Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:45 Market Commentary and Index Review
3) 12:20 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: UFO (ETF), PL, BKSY, FLY, LUNR, RDW, ASTS, RKLB, VSAT, GE, HWM, WWD
4) 17:45 Stock Review – Semiconductors and Data Storage: SMH (ETF), NVDA, AVGO, TSM, ARM, MXL, KLAC, AMAT, VECO, ICHR, MRVL, UCTT, TER, TSEM, CRDO, MTSI, Q, MU, STX, WDC, SNDK
5) 25:05 Stock Review – Electronic/Energy/Data Center related: LITE, COHR, GLW, JBL, VRT, TTMI, POWL, BE, GEV, HUT, SIMO, FLEX, ATI, BHE
6) 29:05 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical: XBI (ETF), IBB (ETF), EWTX, IMVT, ARWR, RYTM, GH, NTRA, BLLN, ARKG (ETF), LQDA, URGN, VCYT, AXSM, PCVX
7) 32:25 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: URI, CGNX, HNGE, DELL, NBIS, CRWV, WYFI, ALAB, STRL, SPHR, DOCN, FROG, CRWD, SNOW, GOOGL
8) 37:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
Coming into this past week, I mentioned that we tend to see seasonal strength during the last few days of June until approximately mid-July. The good news is that we saw it in the indexes last week, as the Nasdaq Composite was up +2.12% for the week and S&P 500 was up +1.76%. The bad news is that we saw very poor price action in many growth stocks. In this video, I discuss how we are seeing divergences in many indexes and sectors. For example, the Dow Jones closed at a new high but the Nasdaq Composite closed slightly below its 50-day moving average. For the week, the Software sector (IGV) was up nicely, but the Semiconductors (SMH) were down. The Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) closed at a new high but the Mag 7 ETF (MAGS) has been struggling year-to-date. In addition, I point out the 6 distribution days for the Nasdaq Composite over the past 12 trading days.
So, what does all this mean? I am going to be defensive until I get a clearer picture. I realize that this is a seasonally strong period, but I also have to manage risk and stick to my rules. Regarding the recent sector rotation, I don’t chase it. I can’t keep up with the machines and I’m also a growth manager. If you would like exposure to some of the sectors that have been acting better recently, you are more than welcome to use sector ETFs and I review some examples in this video. I don’t do this because it’s not my style. Again, do what works for you. For me, it’s defense until the price action in growth stocks improves and I see the selling and volatility calm down. As always, manage your trades, your position sizes, and your investment levels as best as possible based on your timeframe and risk tolerance. I can give guidelines, but ultimately, you need to make decisions on what’s best for your overall investment plan. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next LIVE webinar, which will be this Saturday, July 11th at 11AM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend.
Unusual Options Activity:
7/2/26 Tesla (TSLA) bull risk reversal sold 1500 Jan 2028 $370 puts and bought the $570 calls for a net credit
7/2/26 Lowe’s (LOW) 5460 August $195 short puts opened for $2.03
7/2/26 McDonald’s (MCD) 1500 July 24th (W) $280 calls bought for $950K
7/2/26 Disney (DIS) buyer 1150 Dec $100 calls $7.95
7/2/26 Reddit (RDDT) buyers of 2000 August $220 calls
7/2/26 Biogen (BIIB) buyer 400 June 2027 $220 calls $34.80 to $35
7/2/26 Abivax (ABVX) 1500 August $125 short puts open $6.60
7/2/26 Abivax (ABVX) also buyers in August $175/$200 call spreads 1500X
7/2/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 2000 Jan 2028 $90 short puts opening $32.40 and also Dec 2028 $75 short puts active
7/2/26 Planet Labs (PL) buyer 2000 August $40 calls $2.45 offer
7/2/26 Union Pacific (UNP) buyer 1000 Dec $330 calls $6.75 to $7.10
