Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review
3) 9:55 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: XAR (ETF), SHLD (ETF), UFO (ETF), RKLB, ASTS, PL, BKSY, VSAT, GSAT, SATL, LUNR, SATS, FLY, WWD
4) 16:15 Stock Review – Semiconductors and Data Storage: SMH (ETF), NVDA, TSM, KLAC, AMAT, TSEM, AEIS, TER, MTSI, Q, MU, STX, WDC, SNDK
5) 20:40 Stock Review – Electronic/Energy/Data Center related: LITE, JBL, VRT, GEV, CIEN, GLW, AAOI, AXTI, MOD, CLS, POWL
6) 24:40 Stock Review – Biotech/Medical: XBI (ETF), MRK, EWTX, PCVX, CGON, CAPR, GRCE, NKTR, GPCR, DNTH, UTHR, PAHC, ORKA, TYRA, SYRE
7) 31:20 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: DVN, TDW, XOM, ALB, DELL, NBIS, SPHR
8) 35:10 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In this video, I discuss the importance of the 21-day EMA (exponential moving average). It works as great support during power trends, but it’s also an area of strong resistance during downtrends. I bring it up now for two reasons: 1) We are currently right below that level on the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500. Over the next week or two, I will be watching if we can get a follow through day above this level. 2) If we do get above the 21-day, I will observing if we can HOLD above it and focusing on some of the strongest stocks on our watch list. Many of these stocks have shown great relative strength during this recent correction and have a high probability of success if we see a new uptrend, even if it’s only for six weeks during earnings season.
As always, the decisions you make should be based on your OWN timeframe, your risk tolerance, and your overall investment objectives. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next LIVE webinar, which will be this Monday, April 6th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the remainder of your weekend.
Unusual Options Activity:
4/2/26 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyers of 2500x 5000x Sept $645/$670 call ratios
4/2/26 Ultra QQQ ETF (TQQQ) Jan $34 puts sell to open 1000x at $6.10
4/2/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 3000 March 2027 $260 calls $22.90
4/2/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also 5000 March $235 short puts opened as Dec 230 adjust
4/2/26 Semiconductors ETF (SMH) 5000 May $395 calls bought
4/2/26 Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) 2000 Jan 2028 $52 short puts open at $5.25
4/2/26 Gold ETF (GLD) 7500 July $325 short puts opening 3.37
4/2/26 Tesla (TSLA) buyers 2000 Dec $580 calls 12.30 to 12.50
4/2/26 Home Depot (HD) opening sale 2785 June $295 puts at $9.30 as May $315 adjust short puts
4/2/26 Restaurant Brands (QSR) buyers of 1200 May $75 calls at $4.00 to $4.27
4/2/26 Spotify (SPOT) 250 June 2027 $650 calls buy at $53.50
4/2/26 Blackstone (BX) 500 Oct $95 short puts opening $8 to $7.65
4/2/26 Blackstone (BX) opening sales of 1000 March $115 puts at $19.50
4/2/26 Devon Energy (DVN) buyer 2000 April 49 calls 1.82
4/2/26 Williams Cos (WMB) June $75 calls bought 3000X against sales of the $65 puts in bull r/r
4/2/26 Petrobras (PBR) 4600 Oct $15 short puts open for 0.62
4/2/26 US Rare Earth (USAR) buyer of 7000 Sept $31 calls at $1.08 offer
4/2/26 Insmed (INSM) buyer of 1000 May $165/$210 call spreads for $9.40
4/2/26 Ascendis Pharma (ASND) buyer of 950 May $260 calls for $6.20
4/2/26 Kodiak Sciences (KOD) buyer of 350 Sept $45 calls 8.50 to 9.00
4/2/26 Firefly Aerospace (FLY) buyers 600 July $32 calls at $7.27
4/2/26 Firefly Aerospace (FLY) 2500 May $45 calls buy 1.50
4/2/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) size put sale as 10,000 June $65 sell to open $9.90
4/2/26 AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) 8200 June $90 puts sell to open $15.80, similar to RKLB trade
4/2/26 Planet Labs (PL) 500 Oct $50 calls buy 6.65
4/2/26 Intuitive Machines (LUNR) 1000 May 18 calls bought 5.30 to 5.40
4/2/26 Globalstar (GSAT) buyer 1000 May 80/90 call spreads for $4
4/2/26 Satellogic (SATL) buyers 3000 Jan $10 calls 1.75 to 1.95
4/2/26 Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) buyer 3000 May 14/17 call spreads for 0.71
4/2/26 Apple (AAPL) opening sales 1800 Oct $215 puts $8.15
4/2/26 Nokia (NOK) 10,000 Sept 10/15 call spreads buy to open 0.54
