Topics covered:
1) 0:00 Announcements
2) 0:30 Market Commentary and Index Review (Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Russell 2000)
3) 19:25 FOCUS LIST: NVDA, META, NFLX, PLTR, GEV, RKLB, UBER
4) 24:25 Stock Review – Aerospace/Defense: SHLD (ETF), XAR (ETF), HWM, KTOS, DRS, GE, AVAV, CW, ASTS, JOBY, BKSY, PL, ATRO
5) 28:30 Stock Review – Software: IGV (ETF), NBIS, ORCL, RBRK, CRWD, CYBR, TWLO, SNOW, VEEV, DOMO, APP, NET, U
6) 32:35 Stock Review – Semiconductors: SMH (ETF), TSM, AVGO, ARM, MU, KLAC, TTMI, CLS, JBL, FN, SANM, AMSC, CRDO, COHR, ALAB, LASR
7) 36:45 Stock Review – Energy/Data Center related: VST, CEG, VRT, NRG, WWD, BE, OKLO, SMR, NNE
8) 39:10 Stock Review – Others/General Ideas/Commentary: SPOT, EQT, BROS, HNGE, COIN, ATI, SHAK, IONQ, ARQQ, SHOP, DASH, HOOD, RBLX, GILD, RDDT, MP, IBIT
9) 45:40 Conclusion/Summary
Market Summary:
In this video, I summarize the Market Commentary section into five points: 1) Shorter-term, keep your expectations realistic. As I’ve discussed in recent videos, I’m expecting a normal pullback/consolidation over the next two months. 2) Longer-term, we’re still in a bull market powered by AI. The main thing I would like to stress from these first two points is to know your timeframe. 3) Actively managing a portfolio of stocks is not easy. It involves putting in the work, patience, discipline, and mental toughness. It’s not for everyone. If you are going to do it, please accept that you will never get the highs or the lows. Learn to make decisions and be ok with them. 4) I discuss some of Stanley Druckenmiller’s style and how I try to step on the gas during the power trends, and reduce exposure when I don’t see the greatest risk/reward. 5) I review over the past 5 years when the market has gapped down below its 21-day after being 2-3 months into a powertrend and examples of what happened afterwards.
From here, I’m going to keep my positions light and wait patiently for better entry points. One thing I would like to stress is please don’t get too bearish. I’m not expecting a major decline from here, especially because we just had a 20% decline earlier this year. I’m simply going to pay attention to relative strength and update you in these videos when anything important shows up. If you have any questions, you can ask them during the next LIVE webinar, which will be this Monday, August 4th at 7PM EST. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Unusual Options Activity:
8/1/25 Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) buyer of 5000 Dec $75 ITM calls at $20.10 as the Sept calls adjust
8/1/25 Ethereum ETF (ETHA) buyer of 4500 Aug 22nd $28 calls at $1.38 to $1.61
8/1/25 Tesla (TSLA) seeing 3500 Aug 29th $290 puts sell to open $8.20 to $8.40
8/1/25 Walmart (WMT) sees 1000 Sept 5th (W) $99 calls buy $3.27 adjusting Aug 22nd (W)
8/1/25 Lululemon (LULU) opening sales of 1250 Sept $195 puts at $14
8/1/25 Lululemon (LULU) 300 Jan 2027 $160 short puts open 20.10
8/1/25 Lululemon (LULU) also 400 June $160 short puts open $14.65
8/1/25 eBay (EBAY) 575 Dec $90 calls buy $6.15 offers
8/1/25 Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 500 March $95 short puts open $6.30
8/1/25 AppLovin (APP) late day large buyer of 2500 Oct $330 ITM calls for $77.57
8/1/25 Shopify (SHOP) 500 August $118 puts sold to open at $6.90 bids
8/1/25 Exxon (XOM) 1250 Nov $110 calls bought 5.30 to 5.70
8/1/25 Expand Energy (EXE) buyer 2000 Sept $105 calls rolls up the $100 strike
8/1/25 ConocoPhillips (COP) with 3000 June $65 puts sell to open $1.68
8/1/25 Bloom Energy (BE) opening sale 2000 Sept $37 puts at $3.70
8/1/25 American Express (AXP) opening sale 450 March $330 calls $12.65
8/1/25 Circle (CRCL) 1250 August $200 calls sold to buy the $160 puts
