Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:20 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:30 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA, SHOP, QQQ (ETF)
4) 14:40 Stock Review – Software: CRWD, OKTA, ZS, APPS, DDOG, ZM, TWLO, DOCU, FIVN, SAIL, NET
5) 20:30 Stock Review – Semiconductors: NVDA (I skipped this section by accident but it’s discussed later)
6) 21:10 Stock Review – Medical Products/Biotech: NVCR, SGEN, NVTA, FLGT, ALGN
7) 28:10 Stock Review – General Ideas/Commentary: V, CHGG, EXPI, PGNY, TXG, LL, FND, Z, CLSK, CRNC, FTCH, MGNI, UPWK
8) 38:40 Stock Review – Semiconductors: NVDA, BRKS, UCTT, COHU, TSEM, LSCC, SMH (ETF)
9) 40:40 Current Setups – FSLY, INMD, PYPL, AMD, NOW
10) 46:15 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Although the major averages were down this week, the price action was very strong beneath the surface. The Nasdaq 100 corrected down to its 21-day EMA, and the Nasdaq Comp and S&P 500 also came down close to that same level. One of the market’s recent negatives was that the major averages were technically extended and this week’s pullback helped to offset this negative. That doesn’t mean they can’t drop further, but any dips are likely to be bought into year-end. In addition, some sentiment measures cooled off this week. This is a good sign as the market’s sideways movement helped to “wear out” some of the recent bullish sentiment.
From now until year-end, I will be staying long and fairly aggressive in the market. My main reasoning is the strength in stocks I am noticing beneath the surface. Again, the major averages were down this week but so many stocks acted well. In my view, this strength is likely to continue over the near term. Another reason is the strong seasonality. The upcoming week is a regular cycle options expiration week, which tends to trend to the upside. Following that, we have two holiday-shortened weeks which also tend to trend higher. In addition, the “Santa Claus rally” traditionally starts around the middle of December and lasts into year-end. IMPORTANT NOTE: This doesn’t mean to just go on margin and have no cares in the world. YOU STILL HAVE TO REMAIN DISCIPLINED! In other words, don’t chase extended stocks and stick to a loss-cutting discipline in case the market (or stocks) turns against us. This is a very strong market and please keep in mind this resilient price action won’t last forever. Let’s do our best to take advantage of it but remember to stay disciplined and keep things in perspective. If you have any questions, please ask them during the next webinar this Sunday, December 13th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Unusual Option Activity:
12/11/20 Appian (APPN) with 600 January $160 calls bought from $14.90 to $15.10
12/11/20 Zoom (ZM) buyers of 1,000 January 22nd (W) $400 calls for $30 this afternoon
12/11/20 Zillow (Z) with a block of 2,875 January $120 puts sold to open this afternoon for $6, stock replacement
12/11/20 Zillow (Z) also with afternoon buyers of the January $145 calls for $3.05, over 1250X
12/11/20 Trade Desk (TTD) with the December $880 calls bought today from $48.60 to $55, around 550X
12/11/20 Pinterest (PINS) the May $105 calls being bought 1300X for $4.70 to $4.75 today
12/11/20 Pinterest (PINS) also the June $60 puts sold to open today 650X for $8.20
12/11/20 Cohu (COHU) continues to draw upside call action with 600 May $40 calls bought $6 to $6.20, tight bull flag after recent guidance boost
12/11/20 Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) with 1000 March $90 calls opening for $5
12/11/20 Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) calls up to 1750X with buyers now paying $5.50
12/11/20 Alexion (ALXN) buyer of 3,150 January $130 calls for $2.80, follows the OTM call buying yesterday and name often brought up in M&A talks
12/11/20 Fastly (FSLY) buyer 1300 Dec. 31st (W) $125 calls for $2.90, way OTM short time-frame
12/11/20 Fastly (FSLY) January $125 OTM calls bought aggressive $4.40 offer 1250X as well
12/10/20 DocuSign (DOCU) with 500 June $190 puts selling to open $16.70
12/10/20 Ambarella (AMBA) rising, Jan $105 calls 1700X near $2.65 offer active
12/10/20 Micron (MU) buyer 1600 June $105 calls for $2.05
12/10/20 Tesla (TSLA) opening seller 10,000 January 2023 $120 puts for $8.20
12/10/20 Lemonade (LMND) shares moving strong now up over 17.5% and 1,250 January $100 calls being bought up to $13.70, smaller lots
12/10/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyer 5000 January $115 calls $2.01 as 7000 Dec. $110 adjust
12/10/20 Advanced Micro (AMD) buyer 3900 Dec. 31st (W) $102 calls $1.44 as Dec. $106 calls are sold, also buyers of 4000 of the Dec.31st (W) $103 calls
12/10/20 Novocure (NVCR) strong run lately and 500 June $240 calls bought for $10.60 to $10.70 this morning as the December $165 calls close and roll up and out into strength
12/10/20 Snowflake (SNOW) buyer of 800 January $520 calls today $12 to $12.40
12/10/20 Repligen (RGEN) with 475 May $125 puts sold to open today for $4.60 to $4.50
12/10/20 Salesforce (CRM) October $240 size call buys here with 2500X and climbing at $25+, follows size September $240 call buys recently
12/10/20 Salesforce (CRM) also a buyer of 1000 May $240 calls $16.10
12/10/20 Zillow (Z) buyer of 1175 May $100 deep ITM calls today $30.45
12/10/20 Schrodinger (SDGR) with 700 December $65 puts sold to open for $2.70, top play on AI-driven drug discovery
12/10/20 Pinterest (PINS) with 4000 May $80 calls opening near $10 as appears January $60 adjusting out and up
12/10/20 Pinterest (PINS) buyer 1500 Jan. 29th (W) $68 calls at $7.80, adjusts out of some Jan. $47
12/10/20 Cloudflare (NET) buyer 1300 Dec. 31st (W) $90 calls for $2
12/10/20 Cloudflare (NET) the December 31st (W) calls up to 5350X
12/10/20 Cloudflare (NET) the Dec. 31st (W) $90 calls up over 12.500X
12/10/20 Google (GOOGL) nearly $6M in January $1770 calls bought as the $1750 adjust higher
12/10/20 Twilio (TWLO) 700 Dec $330 calls bought $7 to $7.70
12/10/20 Fastly (FSLY) 1300 Jan $95 calls saw some aggressive buyers paying $12
12/10/20 Fastly (FSLY) buyers of 5000 Dec. 31st (W) $120 far OTM calls, similar to NET timeframe
12/10/20 Fastly (FSLY) 1700 March $115 calls bought $10.90 offer as well
12/10/20 Fastly (FSLY) 400 Jan 29th (W) $94 calls bought $15 here
12/10/20 Crowd-Strike (CRWD) with 1,000 March $200 calls bought today $11.80 to $12.10, top cyber security play for much of 2020
12/20/20 Crowd-Strike (CRWD) also with nearly $3M buy of January 2023 $180 calls for 545X
12/9/20 Zoom (ZM) spread bought 1000 June $380 calls and sold 2400 of the $310 puts, popular strategy in June since earnings
12/9/20 Google (GOOGL) through the afternoon with 5000 February $2000 calls bought $26.70 to $27.70 for around $14M
12/9/20 Zillow (Z) with 1350 September $100 deep ITM calls opening in afternoon trade