4/2/26 HP Enterprise (HPE) bull flow keeps coming seeing 3900 June $25 calls buying
4/2/26 Nebius Group (NBIS) next week buyers of 3500 $105 calls at $5.35 to $5.60
4/2/26 Nebius Group (NBIS) buyer 1400 July $155 calls for $6.74
4/2/26 CoreWeave (CRWV) 425 Nov $80 short puts open 19.90 to 19.85
4/2/26 CoreWeave (CRWV) buyer 1500 June 90 calls for 10.37 and sells April 70 puts 1.57
4/2/26 CoreWeave (CRWV) 500 Oct $65 short puts opening $11.20 to $11
4/2/26 Nvidia (NVDA) buyer of 3500 Oct $210/$240 call spreads at $5.80
4/2/26 Google (GOOGL) 2500 Oct 180 short puts open at 2.05
4/2/26 Meta (META) 1000 Jan $490 short puts open $38.65
4/2/26 Broadcom (AVGO) buyer 400 Oct $330/$400 call spreads as June spreads adjust
4/2/26 KLA (KLAC) 370 May 1040 short puts open 11.16
4/2/26 Tower Semi (TSEM) May $195 calls bought 2500X
4/2/26 Tower Semi (TSEM) buyers of 2500 May 22nd (W) $190 calls, $14M premium combined with the May 195 buys
4/2/26 AXT (AXTI) May $50 calls are buying 3250X $10.30 to $11
4/2/26 SanDisk (SNDK) opening seller of 500 Feb $500 puts at $120
4/2/26 Fabrinet (FN) 100 Nov $490 short puts opening for nearly $1M
4/2/26 Taiwan Semi (TSM) large opening sales of 9800 Oct $250 puts at $18.50 to $18 bid
4/1/26 S&P 500 ETF (SPY) buyer 4100 April 30th $673 calls at $6.85 as the $663 calls adjust
4/1/26 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 6000 May 1st (W) $260 calls buy 4.41
4/1/26 Ultra QQQ ETF (TQQQ) buyer 5000 Jan 2028 $43 calls $15.45
4/1/26 Ultra QQQ ETF (TQQQ) 1100 Jan 37 short puts open 7 to 6.65
4/1/26 Financials ETF (XLF) 10K Jan 2028 $44 puts sell to open $3.05
4/1/26 Tesla (TSLA) size buyers of May $370 and $375 calls
4/1/26 Tesla Bull 1.5X (TSLL) buyers in Sept $16 calls 5000X near 1.68
4/1/26 Netflix (NFLX) buyer of the Jan 108/128 call ratio 4000X8000 for small debit
4/1/26 Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) buyer 300 Jan $115 ITM calls at $30.60 to $31.30
4/1/26 EQT (EQT) opening seller 11,000 May $50 puts at $0.43
4/1/26 Expand Energy (EXE) sees 12K May $90 puts selling at $0.90 to $0.70
4/1/26 Chevron (CVX) 1700 April 24th (W) 205 calls bought 3.15 offer
4/1/26 Cameco (CCJ) opening sales of 500 Dec $105 puts at $15.88 to $15.75,
4/1/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) 1650 April 24th (W) $60 calls bought $10.70
4/1/26 Rocket Lab (RKLB) opening seller 7850 May $70 puts at $9.55
4/1/26 AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) massive opening sale of 8000 May $85 puts for $11.85
4/1/26 Karman Holdings (KRMN) buyer 1250 May $95 calls $3.50
4/1/26 EchoStar (SATS) opening sale 2800 Dec $175 calls at $11.45
4/1/26 Ondas (ONDS) buyers 3800 Jan $27 calls 0.67 offer
4/1/26 Google (GOOGL) size buyers of 5500 May $295 calls 18.25 to 18.80
4/1/26 Dell (DELL) opening sale 4000 June $170 puts at $16.90
4/1/26 Dell (DELL) also 1000 July $160 puts selling to open $14.20
4/1/26 Nebius Group (NBIS) 1100 May 1st (W) $110 calls buy 7.85 offer
4/1/26 CoreWeave (CRWV) 2250 Oct $55 short puts opening near $7.2
4/1/26 Marvell Tech (MRVL) 2000 April $108 calls buy $3.95
4/1/26 Advanced Micro (AMD) 5000 May 8th (W) $150 short puts open 1.36
4/1/26 Amazon (AMZN) 1000 Oct $185 short puts open 10.46
4/1/26 Amazon (AMZN) 3000 August $165 puts sell to open for $4.31 and buys 3000 May $240 calls for $2.70 in bull r/r
4/1/26 Micron (MU) buyers 1000 Oct $640 calls at $18.25 offers
4/1/26 Micron (MU) 600 Dec 2028 $250 calls buy at $195 to $203
4/1/26 SanDisk (SNDK) buyers of 1100 May $700 calls at $96 to $104
4/1/26 Fabrinet (FN) 450 May $540 short puts open for $63
Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) on 3/31 with some sneaky but notable sized buys in January 2028 $30 and $32 calls with 1500 combined contracts and around $2.3M in call premium purchased. CAPR has 6,460 January 2028 $7 deep ITM calls sitting in open interest, a 12/3 buyer of 3000 January $30 calls, a 3/11 buyer of 1500 June $40 calls and April $25 and $30 long calls in open interest. CAPR short interest is at 12% of the float and down from above 30% when it surged higher in December. Shares are holding up well in 2026 at +5.5% consolidating that large move and making higher lows, a strong candle on 3/31 off support and a strong coiled look on the chart. CAPR September options are pricing in a 65-70% move.
