Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 6:00 Stock Review – Energy: XLE (ETF), XOP (ETF), OIH (ETF), VLO, MPC, OXY, DVN, EOG, FANG
4) 9:00 Stock Review – Commodity Related: BG, CF, MOS, IPI, NTR
5) 10:35 Stock Review – Large Cap Pharma: ABBV, LLY, BMY, RGEN, AZN
6) 11:50 Stock Review – Watch List/General Ideas/Commentary: SWAV, CUTR, LNTH, PRCT, PANW
7) 14:40 Conclusion/Summary

Market Summary:
The message is the same: We’re in a correction, stay defensive, and I don’t see any sustained upside until the Fed is done with their rate-hiking cycle or at least pauses it. Can we still see short-term bounces? Of course. In fact, when the market gets stretched below its 21-day, we often do see countertrend rallies. The only problem is they are difficult to time and right now there are very few stocks acting well. If you are inclined to try and play a bounce, my best suggestions are to use Index ETFs, keep your positions light, and manage risk.

A few members have asked me if this week’s decline was a successful retest of the March lows and if much of the bad news is already priced into this market. Of course, that is a possibility, but if that’s the case we would see a Follow Through Day in the next week or two, and stocks would start setting up. In other words, be patient and let the market prove itself. If we have bottomed and you miss some of the bounce, there will be plenty of time to make money if a new uptrend is for real. My instincts are telling me that we haven’t bottomed because the Fed is just starting to raise rates, but as always, I will stay open-minded and take this day by day. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next webinar, which will be Monday, May 2nd at 7:30PM EST. Thank you and good luck for the remainder of the week.

Unusual Option Activity
4/27/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 5000 January $330 calls $27.41 to open
4/27/22 Schlumberger (SLB) with 1000 May $40.50 calls bought up to $2.18
4/27/22 Google (GOOGL) 250 August $2100 ITM calls opens $313
4/27/22 Nkarta (NKTX) with 1000 June $12.50 ITM calls bought from $6.10 to $7
4/27/22 Tesla (TSLA) buyers active in May 13th (W) $835 puts in $25 to $27 range
4/27/22 Valero (VLO) with 8,500 June $125 calls bought for $1.56 as 2,500 of the June $110 calls close and adjust higher
4/27/22 Exxon (XOM) August $100 calls being sold to open 700X at $1.33
4/27/22 Chevron (CVX) with 9000 June $175 calls selling to open 2.14
4/27/22 Bristol Myers (BMY) with 3000 July $72.50 puts sold to open for $2.17
4/27/22 Service Now (NOW) with 850 September $310 puts sold to open down to $9.10 from $10.30
4/27/22 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer of 1400 August $330 calls at $5 offer
4/27/22 Apple (AAPL) with opening sellers 4500 March 2023 $145 puts for $17.40, over $7.7M
4/27/22 On Semi (ON) buyer 3000 next week $54/$59 call spreads for $1.25 for earnings 5-2
4/26/22 Schlumberger (SLB) with 2000 November $32.50 puts sold to open for $2.46
4/26/22 Shopify (SHOP) buyers in October $320 puts $33.10 up to near $35
4/26/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 15,000 June $335/$290 bull risk reversals opening at $3.55 debit
4/26/22 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also 6000 July $360/$300 bull risk reversals
4/26/22 Walmart (WMT) large opening sale of 1500 September $160 ITM puts at $11.25 bid
4/26/22 Peabody Energy (BTU) with 2250 May $32 calls bought today for $1.40 to $1.45
4/26/22 Cameco (CCJ) with 2,950 May $26 calls bought to open mid-day from $2.75 to $2.80
4/26/22 AbbVie (ABBV) buyers early of 1,500 May $157.50 calls from $4.35 to $4.45 into 4-29 earnings
4/25/22 Energy ETF (XLE) with 7500 July $75 calls being bought for $2.7M, also a seller of 4K June 68 puts
4/25/22 Energy ETF (XLE) also with 3000 Sep $76/$70 bull risk reversals opening at a net credit
4/25/22 Devon (DVN) with 1000 next week $55/$60 call spreads bought for $2.05, earnings 5-2
4/25/22 Tesla (TSLA) with 1000 December $1350 calls sold to open for $84.80 to $84.10
4/25/22 Pepsi (PEP) with 10,000 June $180 calls sold to open for $1.74 today
4/25/22 Bristol Myers (BMY) with 10,000 July $80 calls sold to open for $1.19 to $1.18.
4/25/22 Eli Lilly (LLY) with 5000 May $310 calls sold to open from $1.42 to $1.36
4/25/22 Texas Instruments (TXN) with 1300 October $125 puts sold to open for $3.15
4/25/22 Apple (AAPL) the June 3rd (W) $150 puts sold to open 1000X for $4.60 with earnings on 4-28
4/25/22 Twitter (TWTR) seeing 2000 October $55/$47 bull risk reversals open for $1.35 credit
4/22/22 Tesla (TSLA) with 4000 May $1225 calls sold to open from $9.50 to $9.25