Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:00 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 13:40 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, SHOP, QQQ (ETF)
4) 16:00 Stock Review – General Commentary: NTLA, CRWD, TAN, TWST, SQ
5) 19:25 Watch List – INMD, ETSY, OTRK, PDD, ALGN, HALO, TSM, VIPS, ADPT
6) 23:30 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Over the past several nights of screening, I’ve found very few quality setups. As you know, 90% of what I use to judge the health of the market is the price action of stocks. Right now, growth stocks are correcting beneath the surface and it is making me cautious over the near-term. In the article I wrote for Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2021-markets-preview-2-rare-events-are-a-sign-of-whats-to-come-141645928.html), I discussed how I was expecting a correction in Q1. My instincts are telling my the first quarter of 2021 will see some churning and corrective price action. In other words, I don’t think the wind will be at our backs for the type of sustained uptrend that I like to expose significant capital to. I mentioned that I would be reducing exposure this week and I’ve reduced from 85% invested down to 30% invested. As I explain in this video, I had a small drawdown this week and I’m doing my best to prevent larger declines for clients. As always, what you decide to do should be based on your own timeframe and investment objectives.
Please keep in mind that I can be wrong and the market can continue higher. If that happens, I still have exposure to the market and I can always buy an ETF if I need to increase my exposure. Either way, I think it’s a good idea to get off margin and to reduce your position size over the next few weeks. The good news is that if we get a correction: 1) I don’t think it will be a sustained decline and 2) There will be great relative strength stocks that will show up when things stabilize. Again, I will take this day by day and continue to update you with my analysis in these videos. I simply prefer to be protective right now until I see safer entry points and better setups. Good luck for the remainder of the week and Happy New Year!!!
Unusual Option Activity
12/29/20 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with 50,000 April $283 puts bought for $8.09, adjusting back the $265 puts
12/29/20 Visa (V) block of 1500 February 5th (W) $220 calls opened for $4.80
12/29/20 MasterCard (MA) buyers of 4,000 April $350 calls from $22.55 to $23.25
12/29/20 Cloudflare (NET) buyer 1000 January $79 calls $4.10 offer
12/29/20 Bill.com (BILL) opening sale 500 May $105 puts for $7.40
12/29/20 Fastly (FSLY) with over 3000 June $90 calls being bought $18.80 to $19.40
12/29/20 Microsoft (MSFT) with 16,000 January $232.50/$242.50 call spreads bought for $1.32
12/29/20 Twilio (TWLO) with 185 January 2022 $290 puts sold to open for $40.95 to $39.35
12/29/20 Zoom Video (ZM) sellers of 2,000 June $250 puts from $16 to $15.60 in the afternoon
12/28/20 Square (SQ) with 3000 February $270 calls being bought $5.70 to $5.85
12/28/20 Disney (DIS) size buyer of 10,000 April $160 calls for $23.65 to open
12/28/20 Invitae (NVTA) with 2,000 January 2023 $45 calls opening for $19.05 as the $35 calls adjust higher
12/28/20 Tesla (TSLA) buyers active early for 1500 March 2022 $710 calls $171 to $176.
12/28/20 Tesla (TSLA) buyers of 1800 September $80 calls for $589.50 and also seeing 25,000 January 2023 $600 calls bought for $260.72 as the $500 calls adjust higher
12/28/20 Penn National (PENN) with 1,000 January 2023 $85 calls bought for $37.82 as the $45 calls adjust higher
12/28/20 Microchip (MCHP) with 975 January 2023 $185 calls bought for $12.70 to $12.85
12/28/20 Chegg (CHGG) buyers of 2,000 February $100 calls for $5.20 to $5.40
12/28/20 Peloton (PTON) buyer of 2000 February $175 calls for $11.21 as Jan. 22nd (W) calls adjusted
12/28/20 Snowflake (SNOW) the February $300/$400 call spread opening 1650X for $27.50
12/28/20 Apple (AAPL) bullish flow continued with buyers early day of 3000 April $137.50 calls near $10.40
12/28/20 Apple (AAPL) also with 1,250 March 2023 $200 calls bought $13 to $13.20
12/28/20 Marvell Tech (MRVL) buyer 20,000 February $55 calls for $0.80 as $45/$65 call spreads closed
12/28/20 Tower Semi (TSEM) with 7500 January $28 calls bought to open $0.40 to $0.57. TSEM with 950 July $25 calls bought for $3.90