Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 7:50 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), XOP (ETF), OIH (ETF), USO (ETF), DVN, APA, FANG, MPC, EQT, MRO, COP, XOM, EOG
4) 13:25 Stock Review – Commodity Related: CF, MOS, NTR, ADM, BG
5) 15:00 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: LLY, BMY, MRK, ALB, LTHM, PRCT, LNTH
6) 17:25 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
As I mentioned in the MidWeek Video, the strong day on Wednesday was due to the positive interpretation from the Fed meeting. The big question is: Was this just a short-covering rally within a bear market? Or has the market discounted much of the bad news and we’re close to a bottom? My answer was let the market prove itself and lean defensive because there were no growth stocks setting up. If this was the beginning of a new uptrend, then we would see a follow through day and overall conditions would improve. Unfortunately, it proved just to be a short-covering rally, as the market gave back all of its gains on Thursday, and the Nasdaq took out Monday’s low on Friday. When looking at the Weekly charts, the Nasdaq Composite has seen 3 straight weeks of accelerated volume selling. The S&P 500 has been down 5 straight weeks. This is the first time that’s happened in 11 years, and only the ninth time in the past 25 years. Statistics show that these events are usually not the low, and the market sees a -13% further decline on average.
The conclusion is the same: Stay defensive and be patient! When digesting the news this week, let’s not forget that the Fed is still raising rates and taking liquidity out of the system. You don’t want to fight that right now. I slowly increased my investment levels this week, but reduced back to approximately 10% invested because I’m worried the weight of the market will continue to be a headwind for many stocks. The best stocks that continue to show up on my screens are from the Energy sector. If you are interested in these names, just remember to get strong entry points and keep your positions light. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be Monday, May 9th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend. Also, I want to wish all the Moms out there a Happy Mother’s Day!
Unusual Option Activity
5/6/22 Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) buyers of 800 October $60 calls this afternoon for $12.60 to open
5/6/22 Livent (LTHM) buyers of 1000 January $25 calls for $7.40 to $7.70 to open
5/6/22 Kellogg (K) the June $75 calls active today with 2500 bought up to $0.75
5/6/22 Exxon (XOM) size buyer 1200 Jan. 2024 $105 calls for $8.24
5/6/22 Apache (APA) buyers 2500 June $50 calls near $1.05
5/6/22 Marathon Oil (MRO) with over 5000 June $30 calls bought near $1.44 as some positions adjust higher
5/6/22 Conocophillips (COP) with 2500 August $97.50 puts sold to open $5.95
5/6/22 Conocophillips (COP) also seeing the July $120 calls open 1500X for $2.45/$2.50
5/6/22 Microsoft (MSFT) with 3000 July $315 calls sold to open this morning from $3 to $2.88
5/5/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 9500 June/September $338 call calendar spreads opening for $8.92
5/5/22 Marathon Oil (MRO) with 1800 June $29 calls bought for $1.78 to $2.09
5/5/22 Occidental Petro (OXY) morning buyers active for 2800 November max strike $90 calls $3.55 offer
5/5/22 Apple (AAPL) seeing 10,000 June 10th (W) $170 calls sell to open $3.15 to $3.10 early
5/5/22 Albemarle (ALB) opening sales of 2,500 September $180 puts from $8.60 to $8.30
5/5/22 Albemarle (ALB) also trading 750 June $250/$200 bull risk reversals
5/5/22 EOG Resources (EOG) buyers of 500 July $125 calls for $9.50 to $10 to open today
5/5/22 Exxon (XOM) with 750 November $95 calls bought between $5.90 and $6
5/5/22 Z-Scaler (ZS) with 325 October $165 puts bought $20.85
5/5/22 Zoom Info (ZI) buyers of 1500 October $45 puts for $5.90
5/5/22 Snowflake (SNOW) spread sold 900 August $140 puts to buy the $190/$250 call spreads