Some members have asked about my longer and shorter-term views on the market. Longer-term, I am bullish for the following reasons: 1) This seems like a normal consolidation after the strong run we’ve had off the bear market bottom in March. In this video, I compare the market’s current consolidation to ones we’ve seen after similar situations (2003, 2009, and 2019). 2) There have been many “breadth thrust” indicators over the past 6 weeks. These usually lead to more strength 6 and 12 months later. You can find some articles on this below. 3) The Fed is still providing a low-interest rate, equity-friendly environment for equities. 4) Earnings are expected to improve as the economy continues to open back up into next year.

Shorter-term, I am waiting for the volatility to calm down and for more setups to show up. Please keep in mind we still have some headwinds upcoming such as the increase in Covid cases, a potentially contested election, and a new stimulus deal. Until then, I am leaning bullish on this market but I suggest using lighter than normal positions until the volatility compresses. The best way to deal with these wide daily ranges is to use light positions so you don’t continuously get stopped out. I am currently 60% invested and patiently waiting for safer entry points. Good luck for the remainder of the week!

Some articles on the Breadth Thrust Indicator developed by Marty Zweig:
https://www.metastock.com/customer/resources/taaz/?p=37
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/breadth-thrust-indicator.asp
https://twitter.com/edclissold/status/1314591382477180930

Unusual Option Activity:
11/11/20 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) midday buyer 4000 January $215 OTM calls $2.54 offer
11/11/20 Google (GOOGL) buyer 1200 December $1800 calls $39.20 looks to be adjusting 600 of the $1700 calls
11/11/20 NVIDIA (NVDA) with 2000 Dec. 24th (W) $660 OTM calls being bought up to $6 earlier today
11/11/20 Peloton (PTON) with 1250 December 4th (W) $108 calls bought up to $5.50
11/11/20 Pacific Bio (PACB) with a buyer 500 March $19 calls for $2.50
11/11/20 Amazon (AMZN) with an opening seller 600 Dec. 11th (W) $3110 puts $127 to $123
11/11/20 Google (GOOG) Jan 2022 $1760 calls with 100X bought today for $2.3M
11/11/20 BioHaven (BHVN) buyer of 1,250 January $110 calls for $8.10 to $8.20, some November $90 calls adjusting higher into strength
11/11/20 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 1,000 January 2022 $82.50 puts sold to open $18.40 to $18.50
11/11/20 Zillow (ZG) with 1,250 May $105 calls bought up to $18.80 to open with shares pulling back to fill the earnings gap this week
11/11/20 PayPal (PYPL) with 1670 Dec. 24th (W) $192.5/$175 bull risk reversals opening early
11/11/20 JD.com (JD) buyer 12,500 Dec. $82.50 calls $5.45 offer, earnings 11-16
11/11/20 Invitae (NVTA) with 1900 Dec. $50 calls buying up to $3.20 from $2.65
11/10/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) with 1,950 November $88 calls bought up to $2.15, follows size put sales yesterday.
11/20/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) the Nov. $88 calls now up over 9600X on the day
11/10/20 Roku (ROKU) with a buyer of 1000 November $220/$237.5 call spreads for $4
11/10/20 DocuSign (DOCU) buyers active in January $190 and $185 calls with 515X and 300X trading.
11/20/20 DocuSign (DOCU) also with 1500x March $195 puts sold to open today for $26.80 to $26.05
11/10/20 Lennar (LEN) the May $72.50 calls bought over 2,700X this morning for $8.90 to $9.10
11/10/20 KB Home (KBH) with 1,000 Jan. 2022 $32 calls bought for $6.90 to $7.30, similar to LEN earlier
11/10/20 Zillow (Z) bullish spread buys 2,000 February $110/$125 call spreads for $3.84 and sells the February $70 puts 1,000X for $1.67
11/10/20 S&P (SPY) spread sold 25,000 Dec. 31st (Q) $307 puts to buy the $375/$390 call spreads, net $0.69 credit
11/10/20 Draftkings (DKNG) buyers active 3000 Nov. 27th (W) $40 calls $3.50 offer into 11-13 earnings
11/10/20 Pinterest (PINS) the December $60 calls bought 38,000X today for $2.45 as the November $59 calls adjust out from 11/2
11/9/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) with 2,000 February $90 put sold to open for $6.15
11/9/20 Advanced Micro (AMD) with 2,400 Dec. 4th (W) $86.50 calls active with buyers today up to $4.50
11/9/20 Salesforce (CRM) buyer 34,000 November $380 calls $2.40 as the November $250 close at $17.60
11/9/20 JD.com (JD) buyers 1375 Dec. 4th (W) $90 calls $4.90 to $5
11/9/20 Palantir (PLTR) over 8,000 December $15 puts being bought this morning from $2.05 to $2.25 with earnings on 11-12
11/9/20 Adobe (ADBE) with 3000 November $450 puts being sold to open
11/9/20 Amazon (AMZN) $15M position opening 1000 Nov. 27th (W) $3150 calls, rolling back $3200 calls
11/9/20 Visa (V) with 1500 March 2022 $220 calls opening $25 to $27.
11/9/20 Visa (V) with 4,000 March $210 puts sold to open for $11.80 today in a stock replacement
11/9/20 MasterCard (MA) with 1150 April $355 calls active with buyers today near $24

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 12:20 Stock Review – Mega Caps/Software: AMZN, MSFT, ADBE, NFLX, GOOGL, CRM, TSLA, NOW, IGV (ETF), NET, ZEN, DDOG
4) 17:30 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical Related: BTAI, CCXI, TCON, TPTX, SWTX, KALV, NVCR, TWST, GH, NVTA, PSNL, NARI
5) 24:00 Stock Review – Semis/General Commentary: QRVO, AMD, NVDA, SMH (ETF), REGI
6) 26:10 Current Setups – NIU, AN, CRNC
7) 27:40 Conclusion/Summary