7/2/26 CSX Corp (CSX) buyer 800 Jan 2028 $47.50 calls for $8.50
7/2/26 Dow Chemical (DOW) opening sale 3000 Jan 2028 $27.5 puts for $5.95
7/2/26 Google (GOOGL) buyer 4000 Oct $430 calls 7.70 to 7.90
7/2/26 Amazon (AMZN) buyers of 6000 Oct $300 calls 4.80 offer
7/2/26 Meta (META) buyer 2000 Oct $720 calls $14.60 offer
7/2/26 Microsoft (MSFT) buyer 1500 Oct $405/$460 call spreads
7/2/26 Broadcom (AVGO) 2000 Oct $470 calls bought 10.10 to 10.50
7/2/26 Qualcomm (QCOM) 1000 Dec $250/$140 bull risk reversals opened for a 1.50 credit
7/2/26 Qnity Electronics (Q) large buy 5500 Oct $170/$210 call spreads
7/2/26 Corning (GLW) 2000 Dec $200 puts sold to open $43.10 and lower
7/2/26 Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) with 1000 each August and Sept $115 puts sold to open, over $2.1M each contract in premium
7/2/26 Coherent (COHR) size opening sale 500 Nov $330 puts $75.15
7/1/26 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 5000 Dec $785 calls buy at $18.22 and sold 5000 Dec 2027 $545 puts at $13.73 for bull spreads
7/1/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 3000 June 2027 $320 calls bought at $21.53 and sells the $280 puts at $14.51 in bull r/r
7/1/26 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) opening seller of 1000 March $400 puts at $20.30
7/1/26 Biotech ETF (XBI) opening seller of 1200 June 2027 $150 puts at $14 as the $120 short puts adjust
7/1/26 Energy ETF (XLE) buyer of 15,000 Dec $54 calls at $3.25
7/1/26 Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) buyer of 3500 Sept $165 calls for $4.75
7/1/26 Mag 7 ETF (MAGS) opening sellers of 2000 Dec $58 puts at $2.15
7/1/26 Tesla (TSLA) Aug 7th $470 calls bought over 6000x at $10 to $11
7/1/26 Walmart (WMT) 17,350 Aug $100 puts sell to open $1.68 as July $110 short puts roll out
7/1/26 Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) buyers of 3000 Jan $110 calls at $5.10 to $5.80
7/1/26 Coca Cola (KO) opening sale of 1800 Oct $77.50 puts at $1.71
7/1/26 Novo Nordisk (NVO) buyer of 2200 Oct $55 calls at $2.28
7/1/26 Tarsus Pharma (TARS) opening sale of 3000 Oct $55 puts at $5.80
7/1/26 Abivax (ABVX) opening sales of 1200 July $135 puts $7.20 to $6.50
7/1/26 Abivax (ABVX) buyer 4400 August $160 calls at $6.40 as July $130 calls adjust
7/1/26 NRG Energy (NRG) buyer 3300 July $150/$170 call spreads
7/1/26 Archer-Daniels (ADM) buyer of 645 March $77.50/$85 call spreads
7/1/26 Cameco (CCJ) opening seller 13,000 Aug 7th $80 puts $0.69
7/1/26 XOP (XPO) opening sales of 3300 August $160 puts at $2 to $1.95
7/1/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) buyers of 800 July 31st $102 calls at $10.56 as July 24th $87 calls adjust
7/1/26 Google (GOOGL) buyers of 5000 Dec $250 ITM calls at $119.70
7/1/26 Meta (META) buyers of 6300 Aug $730 calls at $10 as the $720 calls adjust
7/1/26 Datadog (DDOG) buyers of 600 Oct $360 far OTM calls at $14.35
7/1/26 Fortinet (FTNT) opening sale 650 August $155 puts at $13.70
7/1/26 Cognex (CGNX) more buyers of 2700 Aug $95 calls at $1.70 to $1.90
7/1/26 NetApp (NTAP) buyers of 1400 August $165 calls at $7 to $7.70
7/1/26 NetApp (NTAP) buyers 850 Sept $165 calls at $13 to $14
7/1/26 Dell (DELL) buyers of 2400 Sept $410 calls at $75.67 selling $450 calls in spreads, adjusting $400 calls
7/1/26 Nebius Group (NBIS) buyer of 1000 Nov $350/$380 call spreads
7/1/26 Nvidia (NVDA) 3000 Sept 2027 $300/$450 call spreads bought
7/1/26 Intel (INTC) buyer of 1200 Oct $165/$180 call spreads at $3.16
7/1/26 Qualcomm (QCOM) opening seller of 1500 Jan 2028 $210 puts at $68.80
7/1/26 Lam Research (LRCX) buyer 800 July $430 calls at $15.55 offer
7/1/26 Micron (MU) 5626 July 31st $595 short puts open at $4.59
7/1/26 Sandisk (SNDK) opening seller 1434 July 31st $935 puts $7.10