My recent Yahoo Finance Article and Interview: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-fed-upside-211930255.html
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:20 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 5:20 FOCUS LIST: XBI (ETF), CELH, SWAV, HALO
4) 8:55 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: GH, UTHR, CCXI, LEGN, CORT, HRMY, TMDX, ITCI, ALKS, BEAM, CRSP, VERV, NTLA, TWST, ARKG (ETF), EVH, LNTH, MNST
5) 15:50 Stocks near buyable ranges: VRTX, SWAV
6) 17:00 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
I stick to the same thing I’ve been saying since early April. The market will not see any SUSTAINED upside until the Fed pauses their current rate-hiking cycle. You still have to be patient and defensive until we get verbal confirmation from the Fed. The good news is that some stocks and sectors (especially our Focus List) are showing great relative strength and I feel they will be higher 6 to 12 months from now. For example, even in a tough tape so far this week, you can clearly see that the Biotech sector (XBI) is showing great strength.
So, what do you do from here? It all depends on your risk tolerance and timeframe. I’m ok with owning some of the strongest stocks and ETFs, as long as they are LIGHTER THAN NORMAL positions. I also think it’s worth keeping cash available to cushion any potential downside, and also to have some ready when better opportunities show up later this year. For example, I am approximately 40% invested and will do my best to manage my positions. If any break down, I will be quick to cut losses. Again, I can’t stress this enough, today’s CPI report was higher than expected and the Fed will be aggressively fighting inflation. You don’t want to fight that right now and it’s best to remain defensive until market conditions improve. If you are inclined to trade, please keep positions light. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.
Unusual Option Activity
7/13/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) morning notables include 3000 Oct. $361 puts selling to open for $3.8M premium
7/13/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also Aug. $358 puts opening 40,000X in sweep buys that may be adjusting 363’s
7/13/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) afternoon buyers in Aug. 5th (W) $300 calls 8000X for over $3M
7/13/22 ChemoCentryx (CCXI) jumpy with 1200 August $22.50 calls bought here $2.95 offer
7/13/22 Apple (AAPL) buyer 10,000 Oct. $165 calls $3.05 to $3.20
7/13/22 Cytokinetics (CYTK) seeing Aug 48 calls sell to close
7/13/22 Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) 500 Jan 10 ITM calls opening for $8 today
7/13/22 Amazon (AMZN) with 675 March 2023 $52 deep ITM calls bought this morning for over $4M
7/13/22 Phillips 66 (PSX) size buys 1350 January $87.50 calls at $6.50
7/12/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) opening seller 4000 March 2023 $235 puts at 9.73
7/12/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also seller of 6000 August $306 calls for 4.10
7/12/22 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trading 27,000 September $355/$325 put spreads today
7/12/22 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) buyer of 700 Dec. $57.50 calls $8.20
7/12/22 Merck (MRK) buyer 800 June 2023 $80 puts for $3.70, expected to do large M&A deal for SGEN
7/12/22 Amgen (AMGN) buyer 5000 August 12th (W) $235 puts for $3.25, name that has seen a lot of call selling
7/12/22 Nvidia (NVDA) with 1100 March $170 calls opening for $2.1M as August $155 adjust
7/12/22 Amazon (AMZN) opening sale 1000 July 2023 $110 puts for $15.45 to $15.91
7/11/22 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) buyer 5000 Aug $105/$95 put spreads for $2.36, sells 2500 of the $129 calls
7/11/22 Marathon Oil (MRO) opening sale 1500 October $22 puts for $3.10
7/11/22 Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) opening sale 2000 Oct. $105 calls for $2.90
7/11/22 Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) 2000 Aug 65 calls sold 2 to open
7/11/22 Biotech ETF (XBI) 1500 Aug 80 puts sold to open $4
7/11/22 Zoom (ZM) with 1200 January $165 calls sold to open 6.60
7/11/22 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) with 2000 February $42 calls bought to open ITM at $3.40 offers