Over the past few months, I have discussed my bullish case and reminded members to stick to the trend for the following reasons: The Fed, little distribution, the major indexes are above their key moving averages, and the leaders are acting well. I mentioned that if I notice any of these factors change while doing my nightly/weekly chart work, I will pass along those warning signs in these videos. Right now, there are definitely some warning signs showing up such as more distribution days and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closing slightly below their 10-weeks. However, things that are keeping me positive on this market include the Fed, and many stocks that I mentioned in last weekend’s video were up 5-20% this week. You can really see this in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 which showed strong “risk on” accumulation this week.

Whenever there are conflicting signs in the market, I will always lean towards being defensive and encourage lighter than normal positions until we get a clearer picture. Over the next week or two, we could see added volatility for the following reasons: End of the quarter portfolio rebalancing, mutual fund positioning, normal profit taking, the Jewish holidays, the news cycle, and more IPOs (supply) coming to market. These are all discussed in this video. Although I am expecting more volatility, I wouldn’t get too negative on this market because I still think the overall market is strong and that we will see more upside in the fourth quarter. 90% of what I use to judge the health of the market is the price action of stocks. As long as stocks continue to act well and we see normal sector rotation, I will remain constructive on this market. Of course, if conditions get worse, I will reduce exposure. Again, it’s best to have some cash and keep positions light until we get through the next week or two and get a clearer picture. If you have any questions, you can ask me during the next webinar which will be on Sunday, September 20th at 7PM EST. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Unusual Option Activity:
9/18/20 Peloton (PTON) with 1650 April $95 calls being bought today up to $16.60
9/18/20 Lemonade (LMND) with 1,250 October $50 puts sold to open $2.35 to $2.25 this morning
9/18/20 Sea Limited (SE) buyer of the October 2nd (W) $160 calls for $2.35, 760X
9/18/20 Nio (NIO) with 20,000 September $17 calls rolling to October $19 calls that open around $2.25
9/18/20 Amazon (AMZN) 200 Oct 9th (W) $3000 calls opening, $2.5M
9/18/20 ICAD (ICAD) with 1000 November $10 calls bought $2.50 to $2.60 today to open, a $250M provider of healthcare services in both cancer detection and therapy. ICAD shares working out of a big multi-month wedge above $11 this week with room back to $15+
9/17/20 Zillow (Z) buyers in Oct $100 calls up to $3.60 800X
9/17/20 Tesla (TSLA) size buys of 1170 January $530 calls into early weakness with 1350 in OI, over $8M, shares rallying off lows
9/17/20 Peloton (PTON) seeing buys 1185 April $95 calls into early 21 MA test, spot where 1,490 are in OI from accumulation this week
9/17/20 Spotify (SPOT) Oct $270 calls w/ buyer flow 1000X
9/17/20 Digital Turbine (APPS) buyers of near 1,000 January $40 calls into weakness here paying $3.95 to $4.30
9/17/20 Digital Turbine (APPS) pulled back after strong two day run but held the 8 MA and seeing 2370 Oct $40 OTM calls active with buyers
9/17/20 JD.com (JD) with 1200 January $65 puts sold to open $3.90
9/17/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) more call buying with 1265 November $80 calls at $7.25
9/17/20 Taiwan Semi (TSM) now with 1900 October 2nd (W) $86 calls bought for $1.18
9/17/20 Veeva (VEEV) with 360 January 2022 $250 calls opening for $1.9M as more September roll to Jan 2022
9/17/20 Veeva (VEEV) working on hammer reversal with the bullish Jan. 2022 call buys last two days, also today 1000 of the Jan. 2022 $190 puts sold to open $16.50 to $15.90
9/17/20 Seattle Genetics (SGEN) with 750 October $180 calls bought for $6.70 as the September $170 calls from June adjust higher and out
9/17/20 Apple (AAPL) with 6000 Oct. 30th (W) $112 puts sold to open earlier this morning at $7.80
9/17/20 Netflix (NFLX) Oct $510/$525 call spreads opening 1100X earlier today
9/17/20 Google (GOOG) seeing 550 August 2021 $2200 OTM calls bought near $22 this afternoon, over $1.2M
9/17/20 Semiconductor ETF (SMH) with 2000 November $165 puts sold to open $8.45 this afternoon

Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:35 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Russell 2000)
3) 14:00 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, NFLX, PYPL, FB, AAPL, ADBE, CRM, TSLA, NVDA
4) 22:20 Stock Review – Software: COUP, DOCU, FSLY, APPS, FVRR, CRM, ZM, CRWD, SE, BAND, SAIL, NOW, VEEV, DDOG
5) 28:10 Stock Review – Housing Related: KBH, LEN, MTH, LGIH, XHB (ETF), ITB (ETF)
6) 31:30 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical/Genomics: IBB, SGEN, BTAI, IDYA, ICAD, AQST, HZNP, PSTI, RACA, TXG, NVTA, GH, ADPT, PSNL, OTRK, IRTC, TWST, NEO, NTRA, CSTL, NARI, SWAV, PACB, ARKG (ETF)
7) 43:50 General Ideas/Commentary: WKHS, DKNG, PENN, CRNC, NIO, MRVL, TSM, NEM, NVCR, CHGG, Z, EAT, LB, GTLS
8) 49:50 Current Setups – (half positions) SGEN, ADPT, CRWD, GH, NVTA
9) 51:00 Conclusion/Summary