers of Aug. 12th (W) $400 calls 15,000X
7/19/22 Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) with 2000 August $70 calls selling to open $4.20 to $3.60 into strength
7/19/22 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) with 17,000 August $135 calls bought $2.42 to $2.92
7/19/22 Salesforce (CRM) aggressive sweeps selling to open February $115 puts at 3.70 bids over 2,000x
7/19/22 Marathon Petro (MPC) with 1500 October $100/$115 call spreads bought for $2.30
7/19/22 Guardant Health (GH) with 7500 December $25/$20 bull put spreads opening and 4200 Dec. $50 puts sold to open $13.10
7/19/22 Guardant Health (GH) also with 3350 Dec. $50 calls bought at $10.20 and Dec. $30 and $40 calls adjusting
7/19/22 Alphabet (GOOGL) opening put sellers in far OTM September 2023 $62 puts sold at $1.55, over 4,000x
7/19/22 Dice Therap (DICE) spread sells 2000 Aug $20/$15 strangles for $2.32 and buys 2000 Oct. $17.5/$25 call spreads for $2.75
7/19/22 Irhythm Tech (IRTC) with 750 Sep. $155 calls opening $12.15 as some Aug. call spreads adjust
7/19/22 Nvidia (NVDA) with 2000 Aug. 26th (W) $155 ITM calls opening $17.50
7/19/22 Twitter (TWTR) trade sells 10,000 Sept $36 puts at $1.64 to buy 10,000 of the Jan $47/$55 call spreads at $2.86
Small net debit overall and looking for potential deal back above $50
7/18/22 Apple (AAPL) block of 15,000 Aug. 26th (W) $147 calls opens $7 into lows
7/18/22 BioMarin (BMRN) with 780 Jan $110 OTM calls near $3.20, name with some consistent bull flow
7/18/22 Eli Lilly (LLY) seeing 1000 Oct. $290 puts sell to open 7.50 to 7.10
7/18/22 Tesla (TSLA) with the Sept $650/$550 put spreads active 4000X into earnings this week
7/18/22 Tesla (TSLA) also seeing 1500 March 2023 $540 puts bought to open for around $8.5M
7/18/22 Occidental (OXY) opening seller 3000 Jan 57.50 puts for 7.45, also 10,000 Jan. $70 calls bought $5.95
7/18/22 Occidental (OXY) also 1000 Aug $56 puts sell to open for $2.09
7/18/22 Visa (V) seller to open 3370 August 185 puts into day lows for 1.83
7/18/22 MasterCard (MA) seeing 2400 August $305 puts sell to open for $4.52, similar to the V trade
7/18/22 Ultra Short (SQQQ) January $60 puts with 3800X being bought for $20.60, large premium, so a bullish bet on QQQ
7/18/22 Amazon (AMZN) buyers active for 10,000 October $145 OTM calls 1.45 to 1.50
7/18/22 Amazon (AMZN) opening sale 1000 Dec. $99 puts for $5.50
7/18/22 Celsius Holdings (CELH) seeing 1,850 far OTM January $40 puts sold to open at $2.75
7/18/22 Enovix (ENVX) sale of 1000 Jan $15 puts for $5.60 which follows the recent bull risk reversals