Capricor (CAPR) is a high‑risk, late‑stage biotech now centered on deramiocel (CAP‑1002) for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), with a first‑in‑class Phase 3 win and an August 2026 PDUFA date, plus an early but well‑funded exosome platform (StealthX) for vaccines and oligo delivery. Deramiocel is an allogeneic cardiosphere‑derived cell therapy aimed at preserving skeletal and cardiac muscle function in boys and young men with DMD. The drug met its primary endpoint (Performance of Upper Limb, PUL v2.0) with p=0.03 and the key secondary endpoint (left ventricular ejection fraction, LVEF) with p=0.04, showing benefit on both upper‑limb function and cardiac function. The safety profile remained favorable and consistent with prior HOPE‑2 and long‑term extension data. Capricor has aligned with FDA on using HOPE‑3 to address prior issues. Capricor has now resubmitted to FDA; the Biologics License Application is under review with a PDUFA date of August 22, 2026 as the major catalyst this year.
DMD prevalence in the US is roughly 16–17k patients, and about 30k across the US+EU5+Japan. Cardiomyopathy is a core DMD complication. EU5 has roughly 5,500 non‑ambulant DMD patients, and non‑ambulant cohorts are at particularly high risk of cardiac involvement.
StealthX is a proprietary exosome technology for loading and delivering siRNA, PMO oligonucleotides, proteins, and small molecules. 2025 data showed a scalable, reproducible loading method for siRNA and PMOs into exosomes, highlighting potential in neuromuscular and other genetic diseases. The exosome platform is early‑stage and pre‑revenue, but offers optionality in vaccines and targeted oligo delivery if safety and efficacy hold up in human studies.
CAPR has a $1.75B market cap and trades 5.5X Cash. Commercially, deramiocel targets a serious, high‑value rare disease (DMD with cardiac involvement), and Capricor has a partnership with Nippon Shinyaku (maker of Viltolarsen) that could support global commercialization if approved. Nippon Shinyaku has an exon skipper called Viltepso already on the US market and possesses an established sales force, market access, and medical affairs teams. The company is actively working with Capricor to prepare Deramiocel for market launch. Under the Nippon Shinyaku partnership, Capricor stands to receive $80 million at approval plus an additional $605 million in milestone payments based on revenue thresholds. The company will receive 30% to 50% of revenue split from Nippon Shinyaku, less the cost of the product. Management expects to price Deramiocel “at or above current exon skipping therapies, which are north of $1 million a year.” Capricor qualifies for a Priority Review Voucher (PRV), which the company retains full rights to, with recent sales of such vouchers reaching $205 million. The company owns and controls its own manufacturing facility in San Diego and has begun expansion efforts. Management expressed confidence that payers will be very willing to cover Deramiocel based on its strong, statistically significant results in cardiac function improvement and its ability to be used alongside dystrophinopathy-modulating therapeutics.
Breaking down the CAPR catalyst upside: A realistic medium‑term treated pool is on the order of 4,000–7,000 patients globally, with upside if use drifts earlier in the disease course. On pricing, deramiocel is a chronic, high‑touch cell therapy for a severe rare disease and high-end rare‑disease biologics often price in the $300k–$500k per year range. So a credible peak‑sales band for deramiocel, if the launch is successful and adoption extends across US+EU+Japan, is roughly $1–3B, with ~$1–1.5B a defensible “base” and $2B+ an upside scenario. Here, with positive Phase 3 and BLA accepted, a 60–70% probability of approval is a fair working number. On timing, peak is unlikely before year 6–8 post‑launch given orphan launch dynamics, payer negotiations, EU/Japan labels, and capacity scale‑up. That would put peak around 2032–2034. Rare‑disease therapies with solid IP and long duration frequently trade around 3–6× peak sales at maturity, sometimes higher for gene therapies with long exclusivity or broader platforms. Putting all this together, if successful, CAPR could demand a valuation of $3B to $6B over time.
