Longer-term, I am still bullish for all the reasons I’ve discussed in recent videos. If you are looking for a quick summary, the reasons are listed in the article I wrote for Yahoo Finance two weeks ago (see link below). Short-term, I am little conflicted because the main positives are 1) The incredible resilience of this market 2) We are heading into a week before a holiday (Labor Day) which tends to trend to the upside and 3) The beginning of the month tends to see strong money flows from 401k money coming into the market. The main negatives are 1) The Nasdaq Composite is extended from its 21-day EMA and 2) Although there is very little distribution, the weekly charts show we are grinding higher on lighter volume. The way I reconcile this is to maintain a cash position. I am currently 60% invested for my clients. That way, if we pullback, I will hopefully not get hit as bad and have some cash available to put to work at key support levels, and if we grind higher, I will still hopefully participate because I am concentrated in many of the true market leaders (NVDA, AMZN, TSLA to name a few). If you have any questions about the video, please email me or ask them during the next Webinar on Sunday, August 30th, at 7PM EST. Thank you!
Yahoo Finance interview from 8/28 and the article I wrote two weeks ago is included below the video: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stock-market-higher-into-presidential-election-152850993.html?
Unusual Option Activity:
8/28/20 Netflix (NFLX) buyer here of 1,700 December $530 calls for $57.75 to open, $9.8M; NFLX also with 1,600 October 2nd (W) $530 calls bought $29.25 to open, $4.68M
8/28/20 Google (GOOG) this afternoon with a buyer of 1,300 December $1,640 calls for $138.73, the October 2nd (W) $1640 calls 1300X for $73.03, and the November $1,640 calls 1600X for $125.23, over $47M in premium between the three
8/28/20 Visa (V) buyer of the March $250 calls today for $5.10 to $5.60, over 1850X
8/28/20 Apple (AAPL) with another 4,000 November $600 calls bought today for $16.95 to $17.00 and spread vs the $750 calls which are sold 8,000X for $5.55 to $5.60
8/28/20 Apple (AAPL) also with the October $600/$750 call spread being bought 3,500X
8/28/20 Apple (AAPL) also with 1,250 September 2022 $1,000 calls bought between $25.50 and $26
8/28/20 Amazon (AMZN) buyer of 950 November $3,400 calls for $319.75, the December $3,420 calls 900X for $344.70, and the October 2nd (W) $3,425 calls 800X for $169.50, total of around $70M in premium for the three
8/28/20 Peloton (PTON) opening sale of 1,000 January 2022 $45 puts for $7.95 today with earnings upcoming
8/28/20 Coupa Software (COUP) buyer of 500 January 2022 $400 calls for $47.75 today to open, $2.3M trade
8/28/20 RingCentral (RNG) buyers of the September 25th (W) $300 calls today from $13.40 to $14.10
8/28/20 Rocket Co (RKT) with 1,000 ITM October $29 puts sold to open today for $6, continues to see bullish flow near every session
8/28/20 Nvdia (NVDA) with 2,000 ITM September $470 calls bought up to $51.60
8/28/20 Tesla (TSLA) protective spread into strength sells 2,280 December $2500 calls for $337.70 and buys the November $2200 puts for $342.50, likely collaring stock
8/28/20 Roku (ROKU) breaking out today and size buyers of the November $175 calls over 1,365X from $23.90 to $24.50, over $3.3M
8/28/20 Roku (ROKU) with 2,500 September $200 calls bought up to $3
8/27/20 Zillow (Z) with 1,000 January $115 calls bought for $3.85 to $4.05 to open, continues to see bullish flow after earnings
8/27/20 Amazon (AMZN) buyer of three different call spreads late to open with the September 25th (W) $3440/$4000 bought 595X for $126, the February $3400/$4000 bought 900X for $221 and the November $3400/$4000 bought 900X for $207
8/27/20 Microsoft (MSFT) with 20,000 November $265 calls bought for $6.25, rolling up the $235 calls
8/27/20 Adobe (ADBE) opening sellers today of 1,125 January $290 puts down to $5, saw a big October call spread bought yesterday into earnings in mid-September
8/27/20 Salesforce (CRM) with the September 25th (W) 267.50/$320 call spreads bought 3800X for $13 and also the February $270/$320 call spread bought 5400X for $19.10
8/27/20 Visa (V) with the October $215 calls bought 1,615X for $6 as some weekly calls adjust up and out
Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 1:30 Market Commentary
3) 8:00 Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Russell 2000)
4) 20:55 Stock Review – Mega Caps: AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, ADBE, CRM, AAPL, QQQ (ETF)
5) 27:45 Stock Review – Software: FSLY, DDOG, ZM, ZS, BAND, COUP, CRWD, DT, APPS, RNG, VEEV
6) 34:35 Stock Review – Semiconductors: NVDA, AMD, SWKS, TER, MRVL, SMH (ETF)
7) 36:25 Stock Review – General Ideas/Commentary: BABA, JD, PDD, LVGO, TDOC, CALX, CRNC, FLGT, PENN, PSTI, Z, V, MA, PYPL, SQ, CHGG, OLLI, EBAY, PGNY, DG, IDXX
8) 45:30 Current Setups – SHOP, NFLX, SWKS, PYPL, CRL
9) 47:10 Conclusion/Summary