8/1/25 Insmed (INSM) 500 Sept 97.50 short puts opening 4.10
8/1/25 AbbVie (ABBV) buyer 400 Feb $220 calls $5 offer
8/1/25 GE Vernova (GEV) 1600 Sept $610 puts sell to open 6.20 to 6.10
8/1/25 GE Vernova (GEV) buyers of 450 Oct $680 calls at $50.20 to $50.80
8/1/25 Joby Aviation (JOBY) 3000 Jan $12 short puts open $1.15
8/1/25 MP Materials (MP) buyers of 1300 Sept $85 calls at $2.10
8/1/25 Cameco (CCJ) buyers of 4000 Sept $85 calls at $1.23 to $1.26
8/1/25 Vertiv (VRT) 6950 Sept 110 short puts open 1.49
8/1/25 Reddit (RDDT) size buy 1000 Oct $200 calls $16.29 to $16.40
8/1/25 Palantir (PLTR) 10,000 August 8th (W) 165/180 call spreads bought
8/1/25 Astera Labs (ALAB) buyers of 1700 Oct $150/$170 call spreads at $4.90
8/1/25 Astera Labs (ALAB) also buyers in Sept $150/170 spreads
8/1/25 Broadcom (AVGO) buyers 550 Sept 5th $300 calls at $10.95
8/1/25 Lam Research (LRCX) buyer of 1940 Sept 5th $100 calls at $2.24
8/1/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) buyers of 1150 June $320 calls at $9.00
7/31/25 Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) buyer 1000 Oct $577 calls 16.18 offer
7/31/25 Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) buyer of 2500 Sept $231 calls at $3.04
7/31/25 Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) size buy 2000 Dec 31st (W) $67 calls for $8.75
7/31/25 Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 2700 Sept 5th $29 calls bought at $2.26 to $2.40
7/31/25 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) buyer of 3000 Dec 31st (Q) $60 calls for $4.60 offer
7/31/25 Regional Banks ETF (KRE) also 2400 Dec $67 calls bought $1.69
7/31/25 On Holding (ONON) buyer 3000 Sept $50 calls $3 to $3.05
7/31/25 Mattel (MAT) opening sale 8000 Jan $15 puts at $0.57
7/31/25 Shark Ninja (SN) buyers of 425 Nov $145 calls at $8.70
7/31/25 Uber (UBER) size opening sale 2200 March $85 puts for $7.83
7/31/25 Uber (UBER) buyer 1000 Nov 92.5/105 call spreads
7/31/25 Shopify (SHOP) another size put sale as 1350 June $120 sell to open 18.16
7/31/25 Shopify (SHOP) 950 August $130 ITM puts now sell to open 11.15
7/31/25 Robinhood Markets (HOOD) opening sales of 1000 Jan105 puts at $15.85 to $15.50
7/31/25 Eli Lilly (LLY) sees 550 Dec $580 puts sell to open $10.30
7/31/25 GE Vernova (GEV) sees buyers of 650 Sept $680 calls at $36 to $40
7/31/25 Howmet Aerospace (HWM) 3000 Sept $165 short puts open 2.40
7/31/25 Howmet Aerospace (HWM) sees 2745 Sept 12th $160 puts sell to open $1.30
7/31/25 Howmet Aerospace (HWM) also 1100 Sept $160 puts sell to open $2.00
7/31/25 Modine Manufacturing (MOD) buyer 1500 August $135 calls $6.20 as the $120 calls adjust again
7/31/25 Quanta Services (PWR) 700 Sept $430 calls bought as some Aug $420 adjust
7/31/25 Cameco (CCJ) opening sales of 13,040 Sept 5th $67 puts at $0.59
7/31/25 Cameco (CCJ) 9000 Sept $65 short puts open 0.89
7/31/25 Nebius Group (NBIS) 1000 Aug 22nd (W) $52 calls buy $5.40 to $6.40
7/31/25 Meta (META) seeing 1000 Jan $720 short puts open near $32
7/31/25 Meta (META) also 1600 Sept $710 short puts open $6.90
7/31/25 Microsoft (MSFT) 1000 Aug 29th (W) $540 puts sell to open 10.80
7/31/25 Microsoft (MSFT) 1300 Dec 2026 $560 calls are bought for $8M as Dec 450 adjust
7/31/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) opening sales of 11,000 Sept 5th $240 puts at $8.10
7/31/25 Taiwan Semi (TSM) also a massive opening seller of 10,000 Sept 5th $245 puts at $11.10
7/31/25 Amazon (AMZN) buyer of 1000 Dec 2027 $255 calls at $42.56 to $43.90
7/31/25 Palantir (PLTR) buyer 1500 March $240 calls $9.54
7/31/25 Fortinet (FTNT) 750 June $75 puts sell to open $3.47
7/31/25 Oklo (OKLO) 1650 Nov $95 calls buying nearly $2M worth as August 70 adjust