Management plans to pursue Becker muscular dystrophy (BMD) as an indication expansion opportunity, which is wholly owned by Capricor. The company plans to approach the FDA during labeling conversations in early 2026 and conduct a pre-IND meeting to explain the similarity between BMD and DMD pathophysiology. Management’s goal is to leverage the clinical work already completed for DMD to support BMD development.
Roth is expecting an AdComm meeting in Q2 and Deramiocel approval by the PDUFA date of August 22, 2026 given the agent’s first-in-class potential and the opportunity to treat both cardiac and skeletal function improvements in DMD patients. Piper has a $58 target and notes the label could include the broad Duchenne muscular dystrophy population, not just DMD cardiomyopathy. OpCo with a $54 target believes deramiocel’s clinical profile stands second to none relative to approved Duchenne muscular dystrophy therapeutics, and its projected 2031 sales of about $1.1B in the U.S. alone through partner NS Pharma may prove conservative.
Grace Therapeutics (GRCE) is a very small Biotech that saw an unusual late day options trade picked up by the Hawk Scanner being developed. The unusual IV structure allowed the trader to put on 1000 August/November $5 call calendar spreads at nearly zero cost. GRCE shares are 40% higher YTD and reaching 3 year highs while short interest is minimal at 2% of the float.
Grace Therapeutics is a late‑stage, orphan‑disease biopharma whose value is dominated by one near‑term FDA asset (GTx‑104 for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage), making it essentially a binary‑ish small‑cap PDUFA trade with follow‑on pipeline optionality. Grace focuses on rare and orphan neurologic diseases, using reformulation and nanoparticle delivery to improve existing drugs (faster onset, IV delivery, fewer dosing issues). Lead asset GTx‑104 is an IV formulation of nimodipine for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), where current oral/NG nimodipine has absorption and dosing challenges in critically ill patients. GTx‑104 has Orphan Drug Designation (7 years US exclusivity post‑approval) and new IP (dosing regimen patents) that could extend protection to 2043. A second program, GTx‑102, is an oral mucosal spray for ataxia‑telangiectasia (A‑T), another ultra‑rare, pediatric neurodegenerative disease with no approved treatments yet.
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage is described as a rare disease with high mortality and morbidity, where a third of patients do not survive and a third end up with long-term morbidity. The disease strikes suddenly and requires immediate treatment at academic medical centers or comprehensive stroke centers. The DRG reimbursement rate for aSAH is one of the highest for critical care illness, tipping in at over $0.5 million, reflecting the complexity and resource intensity of treating these patients. The company identified a serviceable market of approximately 60% of the 45,000 annual aSAH cases in the US, consisting of higher-grade patients (Grades 3, 4, and 5) who are intubated and cannot swallow, as well as lower-grade patients who cannot tolerate oral formulations. Management’s long-term vision is to position GTx-104 as the standard of care for all aSAH patients during their ICU stay, emphasizing a “set it and forget it” paradigm based on the drug’s hemodynamic stability, exposure reliability, and ICU workload management benefits.
GRCE has a market cap of just $75M and trades 4X Cash. The FDA accepted the NDA for GTx‑104 and set a PDUFA target date of April 23, 2026. Positive Phase 3 STRIVE‑ON safety data in aSAH have been presented, and the NDA is focused on showing GTx‑104 can match or improve on oral nimodipine with more reliable ICU delivery. Grace Therapeutics’ competitive advantage lies in its novel aqueous formulation that addresses the clinical limitations of existing oral and previously attempted intravenous formulations.
The company is pursuing a stepwise commercialization approach targeting 250 hospitals that treat the majority of aSAH patients. Within this universe, the company is hyper-focused on the 25 to 30 STRIVE-ON trial sites during the initial 8 to 12 months post-launch to convert early adopters and generate case studies and peer-to-peer communications. The company has launched two major continuing medical education events in December that trained 10,000 learners including neuro intensivists, critical care physicians, nurses, and pharmacists. Additionally, the company launched a non-branded disease awareness website (aSAH in focus.com) and presented data at the US Neurocritical Care Society Medical Congress in the fall, with additional presentations planned at the Society of Critical Care Medicine and American Association of Neuroscience Nurses conferences in late March.